贵州近50年来的径流过程时空演变特征及驱动因素诊断

本文以贵州10个径流站覆盖近50年的实测月径流资料(1956~2000)及19个气象站同期实测资料为基础,结合Mann-Kendall趋势分析和流量历时曲线FDCs等方法,分析了时间变异点(1986年)前后贵州8大主要流域的径流过程的年度和季节变化、洪枯水变化规律及其演变的空间特征。结果表明:(1)从时间规律上看,贵州主要江河近50年间径流变化大部分测站呈现小幅增加趋势,个别下游水文站径流呈明显增加趋势;(2)1987~2000年期间贵州的汛期径流和1956~1986年期间相比更加集中了;(3)贵州大多数水文站月径流洪水指标(Q5)在1986年后有不同幅度增加,而枯水指标(Q95)1986年后涨跌互现。与之对应的洪水指数(Q5/Q50)及枯水指数(Q95/Q50)也存在类似规律;(4)从空间规律上看,贵州西北部地区和东南部地区径流减少,其它地方(主要集中在乌江上游)增加。贵州1986年前后近50年时期内的降水及蒸发的空间规律与其径流变化空间规律是基本吻合的,说明贵州过去近50年来的径流过程变化主要是由气候变化引起的。本文的研究结果对保证并促进贵州地区区域水资源、生态与环境和谐健康的可持续发展具有非常重要的战略意义和科学价值。     

关于高等学校引入低碳教育的思考

全球气候变化问题日益受到全人类的关注,国际社会加快了温室气体减排,发展低碳经济的步伐。解决气候变暖问题,发展低碳经济,实现可持续发展,必须通过低碳教育培养全民的低碳意识。大学生是传播低碳理念和实践低碳发展的生力军,提高大学生的低碳意识有利于提高全民族的低碳意识。为此,高校必然成为进行低碳教育的重要阵地。高等学校应在课程设置、学生生活实践以及学校管理等诸多方面贯彻低碳教育的理念。     

羊草草原碳循环过程的模拟与验证

根据内蒙古典型羊草草原碳通量和生物量观测数据,验证VIP(Vegetation Interface Proces-ses)模型,并模拟分析1958—2007年该生态系统碳循环特征及其与环境因子的相关关系。结果显示:VIP模型能够较准确地模拟地上生物量(R2=0.70)和净生态系统生产力NEP(R2=0.57)的变化趋势。羊草草原生态系统总初级生产力(GPP)、净初级生产力(NPP)和生态系统呼吸(Re)在1958—1973年间下降,1973—1993年间增长,1993年后又出现下降的趋势。与环境因子的相关性分析表明,GPP、NPP和Re随CO2和降水的增多而增大,随温度升高和降水的减少而降低,其中降水量与碳通量相关性最高,呼吸与温度、降水、CO2均存在一定程度的正相关关系。NEP年际变化较大,主要受控于年降水量,以228 mm为界,年降水量大于此值时,NEP为正的概率较大。     

Testing emissions equivalency metrics against climate policy goals

The climate impacts of energy technologies are frequently assessed using equivalency metrics, which convert emissions of multiple greenhouse gases to a common scale. Numerous metrics have been proposed that incorporate, in different ways, information about the time-dependent impacts of gases. However, more focus has been placed on proposing metrics than on testing their performance in real-world use cases. Here we present a testing approach that simulates how metrics would affect the selection of energy technology portfolios that comply with a CO₂-equivalent emissions cap. Unintended radiative forcing outcomes can occur, emphasizing the need to test metrics in a practical context. We demonstrate the approach for policies designed to limit radiative forcing and discuss extensions to limits on temperature or economic impacts. Metric performance is evaluated by (i) how much actual radiative forcing overshoots the intended stabilization level and (ii) the level of energy consumption permitted. We use this testing approach to study a variety of metrics based on an estimated radiative forcing stabilization time under two climate policy goals. We find that these goal-inspired metrics, if chosen carefully, can exhibit performance improvements over the standard global warming potential (GWP) while maintaining its transparency and ease-of-use. These alternative metrics can significantly reduce the overshoot in radiative forcing observed with the GWP, at a small cost in energy consumption. Moreover, simple metrics can exhibit similar performance improvements to more complex ones.     

