论灾害防治指导思想的转变

本文依据生态经济学理论，从自然－灾害－人类的关系，灾害及灾害防治与经济建设的关系，灾害的发生发展及灾害防治与科学技术的关系等几个方面重新认识人类进行灾害防治指导思想，并确立新的指导思想。     

动物废弃物源甲烷排放量的初步估算与减缓技术选择

根据ＩＰＣＣ的国家温室气体排放清单编制指南，初步计算了中国动物废弃物源的甲烷排放量。２０年间，中国动物废弃物源的甲烷排放量增加了７５％，１９９０年的甲烷排放量为１．１９８Ｔｇ，占全球的１０％左右。并提出发展沼气池、贮留池不仅能减少甲烷排放，而且能产生其它的环境效益和经济效益。     

我国地面沉降灾害现状与防灾减灾对策

介绍了中国大陆地区地面沉降现状,分析了地面沉降的危害,提出要通过加强组织管理和协调,统筹地表水和地下水,建立监测预警体系,合理编制城市规划来预防和减轻地面沉降灾害。     

Tapping the leakages: Methane losses, mitigation options and policy issues for Russian long distance gas transmission pipelines

The Russian natural gas industry is the world's largest producer and transporter of natural gas. This paper aims to characterize the methane emissions from Russian natural gas transmission operations, to explain projects to reduce these emissions, and to characterize the role of emissions reduction within the context of current GHG policy. It draws on the most recent independent measurements at all parts of the Russian long distance transport system made by the Wuppertal Institute in 2003 and combines these results with the findings from the US Natural Gas STAR Program on GHG mitigation options and economics.With this background the paper concludes that the methane emissions from the Russian natural gas long distance network are approximately 0.6% of the natural gas delivered. Mitigating these emissions can create new revenue streams for the operator in the form of reduced costs, increased gas throughput and sales, and earned carbon credits. Specific emissions sources that have cost-effective mitigation solutions are also opportunities for outside investment for the Joint Implementation Kyoto Protocol flexibility mechanism or other carbon markets.     

Predictors for people's response to a tornado warning: Arkansas, 1 March 1997

On 1 March 1997, powerful tornadoes touched down in Arkansas (USA) on a Saturday afternoon. Twenty-six fatalities and 400 non-fatal injuries were reported. We performed a population-based cross-sectional study to determine factors associated with appropriate responses to tornado warnings. Of 146 survey participants, 140 (96 per cent) knew the difference between 'tornado watch' and 'tornado warning' and were aware of when the warning was announced. Of those 140 participants, 64 (45.7 per cent) responded to the warning by seeking shelter, and 58 (90.6 per cent) of those 64 acted within five minutes of hearing the warning. Four factors were positively associated with those seeking shelter: having graduated from high school (OR = 4.2, 95 per cent CI = 1.1-15.5); having a basement in one's house (OR = 3.8, 95 per cent exact CI = 1.1-17.1); hearing a siren (OR = 4.4, 95 per cent CI = 1.3-18.9); and having prepared a household plan of response when tornadoes occur (OR = 2.6, 95 per cent CI = 1.1-6.3). On the basis of these findings, we recommend: first, that people who live in tornadoprone areas have a personal plan of action to help them respond immediately to warnings; second, public-health education officials in areas with frequent tornadic activity should do more to educate the public about what they can do to protect themselves from a tornado; and third, that emergency-management officials planning protection measures for vulnerable communities should consider that most people have limited time (our study documented five minutes) in which to respond to a tornado warning. Thus, shelters in tornado-prone areas should be quickly accessible by residents.     

鼠李糖脂对赤潮藻类的防治作用

研究了由铜绿假单胞菌产生的鼠李糖脂对5种赤潮藻类(塔玛亚历山大藻,赤潮异弯藻,双突角毛藻,柔弱角毛藻和新月菱形藻)生长的影响.结果表明,当鼠李糖脂添加浓度从0.5mg/L增加到12.0mg/L时,对5种藻类的生长表现出不同程度的影响,脂肪酸组成的差异是造成鼠李糖脂对不同藻类生长抑制作用不同的原因.不同藻类的各种多不饱和脂肪酸的含量越低,相对应的96h-EC50值越低,鼠李糖脂对其生长抑制作用越强.有效防治5种藻类的鼠李糖脂所需的浓度为8.5~15mg/L,当浓度为15mg/L时,对不同藻细胞均可造成不可逆的破坏作用.     

西昌市强震断裂避让调查研究

本文详细整理国内外关于强震发震断裂地表破裂避让的有关研究成果,结合对汶川大地震现场的考察,提出在编制城市防震减灾规划中考虑断层避让的工作原则和框架.包括应避让的活动断裂定义,避让的条件,避让范围,并应用于编制西昌市防震减灾规划.     

Modeling the vapor source term associated with the spill of LNG into a sump or impoundment area

The recent publication of evaluation protocols for vapor source term models and vapor dispersion models have influenced the modeling approaches that can be used for approval of new and expansion projects at LNG receiving terminals. In the past few years the scientific basis of integral vapor source term models has been questioned with growing concerns regarding their validity. In this paper, the shallow water equations (SWEs) were solved to study the characteristics of the evaporating LNG pool associated with a constant flow rate spill of LNG into a concrete sump. In the early stages of pool spreading, the leading edge thickness profile of the SWE model scales with the square root of the distance from the leading edge as the pool spreads. After the edge of the pool reaches the wall, the reflected wave forms a hydraulic jump that travels back towards the center of the pool at a speed that is considerably slower than the initial spreading of the pool. Once the hydraulic jump reaches the center, the pool assumes a nearly flat free surface for the rest of the spill. The pool spreading and the rate of evaporation from the SWEs were then compared to the solution provided by the integral model, PHAST. The two approaches were found to agree well with one another. The SWE model was also used to demonstrate the influence of an elevated spill source. With an elevated source, the LNG pool spreads faster, significantly increasing the initial rate of vaporization and peak vaporization rate. This increase in the initial rate of vaporization could lead to an increase in the vapor cloud hazard distance. The SWE model was also used to demonstrate the influence of an inclined sump floor in the shape of an inverted cone where the spilling LNG accumulates in the low vertex of the cone. Inclined sump floors can be used to significantly reduce the cumulative evaporation, making them attractive as a possible mitigation approach in cases where a containment sump is located close to a property boundary.     

Repetitive flood victims and acceptance of FEMA mitigation offers: an analysis with community-system policy implications

Of all natural disasters, flooding causes the greatest amount of economic and social damage. The United States' Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) uses a number of hazard mitigation grant programmes for flood victims, including mitigation offers to relocate permanently repetitive flood loss victims. This study examines factors that help to explain the degree of difficulty repetitive flood loss victims experience when they make decisions about relocating permanently after multiple flood losses. Data are drawn from interviews with FEMA officials and a survey of flood victims from eight repetitive flooding sites. The qualitative and quantitative results show the importance of rational choices by flood victims in their mitigation decisions, as they relate to financial variables, perceptions of future risk, attachments to home and community, and the relationships between repetitive flood loss victims and the local flood management officials who help them. The results offer evidence to suggest the value of a more community-system approach to FEMA relocation practices.