地震监测台站开展防震减灾科普宣传的实践探索

科普宣传是防震减灾工作的重要组成部分。在传统科普宣传形式之外,如何利用大量专业地震监测台站开展科普宣传是一个重要课题。通过分析我国防震减灾科普宣传的成绩和不足,结合几年来北京市地震局地震台站开展防震减灾科普宣传实例,提炼归纳出利用地震监测台站开展科普宣传的独特优势,提出应该转变传统科普宣传思维模式,切实发挥专业地震监测台站防震减灾科普宣传的作用,并就如何加强地震监测台站的科普宣传工作提出了具体建议。     

Cost‐Effectiveness of Alternative Conservation Strategies with Application to the Pacific Leatherback Turtle

Although holistic conservation addressing all sources of mortality for endangered species or stocks is the preferred conservation strategy, limited budgets require a criterion to prioritize conservation investments. We compared the cost‐effectiveness of nesting site and at‐sea conservation strategies for Pacific leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea). We sought to determine which conservation strategy or mix of strategies would produce the largest increase in population growth rate per dollar. Alternative strategies included protection of nesters and their eggs at nesting beaches in Indonesia, gear changes, effort restrictions, and caps on turtle takes in the Hawaiian (U.S.A.) longline swordfish fishery, and temporal and area closures in the California (U.S.A.) drift gill net fishery. We used a population model with a biological metric to measure the effects of conservation alternatives. We normalized all effects by cost to prioritize those strategies with the greatest biological effect relative to its economic cost. We used Monte Carlo simulation to address uncertainty in the main variables and to calculate probability distributions for cost‐effectiveness measures. Nesting beach protection was the most cost‐effective means of achieving increases in leatherback populations. This result creates the possibility of noncompensatory bycatch mitigation, where high‐bycatch fisheries invest in protecting nesting beaches. An example of this practice is U.S. processors of longline tuna and California drift gill net fishers that tax themselves to finance low‐cost nesting site protection. Under certain conditions, fisheries interventions, such as technologies that reduce leatherback bycatch without substantially decreasing target species catch, can be cost‐effective. Reducing bycatch in coastal areas where bycatch is high, particularly adjacent to nesting beaches, may be cost‐effective, particularly, if fisheries in the area are small and of little commercial value. Rentabilidad de Estrategias de Conservación Alternativas Aplicadas a Tortugas Laúd del Pacífico     

Carbon accounting of material substitution with biomass: Case studies for Austria investigated with IPCC default and alternative approaches

There is evidence that the replacement of carbon-intensive products with bio-based substitutes (‘material substitution with biomass’) can be highly efficient in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Based on two case studies (CS1/2) for Austria, potential benefits of material substitution in comparison to fuel substitution are analysed. GHG savings are calculated according to default IPCC approaches (Tier 2 method assuming first-order decay) and with more realistic approaches based on distribution functions. In CS1, high savings are achieved by using wood residues for the production of insulating boards instead of energy. The superiority of material substitution is due to the establishment of a long-term carbon storage, the high emission factor of wood in comparison to natural gas and higher efficiencies of gas-fired facilities.The biomass feedstock in CS2 is lignocellulosic ethanol being used for bio-ethylene production (material substitution) or replacing gasoline (fuel substitution). GHG savings are mainly due to lower production emissions of bio-ethylene in comparison to conventional ethylene and significantly lower than in CS1 (per unit of biomass consumed). While CS1 is highly robust to parameter variation, the long-term projections in CS2 are quite speculative.To create adequate incentives for including material substitution in national climate strategies, shortcomings of current default accounting methods must be addressed. Under current methods the GHG savings in both case studies would not (fully) materialize in the national GHG inventory. The main reason is that accounting of wood products is confined to the proportion derived from domestic harvest, whereas imported biomass used for energy is treated as carbon-neutral. Further inadequacies of IPCC default accounting methods include the assumption of exponential decay and the disregard of advanced bio-based products.     

