The elephant in the room – A comparative study of uncertainties in carbon offsets

The clean development mechanism (CDM) is a flexible mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol, which makes it possible for developed countries to offset their emissions of greenhouse gases through investing in climate change mitigation projects in developing countries. When the mitigation benefit of a CDM project is quantified, measurable uncertainties arise that can be minimised using established statistical methods. In addition, some unmeasurable uncertainties arise, such as the rebound effect of demand-side energy efficiency projects. Many project types related to land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) have been excluded from the CDM in part because of the high degree of statistical uncertainty in measurements of the carbon sink and risk of non-permanence. However, recent discussions within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have opened up for the possibility of including more LULUCF activities in the future. In the light of this discussion, we highlight different aspects of uncertainties in LULUCF projects (e.g. the risk of non-permanence and the size of the carbon sink) in relation to other CDM project categories such as renewables and demand-side energy efficiency. We quantify the uncertainties, compare the magnitudes of the uncertainties in different project categories and conclude that uncertainties could be just as significant in CDM project categories such as renewables as in LULUCF projects. The CDM is a useful way of including and engaging developing countries in climate change mitigation and could be a good source of financial support for LULUCF mitigation activities. Given their enormous mitigation potential, we argue that additional LULUCF activities should be included in the CDM and other future climate policy instruments. Furthermore, we note that Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) are currently being submitted to the UNFCCC by developing countries. Unfortunately, the under-representation of LULUCF in comparison to its potential is evident in the NAMAs submitted so far, just as it has been in the CDM. Capacity building under the CDM may influence NAMAs and there is a risk of transferring the view on uncertainties to NAMAs.     

The impact of climate change mitigation on water demand for energy and food: An integrated analysis based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Climate change mitigation, in the context of growing population and ever increasing economic activity, will require a transformation of energy and agricultural systems, posing significant challenges to global water resources. We use an integrated modelling framework of the water-energy-land-climate systems to assess how changes in electricity and land use, induced by climate change mitigation, impact on water demand under alternative socioeconomic (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) and water policy assumptions (irrigation of bioenergy crops, cooling technologies for electricity generation). The impacts of climate change mitigation on cumulated global water demand across the century are highly uncertain, and depending on socioeconomic and water policy conditions, they range from a reduction of 15,000 km³ to an increase of more than 160,000 km³. The impact of irrigation of bioenergy crops is the most prominent factor, leading to significantly higher water requirements under climate change mitigation if bioenergy crops are irrigated. Differences in socioeconomic drivers and fossil fuel availability result in significant differences in electricity and bioenergy demands, in the associated electricity and primary energy mixes, and consequently in water demand. Economic affluence and abundance of fossil fuels aggravate pressures on water resources due to higher energy demand and greater deployment of water intensive technologies such as bioenergy and nuclear power. The evolution of future cooling systems is also identified as an important determinant of electricity water demand. Climate policy can result in a reduction of water demand if combined with policies on irrigation of bioenergy, and the deployment of non-water-intensive electricity sources and cooling types.     

Comparing Effectiveness of Experimental and Implemented Bycatch Reduction Measures: the Ideal and the Real

Abstract:  Fishers, scientists, and resource managers have made substantial progress in reducing bycatch of sea turtles, seabirds, and marine mammals through physical modifications to fishing gear. Many bycatch-avoidance measures have been developed and tested successfully in controlled experiments, which have led to regulated implementation of modified or new fishing gear. Nevertheless, successful bycatch experiments may not translate to effective mitigation in commercial fisheries because experimental conditions are relaxed in commercial fishing operations. Such a difference between experimental results and real-world results with fishing fleets may have serious consequences for management and conservation of protected species taken as bycatch. We evaluated preimplementation experimental measures and postimplementation efficacy from primary and gray literature for three case studies: acoustic pingers that warn marine mammals of the presence of gill nets, turtle excluder devices that reduce bycatch of turtles in trawls, and various measures to reduce seabird bycatch in longlines. Three common themes to successful implementation of bycatch reduction measures are long-standing collaborations among the fishing industry, scientists, and resource managers; pre- and postimplementation monitoring; and compliance via enforcement and incentives.     

