面向21世纪的上海城市综合减灾管理模式的探索

城市综合防灾减灾管理是城市管理的一个重要组成部分,上海市综合减灾体系目前尚不够完善,城市抗灾能力仍较薄弱,本文通过对国外大城市减灾管理模式的比较和研究,分析了目前沆减灾管理模式的现状和存在的问题,并提出了一个较为完善的上海市综合减灾管理模式框架和由目前灾害管理模式向理想模式过渡的措施和建议。     

小天体撞击灾害

由小天体与地球相撞而造成的撞击灾害是发生在太阳系尺度上的特大自然灾害：所谓小天体,是指那些可能与地球相撞的近地小行星、短周期彗星和长周期彗星,撞击灾害比洪水、地震和其他自然灾害更少发生,可是撞击灾害的后果却严重得多,甚至严重到可以引起地球生物大规模绝来的程度,并非所有撞击地球的小天体都能造成撞击灾害,能量低于10Mt的小天体就不能形成撞击灾害,而能量接近全球撞击灾害阈值（10^5-10^6Mt）的撞击灾害风险最大,全球撞击灾害是目前我们唯一知道能够造成世界上当大部分死亡的自然灾害,并且它的风险水平与我们熟悉的许多自然灾害相当。     

The Concept and Theoretical Implications of Carbon Emissions Rights Based on Individual Equity

Climate change has become a hot topic in international environmental negotiations.For post-Kyoto international climate regime negotiations,many countries have proposed a variety of frameworks to share the emission reduction responsibilities and allocate carbon emission rights,and have tried to quantify the emission reduction obligations of all countries based on the perspectives of international equity and individual equity.In this paper,the authors have distinguished the concepts of carbon emissions rights based on these two perspectives respectively,have analyzed the relationship between carbon emissions per capita and economic development,and have calculated and compared the proportion of cumulative emissions per capita of different countries in history and future,and then authors conclude that emission reduction obligations should be allocated based on each country’s conditions,including historical emissions,development stage,and future demands.Developed countries should take the initiative to significantly reduce their emissions because they have already accomplished their industrialization process.However,developing countries are still in the process of industrialization,which requires more emission rights to meet their development needs.For China,the concept of carbon emissions based on individual equity can be used as a theoretical tool for the allocating the international carbon emissions rights.     

Estimating the value of foresight: aggregate analysis of natural hazard mitigation benefits and costs

Hazard mitigation planners claim that foresighted present actions and investments produce significant future benefits. However, they have difficulty in supporting their claims, since previously their evidence typically was derived from individual case studies. Constituents and decision makers are often sceptical, believing that individual cases are either inapplicable to their situation or non-randomly selected to support a particular view. Planners need objective evidence based on a large body of experience to support the case for mitigation. Such is the unique contribution of a recent U.S. study that found that each dollar spent in three federal natural hazard mitigation grant programs (the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program, Project Impact, and the Flood Mitigation Assistance Program) saves society an average of $4 in future avoided losses. Complementing the aggregate benefit-cost analysis with community-based evaluations, the study yielded insights on how planners can improve long-term community resilience in the face of extreme events. Valuable lessons for mitigation planners and policy makers emerged: the need to consider a wide variety of losses, the importance of mixing qualitative with quantitative analysis, the value of averaging results over a large number of projects, and the need to more explicitly address social issues and data collection in order to reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience to cope with twenty-first century hazards.     

The importance of mangrove forest in tsunami disaster mitigation

Tsunamis and storm surges have killed more than one million people and some three billion people currently live with a high risk of these disasters, which are becoming more frequent and devastating worldwide. Effective mitigation of such disasters is possible via healthy coastal forests, which can reduce the energy of tsunamis. In recent years, these natural barriers have declined due to adverse human and natural activities. In the past 20 years, the world has lost almost 50 per cent of its mangrove forests, making them one of the most endangered landscapes. It is essential to recover them and to use them as a shield against a tsunami and as a resource to secure optimal socio-economic, ecological and environmental benefits. This paper examines the emerging scenario facing mangrove forests, discusses protection from tsunamis, and proposes a way to improve the current situation. We hope that practical tips will help communities and agencies to work collectively to achieve a common goal.     