A Regional Cadmium Inventory: Interpretation and management

Local authorities in Sweden are responsible for the management of sewage treatment and municipal solid waste. Due to this, they handle large flows and stocks of materials and substances that may be harmful for the environment. However, knowledge about these flows is sometimes deficient. In addition, the capacity to influence the composition of these flows is mainly beyond the jurisdiction of the local authorities. Flow-oriented studies, such as substance flow analysis (SFA), have proven to be a useful tool in order to understand and quantify these flows. Furthermore, SFA is sometimes claimed to be beneficial to the process of decision making, since it generates comprehensive overviews of the substance in focus. However, quantification of stocks and flows of a certain substance does not necessarily provide sufficient information for environmental management on the local level. Hence, for SFA to further contribute to the environmental management process, there is also a need for development in the interpretation of the results. The main objective of this paper is to contribute to the discussion about (1) how to interpret the results from SFA and (2) how the results from an SFA can be used in environmental management by local authorities. A tentative framework for interpretation is discussed in the paper, focusing on five aspects: total material quantities, exposure to humans and the environment, resource economy, function and capacity to influence the substance flows. Furthermore, the paper discusses the suggested framework applied to results of a regional cadmium inventory.     

“At the water's edge”: community voices on climate change

The photovoice research project, “At the water's edge”, which gives voice to communities exploring the threats and impact of climate change and rising sea levels on coastal communities, was conducted during an environmental art symposium in the Noosa Biosphere Reserve, Australia in June 2009. Photos by participants illustrated both local and global threats and reflected psychological tension between global and local action. This research partnership with the local people demonstrated an innovative visualisation technique which can be used to collaboratively build capacity and consensus about adaptation to climate change. It also contributed to the Biosphere Reserve's educational and cultural aims in relation to climate change.     

Examining municipal response to a provincial climate action planning mandate in British Columbia,Canada

The engagement of UK local authorities is vital if national government is to meet its climate change commitments. However, with no mandatory targets at local government level, other drivers must explain engagement. Using a Geographic Information System, this study compares the spatial distribution of action on climate change based on past actions and stated intentions to a suite of relevant independent variables. The Action Index created is among the first to quantify climate change engagement beyond a simple binary measure and provides a useful comparative study to recent work in the USA. The Index enables investigation of both mitigation and adaptation, which show different trends in relation to some variables. The study shows that action is strongest where the voting habits of the local population suggest environmental concern and where neighbouring local authorities are also engaging in action on climate change. Physical vulnerability to the effects of climate change is a motivator for action only where the dangers are obvious. Action is less likely where other resource-intensive issues such as crime and housing exist within a local authority area.     

Community energy plans in Canadian cities: success and barriers in implementation

Climate change and sustainable development concerns have motivated some municipalities in Canada to develop community energy plans, which focus on energy needs at the local level for the development of efficient, economical and environmental energy systems. Five Canadian cities that were early adopters of community energy planning principles were studied to assess whether implementation has occurred and what barriers have been experienced. The cities achieved success in the implementation of energy management in municipal operations despite barriers in jurisdiction, perception of cost, communication and capacity, but energy management in the community had not been fully implemented and long-term changes were not prevalent. While reductions were made in the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions produced by municipal operations, the community's overall GHG emissions were not significantly reduced. Long-term impacts on a city's function and growth will be key if community energy planning is to significantly impact community-wide GHG emissions and energy use.     

Governing climate change for a just city: challenges and lessons from Maputo,Mozambique

As new forms of governance for climate change emerge in African cities, will they enable emancipatory and socially progressive transformations or will they exacerbate existing inequality, poverty and vulnerability patterns? This paper presents one of the case studies developed by UN-Habitat Cities and Climate Change Initiative in Maputo, Mozambique. The case analyses first, the production of urban vulnerabilities under climate change, and second, the existing governance arrangements for climate change in the city. Building on the lessons of the case study, the paper argues that to ensure that new forms of climate change governance lead to socially and environmentally just outcomes climate change interventions should, at least, meet two conditions: first, they should consider the close interactions between social and ecological elements and, specially, how patterns of urban inequality interact with environmental factors; second, they should recognise the opportunities in African cities through a broad notion of governance that looks beyond the government as the sole agent of urban change.     

Transformative climate change adaptation: bridging existing approaches with post-foundational insights on justice

ABSTRACT

Climate adaptation is a complex policy domain, spanning multiple sectors, scales and actors, and wherein those most at risk have the least power. The influence of linear positivist models of science uptake are proving ineffective in a world with increasingly concentrated wealth and power, institutional barriers, and rapidly growing risks facing the many. A plurality of approaches is needed to better examine those dynamics of climate adaptation which are often invisible in models of science uptake – equity, the value of contestation, path dependency – and to consider how to empower communities to find solutions. In this conceptual paper, we argue that bridging existing positivist and interpretivist methods with insights from post-foundational theory so as to underpin pluralism and re-orient ethical principles of justice, strengthens the capacity of social research to support transformative climate adaptation. Principles are proposed to facilitate such bridging.