Comparative Analysis of Inundation Mapping Approaches for the 2016 Flood in the Brazos River,Texas

Accurate and timely flood inundation maps serve as crucial information for hydrologists, first‐responders, and decision makers of natural disaster management agencies. In this study, two modeling approaches are applied to estimate the inundation area for a large flooding event that occurred in May 2016 in the Brazos River: (1) Height Above the Nearest Drainage combined with National Hydrograph Dataset Plus (NHDPlus‐HAND) and (2) International River Interface Cooperative — Flow and Sediment Transport with Morphological Evolution of Channels (iRIC‐FaSTMECH). The inundation extents simulated from these two modeling approaches are then compared against the observed inundation extents derived from a Landsat 8 satellite image. The simulated results from NHDPlus‐HAND and iRIC‐FaSTMECH show 56% and 70% of overlaps with the observed flood extents, respectively. A modified version of the NHDPlus‐HAND model, considering networked catchment behaviors, is also tested with an improved fitness of 67%. This study suggests that NHDPlus‐HAND has the potential for real‐time continental inundation forecast due to its low computational cost and ease to couple with the National Water Model. Better performance of NHDPlus‐HAND can be achieved by considering the inter‐catchment flows during extreme riverine flood events. Overall, this study presents a comprehensive examination made of remote sensing compared with HAND‐based inundation mapping in a region of complex topography.     

Population Viability Analysis with Species Occurrence Data from Museum Collections

Abstract: The most comprehensive data on many species come from scientific collections. Thus, we developed a method of population viability analysis (PVA) in which this type of occurrence data can be used. In contrast to classical PVA, our approach accounts for the inherent observation error in occurrence data and allows the estimation of the population parameters needed for viability analysis. We tested the sensitivity of the approach to spatial resolution of the data, length of the time series, sampling effort, and detection probability with simulated data and conducted PVAs for common, rare, and threatened species. We compared the results of these PVAs with results of standard method PVAs in which observation error is ignored. Our method provided realistic estimates of population growth terms and quasi‐extinction risk in cases in which the standard method without observation error could not. For low values of any of the sampling variables we tested, precision decreased, and in some cases biased estimates resulted. The results of our PVAs with the example species were consistent with information in the literature on these species. Our approach may facilitate PVA for a wide range of species of conservation concern for which demographic data are lacking but occurrence data are readily available.     

北京地铁1号线A站乘客疏散行为实测研究

地铁作为人员密集场所,一旦发生突发事件,如何在突发事件下合理快速的组织地铁乘客疏散至安全区域,是地铁运营部门急需解决的重大问题。通过对北京地铁1号线A站常态下人员疏散情况的实测,分析研究不同人群在不同地点的疏散速度及乘客在疏散路径选择上的差异等行为特征,并通过实测,统计出乘客从站台疏散至地铁各出入口所需的时间。研究结果为地铁乘客疏散行为特征研究及疏散计算模型边界条件的设置提供支撑。     

气相色谱-脉冲氦离子化检测法(GC-PDHID)分析大气中分子氢(H2)浓度

在商用Agilent7890A型气相色谱的基础上,通过自组装、集成及调试,建成了基于气相色谱-脉冲氦离子化检测器(GCPDHID,gas chromatography-pulsed discharge helium ionization detector)观测大气中H2浓度的高精度分析系统.系统采用保留时间定性,峰高定量,最低检测限约为1×10-9(摩尔分数,下同).对浓度约为600×10-9的标气重复进样140次用峰高定量的标准偏差优于0.3×10-9.系统对409.30×10-9~867.74×10-9浓度范围的大气H2具有较好的线性响应.系统使用2瓶标气定量,满足世界气象组织/全球大气观测计划(WMO/GAW)对本底大气H2观测的比对目标.2013年1~11月在广州城区开展大气H2采样观测,采集的样品运回北京实验室利用所建系统进行浓度分析,结果表明该城区大气H2浓度在450×10-9~700×10-9之间波动,观测到最低值出现在每日14:00(北京时,下同),最高值在20:00,其大气H2季节变化趋势与北半球同纬度站点情况类似.     

