Combining policy instruments for sustainable energy systems: An assessment with the GMM model

An assessment of the impact of an illustrative portfolio of policy instruments that address different sustainability concerns in the global energy system in areas of climate change, air pollution and introduction of renewable-energy resources is conducted. The effects of a policy set containing three instruments, implemented either individually or in combination, were examined. The policy instruments under examination in this work include: Cap-and-Trade policies imposing a CO₂ emission reduction target on the global energy system, a renewable portfolio standard that forces a minimum share of renewable electricity generation, and the internalisation of external costs of power generation associated with local pollution. Implementation of these policy instruments significantly changes the structure and environmental performance of the energy sector, and particularly the structure of the electric-generation sector. The positive effects are amplified when the policy instruments are simultaneously applied, illustrating the potential for synergies between these energy-policy domains. The analysis has been conducted with the multi-regional, energy-system Global MARKAL Model (GMM), a “bottom-up” partial-equilibrium model that provides a detailed representation of energy technologies and endogenizes technology learning. ^★A preliminary version of this paper has been presented at the 6th IAEE European Energy Conference on “Modelling in Energy Economics and Policy”, 1–3 September 2004, ETH Zürich, Switzerland.     

城市防震减灾规划影响因素分析--以福清市为例

简要介绍了我国城市防震减灾规划的发展现状，并以福清市为例，详细介绍了该市土地利用、道路路网及避震疏散场地等防震减灾规划的主要内容和影响因素。最后，总结了上述3种防震减灾规划影响因素的要点，为城市防震减灾规划提供参考。     

RS和GIS在滑坡泥石流防灾减灾中的应用

本文论述了遥感和地理信息系统在滑坡敏感性分析、可能性分析、风险分析以及在泥石流信息系统、泥石流危险度分析和泥石流预警等方面的应用,并展望了3S技术支持下的滑坡泥石流的预测、干涉测量合成孔径雷达在滑坡监测中的应用和防灾减灾决策支持系统等三个方面的前景.     

SERENDIPITY: CAPTURING A DESIGN LEVEL PRECIPITATION EVENT1

ABSTRACT: On February 23–24, 1998, a frontal system moved across the U.S. Department of Energy's 3,500 km² Nevada Test Site (NTS) and resulted in significant depths of precipitation at all recording gages on the NTS. A preliminary analysis suggested that this precipitation event was of the magnitude and duration for which many flood mitigation structures have been designed. Given the data and field observations available and the potential implications of the event on the methodologies used to size flood mitigation structures throughout the West, a detailed analysis of this event was undertaken. The goals of this study were to compare this event with the regulatory design precipitation event, compare the estimated peak flow rates from the rainfall/runoff model used to size the flood mitigation structures at a radioactive waste management site with the estimated peak flows from the precipitation event, and examine if modification of the standard source of the design depths of precipitation is warranted.     

施甸5.9级地震房屋震害分析

介绍了施甸５．９ 级地震房匡震害，分析了各类房屋在不同烈度区的综合震害指数，对典型房屋进行了震害预测计算并与实际震害作了对比，分析了震害原因，总结了这次地震防御和减轻震害的经验与教训，对地震灾区恢复重建提出了建议     

山区城镇泥石流减灾决策支持系统

山区城镇泥石流减灾决策支持系统是山区城镇泥石流减灾的重要手段之一。该系统由基础数据库、泥石流模型分析和泥石流减灾决策应用三大模块构成 ,其主要功能有降水、泥石流地声和运动监测及信息实时发送和接收、泥石流预报、泥石流危险范围预测与灾情预估、泥石流警报和临灾预案制定。其工作流程为 :降水监测仪将降水信息无线发送到控制中心主机 ,主机对降水信息处理后发送给泥石流预报模型进行泥石流预报 ,并利用泥石流危险性分区模型进行危险范围预测 ,同时进行灾情预估 ;泥石流地声监测仪将地声信号发送给主机 ,主机检测到泥石流地声后发出泥石流警报 ;泥石流运动监测仪将运动信息发送给主机 ,主机根据泥石流运动要素进行危险范围划定和灾情预估 ,最后制定临灾预案。     

