模糊线性规划在灾害对策中的应用

本文把模糊线性规划方法引入灾害对策的研究当中。着重讨论了疏散人口和疏散地点间的关系,简单介绍了模糊疏散距离及其初步确定方法。     

柱型水力旋流器对硅切割废砂浆分离性能的研究

为了研究废砂浆中碳化硅粉和硅粉的分离情况,选用混合模型对柱型水力旋流器多相流流场进行数值模拟。模拟结果表明:柱型水力旋流器的分离效率与入口速度、进口浓度等因素有关,并分析出一定条件下当主、次相的入口速度均为1.1m/s时颗粒分离效果较好,分离效率较高,实验检测分离性能较好,为进一步实验研究提供一定的指导。     

低成本高效慢速烤燃试验方法研究

目的研究低成本高效慢速烤燃试验方法。方法利用自主研发的一套慢速烤燃试验装置,以1℃/min和3.3℃/h升温程序作为对比试验,设置几种三阶段升温程序,对JBO-9013和JH-14炸药进行慢速烤燃试验,以此获得不同升温程序下试样的响应温度和响应等级。结果 1℃/min、3.3℃/h、三阶段(100/150/193℃)升温程序下,JBO-9013响应温度分别为243.1、199.5、199.8、201.4、193.0℃,响应等级均为燃烧反应;JH-14响应温度分别为211.0、186.0、191.7℃,响应等级均为爆轰反应。结论升温程序对JBO-9013和JH-14响应温度和响应剧烈程度均有影响。与GJB8018—2013中1℃/min升温程序相比,三阶段升温程序与MIL-STD-2105D和STANAG 4439中3.3℃/h烤燃试验结果吻合度较高。因此,三阶段升温程序具有缩短试验周期、提高试验效率和降低试验成本的作用。     

京津冀地区高分辨率PM2.5浓度时空变化模拟与分析

为了全覆盖、高分辨率和高精度识别京津冀地区大气PM_2.5质量浓度时空变化,选取多角度大气校正算法遥感反演的1km AOD为主要预测因子,多种气象要素和土地利用要素为辅助预测因子,构建了混合效应模型+地理加权回归模型的两阶段统计模型,并针对京津冀地区PM_2.5污染较严重的特点,模型中引入了AOD²等独特预测因子.通过上述两阶段模型定量预测了研究区2017年1 km²空间分辨率的每日PM_2.5质量浓度.结果表明,模型交叉验证的决定系数R²为0.94,斜率为0.95,均方根预测误差为13.14 μg·m^-3,在前人基础上预测精度进一步提升,可用于PM_2.5浓度时空变化预测与分析.2017年,京津冀地区PM_2.5浓度年均值为44.96 μg·m^-3,年均值范围在0~89.89 μg·m^-3之间.PM_2.5浓度时空变化差异性明显,整体上呈现"平原西南部浓度高、平原东北部浓度中等和山区高原浓度低"的空间分布格局以及"冬季浓度高、夏季浓度低和春秋过渡"的季节变化特点.模型预测结果的高时空分辨率可以支持流行病学研究在较小区域的暴露评估和识别小尺度污染源的时空变化,分析发现在大气污染防治行动计划实施以来,污染较严重的冀中南山麓平原区可能出现了重要污染源的空间变化.模型预测与分析结果可以为京津冀大气污染防治提供科学支撑.     

关于计划生育法制建设的思考

社会主义市场经济体制的建立和完善，给计划生育工作带来了一系列的新情况、新问题。因此，把计划生育工作纳入法制的轨道显得尤为重要。本文分析了我国计划生育工作靠行政约束的局限性；总结了市场经济体制下，计划生育工作面临的新特点；阐述了加强计划生育法制建设的紧迫性和可行性；并提出了计划生育立法的基本思路     