Compliance with and ecosystem function of biodiversity offsets in North American and European freshwaters

Land-use change via human development is a major driver of biodiversity loss. To reduce these impacts, billions of dollars are spent on biodiversity offsets. However, studies evaluating offset project effectiveness that examine components such as the overall compliance and function of projects remain rare. We reviewed 577 offsetting projects in freshwater ecosystems that included the metrics project size, type of aquatic system (e.g., wetland and creek), offsetting measure (e.g., enhancement, restoration, and creation), and an assessment of the projects’ compliance and functional success. Project information was obtained from scientific and government databases and gray literature. Despite considerable investment in offsetting projects, crucial problems persisted. Although compliance and function were related to each other, a high level of compliance did not guarantee a high degree of function. However, large projects relative to area had better function than small projects. Function improved when projects targeted productivity or specific ecosystem features and when multiple complementary management targets were in place. Restorative measures were more likely to achieve targets than creating entirely new ecosystems. Altogether the relationships we found highlight specific ecological processes that may help improve offsetting outcomes.     

An adaptive plan for prioritizing road sections for fencing to reduce animal mortality

Mortality of animals on roads is a critical threat to many wildlife populations and is poised to increase strongly because of ongoing and planned road construction. If these new roads cannot be avoided, effective mitigation measures will be necessary to stop biodiversity decline. Fencing along roads effectively reduces roadkill and is often used in combination with wildlife passages. Because fencing the entire road is not always possible due to financial constraints, high-frequency roadkill areas are often identified to inform the placement of fencing. We devised an adaptive fence-implementation plan to prioritize road sections for fencing. In this framework, areas along roads of high, moderate, and low levels of animal mortality (respectively, roadkill hotspots, warmspots, and coldspots) are identified at multiple scales (i.e., in circles of different diameters [200–2000 m] in which mortality frequency is measured). Fence deployment is based on the relationship between the amount of fencing being added to the road, starting with the strongest roadkill hotspots, and potential reduction in road mortality (displayed in mortality-reduction graphs). We applied our approach to empirical and simulated spatial patterns of wildlife–vehicle collisions. The scale used for analysis affected the number and spatial extent of roadkill hot-, warm-, and coldspots. At fine scales (e.g., 200 m), more hotspots were identified than at coarse scales (e.g., 2000 m), but combined the fine-scale hotspots covered less road and less fencing was needed to reduce road mortality. However, many short fences may be less effective in practice due to a fence-end effect (i.e., animals moving around the fence more easily), resulting in a trade-off between few long and many short fences, which we call the FLOMS (few-long-or-many-short) fences trade-off. Thresholds in the mortality-reduction graphs occurred for some roadkill patterns, but not for others. Thresholds may be useful to consider when determining road-mitigation targets. The existence of thresholds at multiple scales and the FLOMS trade-off have important implications for biodiversity conservation.     

FLOODPLAINS AND HOUSING VALUES: IMPLICATIONS FOR FLOOD MITIGATION PROJECTS1

ABSTRACT: The hedonic valuation method was used to quantify the impact of floodplain location on housing values in Fargo‐Moor‐head. Being located in the 100‐year floodplain lowered the home values by $8,990, and such homes were worth $10,241 less than similar homes located outside the floodplain before the major flood event of 1997. Required flood insurance premiums for these homes were determined to account for approximately 81 percent of this price depreciation. In contrast, homes in the 500‐year floodplain were worth $3,100 more than similar homes not in the floodplain. It was concluded that more disclosure is needed regarding the location of the 500‐year floodplain, and that the hedonic valuation method can be used to calculate the economic gains and losses associated with flood mitigation projects or floodplain remapping efforts that result in the reclassification of the legal floodplain status of individual homes.     

Estimated benefit of automated emergency braking systems for vehicle–pedestrian crashes in the United States

Abstract

Objective: The objective of this research study is to estimate the benefit to pedestrians if all U.S. cars, light trucks, and vans were equipped with an automated braking system that had pedestrian detection capabilities.

Methods: A theoretical automatic emergency braking (AEB) model was applied to real-world vehicle–pedestrian collisions from the Pedestrian Crash Data Study (PCDS). A series of potential AEB systems were modeled across the spectrum of expected system designs. Both road surface conditions and pedestrian visibility were accounted for in the model. The impact speeds of a vehicle without AEB were compared to the estimated impact speeds of vehicles with a modeled pedestrian detecting AEB system. These impacts speeds were used in conjunction with an injury and fatality model to determine risk of Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale of 3 or higher (MAIS 3+) injury and fatality.