Carbon forestry economic mitigation potential in India,by land classification

Carbon forestry mitigation potential estimates at the global-level are limited by the absence or simplicity of national-level estimates, and similarly national-level estimates are limited by absence of regional-level estimates. The present study aims to estimate the mitigation potential for a large diverse country such as India, based on the GTAP global land classification system of agro-ecological zones (AEZs), as well the Indian AEZ system. The study also estimates the implications of carbon price incentive (US$50 and $100) on mitigation potential in the short-, medium- and long-term, since afforestation and reforestation (A & R) is constrained by lack of investment and financial incentives. The mitigation potential for short and long rotation plantations and natural regeneration was estimated using the GCOMAP global forest model for two land area scenarios. One scenario included only wastelands (29 Mha), and the second enhanced area scenario, included wastelands plus long fallow and marginal croplands (54 Mha). Under the $100 carbon price case, significant additional area (3.6 Mha under the wasteland scenario and 6.4 Mha under the enhanced area scenario) and carbon mitigation is gained in the short-term (2025) compared to the baseline when using the GTAP land classification system. The area brought under A & R increases by 85–100% for the $100 carbon price compared to $50 carbon price in the short-term, indicating the effectiveness of higher carbon price incentives, especially in the short-term. A comparison of estimates of mitigation potential using GTAP and Indian AEZ land classification systems showed that in the short-term, 35% additional C-stock gain is achieved in the $100 carbon price case in the enhanced area scenario of the Indian AEZ system. This difference highlights the role of the land classification system adopted in estimation of aggregate mitigation potential estimates, particularly in the short-term. Uncertainty involved in the estimates of national-level mitigation potential needs to be reduced, by generating reliable estimates of carbon stock gain and losses, and cost and benefit data, for land use sector mitigation options at a scale disaggregated enough to be relevant for national mitigation planning.     

从理论到实践的美国排污交易

阐述了排污交易产生的背景，排污权与排放许可证的概念，ＴＤＰ的理论研究和实践应用，排污交易政策在美国的发展等。美国的排污交易政策由补偿政策、气泡政策、净得政策和排污银行４项组成，以美国酸雨计划为例说明了排污交易的巨大环境经济效益，并给出了建议。     

Achieving the Kyoto Protocol in the U.S.: How Great are the Needed Changes?

The Kyoto Protocol requires the U.S.to reduce the rate of emissions of six greenhousegases (GHG) to 93% of their 1990 rate and to achievethis target by the 2008 to 2012 commitment period. This study assesses the magnitude of change needed inthe U.S. economy and, specifically, in the U.S. energysector, to achieve and maintain the target establishedby the Kyoto Protocol. A simple carbon (C)emissions-energy model is explained in this analysisusing four key variables. Current and future trendsin C emissions are explained by: the carbon/energy(C/E) ratio, Gross Domestic Product growth, energyprices and an energy trend variable. Potential GHGmitigation policy actions affect C emissionsindirectly by affecting at least one of these keyvariables. The analysis concludes that reducingfossil energy use in the U.S. to meet the Kyoto GHGemissions reduction target would be very costly. Technological progress that reduces C emissions wouldnot be fully sufficient without prematurely abandoningproductive capital equipment. Energy price increasesof about 14% per year, or declines in economic growthof almost 5% per year, could reduce energy demand andassociated C emissions enough to achieve the terms ofthe Kyoto Protocol.     

Leakage and Comparative Advantage Implications of Agricultural Participation in Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation

The world is moving toward efforts to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions. Reduction efforts may involve the agricultural sector through options such as planting of trees, altering crop and livestock management, and increasing production of biofuels. However, such options can be competitive with domestic food production. In a free trade arena, reduced domestic food production could stimulate increased production and exports in other countries, which are not pursuing net emission reductions. As a consequence, emission reduction efforts in implementing countries may be offset by production increases stimulated in other countries. We examine the competitive effects of agriculturally related emission reduction actions on agricultural production and international trade. In doing this, we employ the assumption that U.S. emission reduction caused cost increases will also occur in other reducing countries. We consider emission reduction: 1) unilaterally by the U.S., 2) by all Kyoto Protocol Annex B countries, and 3) globally. The results, which are only suggestive of the types of effects that would be observed due to the simplifying cost assumptions, indicate compliance causes supply cutbacks in regulated countries and increases in non-regulated countries. The study results show that producers in regulating countries are likely to benefit and consumers lose due to commodity price increases. Seniority of Authorship is shared among the first three authors.