非饱和土壤渗透系数空间不确定性对溶质运移的影响

包气带渗透系数的不确定性是影响非饱和带溶质运移的主要因素。应用贝叶斯方法对非饱和土壤渗透系数进行前处理,使用Monte-Carlo方法模拟其空间不确定性,并通过HYDRUS-1D模型对溶质运移进行数值模拟,研究包气带渗透系数的空间不确定性对溶质运移的影响。结果表明,由于包气带渗透性的不确定性使得溶质浓度分布呈现明显的不确定性,包气带内不同点的浓度值相差很大。与忽略包气带土性参数空间不确定性的模拟结果相对比,考虑包气带渗透系数不确定性的模拟结果与实际情况更加接近,更具合理性和科学性。同时,根据模拟结果,对实际工作中进行地下水数值模拟时溶质初始浓度输入值的确定提出相应建议。     

江苏省太湖流域水功能区纳污能力及限制排污总量研究

水功能区纳污能力及限制排污总量研究是制定区域水污染控制规划的基础。依据《江苏省地表水(环境)功能区划》,结合江苏省太湖流域现状水质和污染概况,针对河网区和湖库区分别采用一维、二维非稳态模型,计算江苏省太湖流域水功能区纳污能力,在此基础上,引入最大污染物入河量,核定50%、75%和90%水文保证率下的最大污染物入河量分别为2015年、2020年和2030年限排总量。结果表明:(1)CODMn和氨氮纳污能力分别为284 803 t/a和22 448 t/a;(2)2015年CODMn和氨氮限排总量分别为221 867 t/a和20 520 t/a,2020年和2030年限排总量递减,均小于纳污能力;(3)CODMn和氨氮入河量削减率分别为21.8%和46.3%,与水质超标率相差均在25%以内,基本相符。江苏省太湖流域纳污能力、限排总量、污染物入河量削减率和水质超标率之间关系合理,计算结果合理。研究成果为太湖流域水环境控制规划提供决策依据。     

用循环经济理论指导工业区环境影响评价

区域开发的不确定性等给区域开发的环境影响评价(REIA)提出了较高的要求。循环经济按照自然生态学的原理,形成"资源-产品-消费-再生资源"的物质闭循环的流动过程。融入循环经济理念,将弥补传统区域开发环境影响评价模式的不足,更好发挥其在项目审批及环境管理中的作用。     

Environmental assessment of mercury dispersion, transformation and bioavailability in the Lake Victoria Goldfields, Tanzania

Environmental dispersion and transformation of mercury discharged from gold mining operations has been investigated in field and laboratory studies in order to provide better understanding of the degree of mercury (Hg) pollution and bioavailability in the Lake Victoria goldfields (LVGF) ecosystems. This paper reviews results already published elsewhere and presents additional data on Hg dynamics in the LVGF. Studies conducted at the Mugusu and Rwamagaza artisanal mines indicated different degrees of Hg contamination and dispersion in environmental matrices. Mercury concentration in contaminated river sediments near the Mugusu mine varied from 6.0 to 0.5 mg/kg on a dry weight basis. The highest Hg contamination levels (165-232 mg/kg) were associated with mine tailings at the Rwamagaza mine. Mercury concentrations in fish representing different dietary habits on the southwestern shore of Lake Victoria at the Nungwe Bay were very low (2-35 microg/kg) and thought to represent background levels. These and other results suggested that the use of Hg in gold extraction in the LVGF has not caused high Hg levels in lake fish. The study of Hg in lichens showed Parmelia lichen to be an effective bioindicator for atmospheric Hg contamination due to Hg emissions from gold-amalgam firing and purification operations. The Hg levels in the lichens around the Mugusu mine ranged from 3.1 to 0.1 microg/g; the highest levels were recorded in the lichens sampled close to gold-amalgam processing sites. The regional background level in the Parmelia lichen was 0.05-0.10 microg/g, with a mean level of 0.07 microg/g. Studies of Hg transformation in the mine tailings revealed unexpectedly high methylmercury (MeHg) levels in the tailings (629-710 ng/g), which indicated that oxidation and methylation of metallic Hg in the tailings occurred at significant levels under tropical conditions. Re-equilibration of the tailings with freshwater (FW) indicated the MeHg was firmly bound in the tailings and therefore very little MeHg was released to the water column (0.2-1.5 ng/L). The methylation of Hg in tropical loamy clay soil contaminated with HgCl(2) (5 mg Hg/kg) yielded MeHg concentrations of 11 and 14 ng/g when inundated with seawater and FW, respectively, for 4 weeks. Little MeHg was transferred from the soil to the equilibrated water (< or = 0.4 ng/L). Atmospheric exposure of the soil pre-inundated with FW resulted in net degradation of MeHg during the 1st week of exposure, followed by net production and accumulation of MeHg in the soil (up to 15.5 ng/g) during atmospheric desiccation. Mercury uptake by fish from the Hg(0)-contaminated aquatic sediment-tailings system in the aquarium experiment was found to be low, suggesting the low availability of MeHg for bioaccumulation in the system. These and other results provide useful insights into Hg transformation, mobility and bioavailability in tropical aquatic systems affected by Hg pollution from gold mining operations.     