彝良5．7级地震前钻孔应变观测到的前兆异常

使用滇黔地区钻孔应变观测台站的资料,对2012年9月7日彝良Ms5．7地震前异常现象进行分析,结果表明,震前昭通、贵阳台钻孔应变出现长趋势等异常,其他台站在震前几小时到5天出现曲线异常波动、固体潮变形等异常现象。     

基于船载走航气溶胶质谱技术的海洋气溶胶研究

利用船载走航单颗粒气溶胶质谱仪(SPAMS)对东南沿海海洋气溶胶进行在线观测,获得了近岸海区大气气溶胶化学组成分布特性,并对气溶胶谱特征及其来源进行分析.结果表明:从近岸到远海,气溶胶的浓度呈下降趋势;在近岸海区气溶胶主要受港口及码头周边的汽车、船舶及燃煤等工业排放源的影响;随着离陆地距离的增加,海源性气溶胶的比重上升;海洋气溶胶在观测范围内呈单峰分布,峰值粒径在0.5μm左右,大多数颗粒主要集中在0.2~0.8μm的粒径段;近岸气溶胶元素碳谱峰强,正谱图中K~+元素具有很强的谱峰,负离子谱中HSO_4~-谱峰信号明显,但缺少NO_3~-和NO_2~-谱峰信号;远海气溶胶中元素碳的谱峰强度明显降低,正谱图中Na~+的谱峰很强,并出现Mg~+、Ca~+和NaCl~+的谱峰信号;负离子谱出现了明显的海洋生物特征气溶胶甲基磺酸MSA~-、CN~-、O~-和HSO_4~-等的谱峰信息.表明该观测海区的气溶胶组成复杂,同时受陆源排放气溶胶和海源气溶胶的影响.     

水华藻斑漂移速度时变特征研究

以太湖水华藻斑为研究对象,采用自主研发的藻斑漂移原位观测技术,研究分析了不同时间尺度下太湖蓝藻水华易发区藻斑漂移速度的变化特征.结果表明：日内藻斑漂移速率在（0.0793±0.0135）~（0.146±0.0318）m/s范围内变化,藻斑漂移速度的北向分量在-0.0896~0.0247m/s之间,东向分量在-0.0157~0.0029m/s之间.漂移速率日均值变化呈现出锯齿式交替特征即增加-减少-再增加的往复循环,变化范围为（0.0499±0.0141）~（0.1580±0.0120）m/s,漂移方向以北向为主.藻斑漂移速度的月际变化明显,6月~8月,向东漂移的占比逐渐降低,而向西漂移的占比逐渐增加,此期间漂移方向均以北向为主.漂移速率6月上旬最小,均值为0.0680m/s,7月上旬达到最大,均值为0.1350m/s,7月中旬~8月下旬水华藻斑漂移速率在0.0800m/s附近波动.     

南京、新沂地震台地电地磁同场观测对地磁干扰的改善

根据南京地震台一系列地电地磁同场观测时对地磁干扰的研究试验结果,南京地震台在新地电场地建设和新沂地震台在地电外线路的改造中,都注意使供电线路的“单线段”远离地磁观测室,使地电对地磁的干扰得到了明显的改善。     

基于不同周期PM2.5组成高时间分辨观测的PMF源解析研究

于2017年1月1日—12月31日对南京市城区大气细粒子(PM_2.5)化学组分（元素、水溶性离子和碳质组分）的小时质量浓度进行连续观测,采用正矩阵因子分析（Positive Matrix Factorization,PMF）模型分别基于全年观测数据（PMF全年）和逐月观测数据（PMF月份）进行源解析,比较不同观测周期源解析结果的差异以及对PM_2.5各组分浓度估算的准确性.结果表明：不同观测周期下,PMF源解析结果中因子类型未发生改变,但因子组成和贡献分布存在较大差异.由于PMF模型假设同一观测周期内源成分谱不发生变化,只有基于逐月观测数据的PMF源解析才能体现全年范围内因子组成和贡献分布的变化.尽管PMF全年和PMF月份的分析结果均能准确估算PM_2.5组分的月均浓度,但PMF月份结果对各组分小时浓度的估算值和观测值在时间变化上更一致.这是因为PMF模型要求对各组分浓度的平均值进行拟合,易低估（或高估）PM_2.5组分在观测周期内的极大（或极小）值.因此,基于短期（例如,月份）高分辨观测数据的PMF分析...     

干旱区云凝结核分布及其影响因子的观测研究

利用DMT CCN仪对宁夏盐池、银川地区地面及高空的云凝结核(CCN)进行实时连续观测.大量资料分析结果表明, CCN日变化明显,受人为因素影响,清晨和傍晚出现高值.夜晚温度与CCN浓度呈正相关,白天相反;强降水对CCN具有一定冲刷作用;沙尘气溶胶没有有效增加盐池地区的CCN浓度.与华北地区比较,银川、盐池地区CCN浓度偏低.此外,研究表明,过饱和度越高,活化CCN浓度越大.根据N=CSK拟合活化谱,银川属于典型大陆性核谱.由于云内清除作用,高空CCN浓度下降明显,但逆温层的存在使得该区CCN浓度累积增加.