A methodology for estimating health benefits of electricity generation using renewable technologies

At Copenhagen, the developed countries agreed to provide up to $100 bn per year to finance climate change mitigation and adaptation by developing countries. Projects aimed at cutting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will need to be evaluated against dual criteria: from the viewpoint of the developed countries they must cut emissions of GHGs at reasonable cost, while host countries will assess their contribution to development, or simply their overall economic benefits. Co-benefits of some types of project will also be of interest to host countries: for example some projects will contribute to reducing air pollution, thus improving the health of the local population.This paper uses a simple damage function methodology to quantify some of the health co-benefits of replacing coal-fired generation with wind or small hydro in China. We estimate the monetary value of these co-benefits and find that it is probably small compared to the added costs. We have not made a full cost-benefit analysis of renewable energy in China as some likely co-benefits are omitted from our calculations. Our results are subject to considerable uncertainty however, after careful consideration of their likely accuracy and comparisons with other studies, we believe that they provide a good first cut estimate of co-benefits and are sufficiently robust to stand as a guide for policy makers.In addition to these empirical results, a key contribution made by the paper is to demonstrate a simple and reasonably accurate methodology for health benefits estimation that applies the most recent academic research in the field to the solution of an increasingly important problem.     

城市综合防灾减灾规划方法研究——以廊坊市为例

在分析我国城市防灾减灾工作现状的基础上,指出我国在城市综合防灾减灾规划方面的不足;针对我国中小城市的特点,提出一套城市综合防灾减灾规划的工作程序与技术方法,该方法包括灾害识别,财产易损性分析,灾害风险分析,损失预测与风险区划,确定规划目标与减灾措施,规划编制6个阶段;以廊坊市为例,拟定了一个综合防灾减灾规划方案。在规划过程中采用了风险分级法和减灾措施优先级评分法等,找出威胁廊坊城市安全的主要灾害和防治的主要措施,为廊坊市的灾害管理提供了依据。     

关于地震人员伤亡因素的探讨

地震灾害对人类生命安全的威胁十分巨大,本文对地震造成人员伤亡的因素进行了探讨。首先,分析了地震造成人员伤亡的原因及人员死亡的主要形式;接着,详细研究了影响人员伤亡数量的因素;最后,提出了减少人员伤亡应当采取的几种措施,为减轻地震灾害损失提供了依据。     

Book Reviews

Books reviewed: John Twigg and Mihir R. Bhatt, eds, Understanding Vulnerability Joachim von Braun, Tesfaye Teklu and Patrick Webb, Famine in Africa: Causes, Responses, and Prevention C. Emdad Haque, Hazrads in a Fickle Environment: Bangladesh Walter Gillis Peacock, Betty Hearn Morrow and Hugh Gladwin, eds, Population and Food: Global Trends and Future Prospects Roy Gutman and David Rieff, eds, Crimes of War: What the Public Should Know     

Comparison of Three Algaecides for Controlling the Density of Prymnesium parvum1

Rodgers, John H., Jr., Brenda M. Johnson, and West M. Bishop, 2010. Comparison of Three Algaecides for Controlling the Density of Prymnesium parvum. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(1):153-160. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2009.00399.x Abstract: Prymnesium parvum has become more prevalent in water resources of the southern United States. As the potential impacts of P. parvum are relatively well known, especially its capability to severely affect fish, managers have sought efficacious, environmentally sound, and socially acceptable strategies for mitigating this noxious species. Laboratory testing was used to identify an effective algaecide for control of P. parvum from Texas, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, and South Carolina. Cutrine^®-Plus at 0.2 mg Cu/l significantly decreased the density of P. parvum in samples from all of these locations. Both copper sulfate and Phycomycin^® were less effective for controlling the population growth of P. parvum. The predicted response from the laboratory study was confirmed in the field at the Arizona site. Strategic use of Cutrine^®-Plus in larger water resources could provide toxin-free refugia to allow some fish to survive and repopulate the water resource when the golden alga infestation abates.