Restoration of the Marine Ecological Environment Along the Charting Coast: Primary Productivity and Biomass Study

Since 1986, when green oysters occurred due to the copper and organic pollution in the Charting coastal area, the government banned all maricultural activity. It has been claimed that growing algae in a polluted environment may clean the water of pollutants and restore the marine ecosystem. to test this hypothesis, in the Charting coastal area a three-year programme (from August 1992 to July 1995) was carried out. the survey programme included environmental components such as salinity, temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen, biological oxygen demand (BOD), particulate organic carbon (POC), heavy metals and ecological indicators such as nutrients, chlorophyll-a, primary productivity. in the first year study, the environmental background data collected was used to select the suitable season and locations for growing large algae transferred from the laboratory to the field study area. Since September 1993, various species of large algae have been cultured. Although some of the growing algae were damaged by a typhoon in August 1994, the impact of the growing algae on the environmental conditions in the area has been monitored throughout. Elsewhere, we have reported that in the algae growing area higher dissolved oxygen with lower values of BOD and POC were found, and the concentrations of heavy metals in both water and sediments decreased. the purpose of this paper is to evaluate the possible impact of growing large algae on the ecological conditions in Charting coastal waters through the period from August 1983 to May 1995. As a result of the positive results obtained, large amounts of algae have again been cultured in the same area during the period from April 29 to May 25, 1995. We expect that inorganic and organic pollutants will be reduced by the algal growth, oyster mariculture will be restored and finally, the fishery resources potential will be increased.     

Managing climate change risks in New York City’s water system: assessment and adaptation planning

Managing risk by adapting long-lived infrastructure to the effects of climate change must become a regular part of planning for water supply, sewer, wastewater treatment, and other urban infrastructure during this century. The New York City Department of Environmental Protection (NYCDEP), the agency responsible for managing New York City’s (NYC) water supply, sewer, and wastewater treatment systems, has developed a climate risk management framework through its Climate Change Task Force, a government-university collaborative effort. Its purpose is to ensure that NYCDEP’s strategic and capital planning take into account the potential risks of climate change—sea-level rise, higher temperature, increases in extreme events, changes in drought and flood frequency and intensity, and changing precipitation patterns—on NYC’s water systems. This approach will enable NYCDEP and other agencies to incorporate adaptations to the risks of climate change into their management, investment, and policy decisions over the long term as a regular part of their planning activities. The framework includes a 9-step Adaptation Assessment procedure. Potential climate change adaptations are divided into management, infrastructure, and policy categories, and are assessed by their relevance in terms of climate change time-frame (immediate, medium, and long term), the capital cycle, costs, and other risks. The approach focuses on the water supply, sewer, and wastewater treatment systems of NYC, but has wide application for other urban areas, especially those in coastal locations.     

Climate, entropy and environment

The IPCC Working Groups I–III 2007 publications does not consider the question of the influence of the entropy increase in the atmosphere on current climate development. An investigation into this question, both in general terms as well as by two quantitative approaches, reveals we must consider the entropy produced by man in connection with climate development, especially with regard to the temperature increase of the atmosphere. The IPCC report also fails to mention the production of CO₂ by humans and livestock, but calculations show we must also consider such greenhouse gas CO₂ production. For solving the mitigating processes, we therefore have to take into account both the human induced entropy production and the direct human and livestock CO₂ output. In consideration of these findings, it seems necessary to introduce an “entropy identity” to people who wish to be able to continue to live on the planet. The introduction of an entropy tax might also help in solving the most urgent fundamental problem humanity has ever had to face. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Biodiversity Offsets and the Challenge of Achieving No Net Loss