Results: AEB systems with pedestrian detection capability, across the spectrum of expected design parameters, reduced fatality risk when compared to human drivers. The most beneficial system (time-to-collision [TTC]?=?1.5?s, latency = 0?s) decreased fatality risk in the target population between 84 and 87% and injury risk (MAIS score 3+) between 83 and 87%.

Conclusions: Though not all crashes could be avoided, AEB significantly mitigated risk to pedestrians. The longer the TTC of braking and the shorter the latency value, the higher benefits showed by the AEB system. All AEB models used in this study were estimated to reduce fatalities and injuries and were more effective when combined with driver braking.     

An exploratory study on perceptions of seismic risk and mitigation in two districts of Istanbul

Istanbul is one of the world's cities most vulnerable to seismic events. According to seismologists, the probability of a severe earthquake in the next 30 years is approximately 40 per cent. Following an outline of the seismicity of this vital Turkish city and a summary of current seismic risks and mitigation studies, this paper presents the results of a survey conducted in two districts of Istanbul, Avcilar and Bakirkoy. The survey comprised some 60 questions on the seismic risk perceptions of individuals and requested basic personal data, such as on age, education level, employment type, financial income, and gender. Despite various differences among the survey population, such as academic background and level of financial income, responses were surprisingly similar, especially in terms of having no plan for a safer house. The data may help those planning mitigation programmes and public awareness campaigns on preparedness and particularly mitigation in highly vulnerable regions.     

Calculating Biologically Accurate Mitigation Credits: Insights from the California Tiger Salamander

Abstract:  Current conservation mitigation plans often fail to ensure full in-kind habitat replacement for endangered species, which suggests the need for improved methods for calculating mitigation credits. A simple, yet biologically meaningful method for calculating mitigation credits would be to let the number of mitigation credits assigned to a parcel of land scale with the reproductive value of the individuals occupying that parcel. This can be accomplished by dividing the population into 2 or more subdivisions with different reproductive values, calculating the densities of these subdivisions as a function of one or more habitat parameters, and then forming a weighted sum of these densities such that each density distribution is weighted by the reproductive value of its respective subdivision of the population. This weighted sum is the density distribution of reproductive value, and by integrating it over a particular parcel, one can determine the mitigation value of that parcel. We carried out this procedure for a population of California tiger salamanders ( Ambystoma californiense ), with distance from breeding site as our habitat parameter and the 3 visually identifiable age classes (adults, juveniles, and metamorphs) as our population subdivisions. This led to a density distribution of reproductive value that decreased exponentially with increasing distance from a breeding site. Mitigation strategies derived from this function will be more likely to ensure the persistence of California tiger salamander populations than current approaches, which assign all land within 1.6 km of a breeding site the same mitigation value. Use of the density distribution of reproductive value as a basis for mitigation plans is a procedure that can be applied to all endangered species, and it should improve the quality of mitigation decisions.     

Comparing and evaluating the nationally determined contributions of the top six emitters under the Paris Agreement goals

ABSTRACT

Comparing and evaluating the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) is an important element in global stocktake in the post-Paris climate negotiations, aimed at closing the emissions gap with the Paris Agreement goals. To date, however, there has still been no explicit guideline or method. By applying emissions allowance allocated by 16 schemes as benchmarks, this paper tries to compare and evaluate the NDCs of the top six emitters, which jointly account for about 70% of the world’s CO₂ emissions. Results show that the four developed countries’ NDCs lack ambition with respect to most allocations under 2°C and all under 1.5°C, indicating they need to substantially ratchet up their NDCs and lead elevating mitigation. Evaluating cumulative emissions is more likely to clarify the ambition and fairness of China’s NDC. If considering cumulative emissions, China’s NDC is aligned with the median of cumulative allowances under 2°C and within the 1.5°C range. The Paris Agreement invited the Parties to communicate the mid-century low emissions strategies. This paper also tries to explore the mid-century mitigation in the perspective of allocations, which might provide decision-makers with some useful information when envisaging the post-NDC mitigation.