Health and environmental assessment of mercury exposure in a gold mining community in Western Mindanao, Philippines

The small-scale gold mining activities using mercury began in the late 1980s in Sibutad, Western Mindanao. It is located very near the Murcielagos Bay with tailing ponds directly discharging into bodies of water. This cross-sectional study aimed to determine the health and environmental effects of gold mining activities on the community. Residents were randomly selected and classified into two groups, namely, the directly exposed and indirectly exposed populations using a set inclusion criteria. Complete medical and laboratory examinations were performed. Environmental and biologic samples were collected for total mercury and methylmercury determinations. The results showed that the directly exposed group had significantly higher mean blood total mercury and methylmercury levels in comparison with the indirectly exposed population. Although there were no significant differences between hair total mercury and methylmercury levels, there was a trend for higher levels of these biomarkers among the directly exposed residents as compared with the unexposed group. The absence of statistically significant differences may be attributable to the small sample size. Ambient air quality monitoring for mercury exceeded the allowable levels. However, levels of mercury in drinking water and sediments were within allowable limits. Frequency of gastrointestinal complaints was significantly associated with elevated hair methylmercury levels (p=0.02). Also, there appears to be a trend towards higher blood total mercury levels and frequency of gastrointestinal complaints (p=0.09). An interesting finding in this study was the increasing incidence of elevated diastolic blood pressure with elevated hair total mercury levels (p=0.07). Mercury storage at home is a risk factor.     

辽宁团山海蚀地貌自然保护区选划研究

根据2003年11月辽宁团山海蚀地貌自然保护区选划研究现场调查,探讨了该区海蚀地貌的成因,评价了海域环境质量和生物多样性,依据海洋自然保护区类型与级别划分原则(GBT17504-1998),确定了保护区类型,并采用定性与定量相结合方法给出了保护区级别。结果表明,保护区海域环境质量总体尚好,生态群落正常,保护区类型符合《海洋自然保护区分类原则》(类别III)相关标准,主要保护对象为海蚀地貌景观,该保护区可建成国家级,这在全国沿海尚不多见。     

近距煤层无煤柱协调开采布局研究与应用*

为了解决老母矿近距煤层的开采难题,通过理论分析并利用FLAC 3D数值模拟软件进行模拟,分析出煤层前后推进150 m是最合理的步距,侧向采动支撑压力在15~50 m内存在影响。基于这些理论数据,确定回采巷道的合理位置,进而确定以内错距离范围为30~60 m的内错式布置方式布置巷道和无煤柱协调开采布局,并进行井下工程应用。最后把无煤柱协调开采布局与双巷掘进开采布局对比,得出无煤柱协调开采布局的先进性和优势,研究结果可为同类条件下的工程应用提供借鉴。     

数据挖掘在预测组织事故防控效果中的应用*

为进一步探索数据挖据技术在组织事故预防工作中的融入性与适用性,基于24Model构建事故预控基础模型,通过预测准确率数值及接受者操作特性曲线（ROC曲线）对比分析随机森林（RF）、支持向量机(SVM)、决策树（DT）与神经网络（NN）4种方法对组织事故防控效果的预测性能。结果表明:针对事故率控制（Y1）、职业危害预防（Y2）、财产损失3类预测目标（Y3）,RF方法均能达到较高的准确率及稳定性,具有较优的预测性能。根据特征重要度（FI）排序,明确对组织事故水平影响最显著的因素为安全实践活动认知（SC5）及安全管理程序文件（SMS3）,FI值均大于0.150 0。研究结果可为有效预测组织事故防控效果提供方法依据,同时为企业安全工作的规划设计提供思路。     

呼吸效应对矿井封闭火区氧浓度的影响分析

为避免因火区封闭导致重大安全事故发生,通过采集某矿井1 d内3个不同监测点的大气压力变化情况,建立大气压力波动模型并分析计算,同时建立火区内外压差100,750 Pa情形下的氧浓度模型进而获得火区内侧氧气浓度因呼吸效应,在不同压差、体积大小火区、风阻、瓦斯涌出量、封闭时刻等多因素耦合影响下随时间的变化规律,以评估火区危险性。研究结果表明:井下大气随地面大气周期波动,封闭火区内、外侧之间的气压差因外界大气波动呈现16 h的余弦波动和8 h的线性波动周期变化;密闭质量好的火区具有更好地抗干扰性,内侧氧浓度的降低主要依靠瓦斯稀释;密闭质量差的火区,内侧氧浓度易受到火区涌出瓦斯、外界涌入大气双重影响;火区氧浓度在2%~12%之间波动,以至火区存在发生瓦斯爆炸的可能性;火区内外压差较大时,氧浓度波动变化幅度更大,危险作用持续时间更长。结合火区氧浓度波动模型,可有效地对矿井火区采取安全的防范措施,避免瓦斯爆炸事故发生。     

走向工作面贯通上山与支架快速回撤技术

针对走向工作面停采线与上山之间的护巷煤柱造成煤炭损失,支架回撤工艺复杂、巷道掘进量大等问题,提出走向工作面贯通上山与支架快速回撤技术。工作面贯通采区上山,利用上山回撤支架。在贯通前,利用压力拱模型分析剩余煤柱应力变化规律,并结合极限平衡区公式,确定让压煤柱为8 m;对贯通前基本顶合理断裂位置、让压调节机制、末采阶段采高进行了分析确定,并采取上山巷内补强支护及挂绳铺网措施。贯通上山后,首先利用支架对上山留巷,完成留巷后,利用上山回撤支架,先将上部端头3架逆时针旋转90°作为掩护架,在对剩余支架逐架回撤时,3个掩护架呈现台阶型。提出的技术取消了护巷煤柱及回撤通道,提高了煤炭采出率,减少了巷道掘进量,简化了回撤工艺。