Identifying best practices states in motorcycle rider education and licensing

PROBLEM: After decreasing to a historic low in 1997, motorcycle crash-related fatalities are increasing. Although causes remain unclear, motorcycle rider education and licensing play key roles in reducing motorcycle crashes and injuries. Yet, little is known about what constitutes effective rider training and licensing. This study develops a model of best practices in motorcycle rider education and licensing and combines primary and secondary data to identify states that most closely adhere to this model. Evidence on the validity of the model is also examined. METHOD: States were rated along three areas of best practices: (a) program administration; (b) rider education; and (c) licensing based on 2001 data collected for a National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA)-sponsored study. RESULTS: Results indicate wide variation in states' adherence to best practices; several states meet most, others very few. When the areas of best practices are considered separately, a state tends to behave similarly on all three. Initial evidence supports the validity of the model, with high best practices states having the lowest rates of motorcycle fatalities. IMPACT ON TRAFFIC SAFETY: As motorcycle-related crashes increase and state and federal support for rider education programs diminishes, it is critical that states identify deficiencies in their program and learn from successful states about efficient, cost-effective strategies for increasing best practices in motorcycle rider education and licensing.     

多泥沙河流水质模型研究

针对黄河泥沙含量大、泥沙对河流CODMn浓度影响大的突出特点,运用模拟实验方法,探讨了泥沙对CODMn浓度的影响,揭示了浑水、清水中CODMn浓度与含沙量间的关系.研究表明,黄河浑水中CODMn浓度随含沙量增大呈显著上升趋势,而去除泥沙后清水CODMn浓度测定值随其原含沙量增大呈微上升趋势.依据质量平衡原理,建立了充分考虑泥沙影响的CODMn衰减经验模型.清水中CODMn浓度的变化采用完全混合反应器概念来模拟,浑水中CODMn浓度通过清水中CODMn浓度与泥沙中CODMn浓度之和来量化.模型基本方程的求解采用稳态解析解.模型中的参数通过利用实际监测数据及室内实验结果与优化结合的方法确定.同时,利用实际监测数据对参数和模型进行检验.结果表明,模型结构合理,参数取值可靠,模型精度较好.模型既能揭示汇流区间人为污染对河段水质的影响,又可以反映作为面污染源的黄河泥沙对污染的影响,可作为水质预测的实用工具及规划管理的依据.     

TA-FTIR/MS用于硝酸铵及其混合物的热化学行为研究

为评价物料混合对危险化学品热化学行为的影响,采用热分析-红外/质谱联用技术(TA-FTIR/MS)研究硝酸铵、柠檬酸和蔗糖的混合物的热化学行为。通过对硝酸铵及其混合物的分解温度和分解过程中逸出气体的分析,发现硝酸铵、柠檬酸和蔗糖的混合物热分解温度分别降低至135℃和153℃,而硝酸铵与甲基纤维素的混合物分解温度与硝酸铵基本相同为201℃,且各混合体系的气相分解产物均有氮氧化物(NOX),H2O和CO2。结果表明,混合物受热后其中的硝酸铵首先分解为硝酸和氨气;酸性物质和还原性物质由于对硝酸的分解反应有催化作用,使得混合物的热稳定性下降。     

Shifting elasmobranch community assemblage at Cocos Island—an isolated marine protected area

Fishing pressure has increased the extinction risk of many elasmobranch (shark and ray) species. Although many countries have established no‐take marine reserves, a paucity of monitoring data means it is still unclear if reserves are effectively protecting these species. We examined data collected by a small group of divers over the past 21 years at one of the world's oldest marine protected areas (MPAs), Cocos Island National Park, Costa Rica. We used mixed effects models to determine trends in relative abundance, or probability of occurrence, of 12 monitored elasmobranch species while accounting for variation among observers and from abiotic factors. Eight of 12 species declined significantly over the past 2 decades. We documented decreases in relative abundance for 6 species, including the iconic scalloped hammerhead shark (Sphyrna lewini) (?45%), whitetip reef shark (Triaenodon obesus) (?77%), mobula ray (Mobula spp.) (?78%), and manta ray (Manta birostris) (?89%), and decreases in the probability of occurrence for 2 other species. Several of these species have small home ranges and should be better protected by an MPA, which underscores the notion that declines of marine megafauna will continue unabated in MPAs unless there is adequate enforcement effort to control fishing. In addition, probability of occurrence at Cocos Island of tiger (Galeocerdo cuvier), Galapagos (Carcharhinus galapagensis), blacktip (Carcharhinus limbatus), and whale (Rhincodon typus) sharks increased significantly. The effectiveness of MPAs cannot be evaluated by examining single species because population responses can vary depending on life history traits and vulnerability to fishing pressure.