Businesses, governments, and financial institutions are increasingly adopting a policy of no net loss of biodiversity for development activities. The goal of no net loss is intended to help relieve tension between conservation and development by enabling economic gains to be achieved without concomitant biodiversity losses. biodiversity offsets represent a necessary component of a much broader mitigation strategy for achieving no net loss following prior application of avoidance, minimization, and remediation measures. However, doubts have been raised about the appropriate use of biodiversity offsets. We examined what no net loss means as a desirable conservation outcome and reviewed the conditions that determine whether, and under what circumstances, biodiversity offsets can help achieve such a goal. We propose a conceptual framework to substitute the often ad hoc approaches evident in many biodiversity offset initiatives. The relevance of biodiversity offsets to no net loss rests on 2 fundamental premises. First, offsets are rarely adequate for achieving no net loss of biodiversity alone. Second, some development effects may be too difficult or risky, or even impossible, to offset. To help to deliver no net loss through biodiversity offsets, biodiversity gains must be comparable to losses, be in addition to conservation gains that may have occurred in absence of the offset, and be lasting and protected from risk of failure. Adherence to these conditions requires consideration of the wider landscape context of development and offset activities, timing of offset delivery, measurement of biodiversity, accounting procedures and rule sets used to calculate biodiversity losses and gains and guide offset design, and approaches to managing risk. Adoption of this framework will strengthen the potential for offsets to provide an ecologically defensible mechanism that can help reconcile conservation and development. Balances de Biodiversidad y el Reto de No Obtener Pérdida Neta     

Effects of Road Mortality and Mitigation Measures on Amphibian Populations

Road mortality is a widely recognized but rarely quantified threat to the viability of amphibian populations. The global extent of the problem is substantial and factors affecting the number of animals killed on highways include life‐history traits and landscape features. Secondary effects include genetic isolation due to roads acting as barriers to migration. Long‐term effects of roads on population dynamics are often severe and mitigation methods include volunteer rescues and under‐road tunnels. Despite the development of methods that reduce road kill in specific locations, especially under‐road tunnels and culverts, there is scant evidence that such measures will protect populations over the long term. There also seems little likelihood that funding will be forthcoming to ameliorate the problem at the scale necessary to prevent further population declines. Efectos de la Mortalidad en Carreteras y Medidas de Mitigación en Poblaciones de Anfibios Beebee     

Mitigating flood risk and enhancing community resilience to natural disasters: plan quality matters

In response to increasingly frequent and severe flooding events, tracking the explanatory elements of integrative planning effort can provide useful assessment of initiatives that foster improved community disaster resiliency. In this research, we address the effect of local hazard mitigation plan quality on mitigating disaster risk with an emphasis on the relationship between plan quality and community resilience. Using content analysis and principles of plan quality metrics, we evaluate local hazard mitigation plans to determine how well they support disaster risk reduction. Analytically, these metrics and relevant controls were incorporated into both a log-linear two-stage least squares model and a quantile regression model to explain flood loss at the county level for the US Mississippi River Basin. Findings suggest that better plan quality and high levels of community resilience result in reducing disaster losses.     

Risk and the neoliberal state: why post-Mitch lessons didn't reduce El Salvador's earthquake losses

Although El Salvador suffered light losses from Hurricane Mitch in 1998, it benefited from the increased international aid and encouragement for advance planning, especially mitigation and prevention interventions. Thus, one would have supposed, El Salvador would have been in a very advantageous position, able more easily than its economically crippled neighbours, Honduras and Nicaragua, to implement the 'lessons of Mitch'. A review of the recovery plan tabled by the El Salvador government following the earthquakes of early 2001 shows that despite the rhetoric in favour of 'learning the lessons of Mitch', very little mitigation and prevention had actually been put in place between the hurricane (1998) and the earthquakes (2001). The recovery plan is analysed in terms of the degree to which it deals with root causes of disaster vulnerability, namely, the economic and political marginality of much of the population and environmental degradation. An explanation for the failure to implement mitigation and preventive actions is traced to the adherence by the government of El Salvador to an extreme form of neoliberal, free market ideology, and the deep fissures and mistrust in a country that follow a long and bloody civil war.