SPATIALLY OPTIMIZING FOREST MANAGEMENT SCHEDULES TO MEET STORMFLOW CONSTRAINTS1

ABSTRACT: A spatial optimization model is developed and used to limit cumulative effects resulting from storm events by strategically arranging and scheduling forest treatments to meet peak storm-flow constraints. A mixed integer forest management scheduling formulation is used to select the location and timing of forest treatments. The approach includes simulated spatial routing of storm-flows imbedded as hydrologic process constraints (in a nested schedule) within longer-term forest management planning periods in the mathematical programming model. Although difficult to solve, the model shows promise for further research.     

近距平行跑道配对进近微观跟驰模型研究

配对进近程序可有效提高近距平行跑道容量,是目前国外航空界理论研究热点问题。为提高配对进近程序的安全性,针对近距平行跑道配对进近方式下的跟驰现象,通过量化人为因素及尾流传播特性对配对进近两机纵向距离的影响建立配对进近微观跟驰模型,对影响两机运动状态的因素进行详细分析,提出改进的配对进近安全区计算方法。最后通过算例仿真对安全区变化特点进行分析,采用实际运行数据计算出国内三大机场的近距平行跑道施行配对进近时的有效起始安全区及有地面效应影响时的安全区。     

驾驶人视觉注意力需求与驾驶行为特性的关系

采用驾驶模拟系统平台,以不同车道类型及不同交通流状态(自由流/稳定流/不稳定流/强制流)为虚拟试验场,应用心理试验设计方法,测试得到21名被试在不同交通流状态下的视觉注意力需求及驾驶行为。对5种车道类型及4种交通流状态下被试驾驶时的视觉注意力需求特性和驾驶行为特性数据进行分析,得到不同车道不同交通流状态下的视觉注意力需求变化情况。利用多元回归方法分析了不同交通流状态下驾驶人视觉注意力需求与驾驶行为之间的关系,并构建了基于驾驶行为特性的驾驶人视觉注意力需求预测模型。结果表明,驾驶人视觉注意力需求与制动次数、油门踏板位移和车辆轨迹偏差之间存在相关关系。     

煤岩混合型粉尘云最低着火温度试验研究

为研究半煤岩巷道中岩粉质量分数和煤的挥发分与煤岩混合型粉尘云最低着火温度的关系,选取挥发分差异较大的5种煤样以相同比例配制煤岩混合型粉尘,利用粉尘云最小点火温度测定仪进行煤岩混合型粉尘试验。结果表明,当煤岩混合型粉尘中岩粉质量分数低于40%时,岩粉的混合会导致混合型粉尘云最低着火温度发生小幅度波动;当岩粉质量分数高于40%时,煤岩混合型粉尘最低着火温度会随岩粉质量分数的增加而大幅度升高;挥发分质量分数越小的煤粉,其混合型粉尘云最低着火温度越容易受岩粉质量分数的影响。     

Risk factors affecting injury severity determined by the MAIS score

Objective: Traffic crashes result in a loss of life but also impact the quality of life and productivity of crash survivors. Given the importance of traffic crash outcomes, the issue has received attention from researchers and practitioners as well as government institutions, such as the European Commission (EC). Thus, to obtain detailed information on the injury type and severity of crash victims, hospital data have been proposed for use alongside police crash records. A new injury severity classification based on hospital data, called the maximum abbreviated injury scale (MAIS), was developed and recently adopted by the EC. This study provides an in-depth analysis of the factors that affect injury severity as classified by the MAIS score.

Method: In this study, the MAIS score was derived from the International Classification of Diseases. The European Union adopted an MAIS score equal to or greater than 3 as the definition for a serious traffic crash injury. Gains are expected from using both police and hospital data because the injury severities of the victims are detailed by medical staff and the characteristics of the crash and the site of its occurrence are also provided. The data were obtained by linking police and hospital data sets from the Porto metropolitan area of Portugal over a 6-year period (2006–2011). A mixed logit model was used to understand the factors that contribute to the injury severity of traffic victims and to explore the impact of these factors on injury severity. A random parameter approach offers methodological flexibility to capture individual-specific heterogeneity. Additionally, to understand the importance of using a reliable injury severity scale, we compared MAIS with length of hospital stay (LHS), a classification used by several countries, including Portugal, to officially report injury severity. To do so, the same statistical technique was applied using the same variables to analyze their impact on the injury severity classified according to LHS.

Results: This study showed the impact of variables, such as the presence of blood alcohol, the use of protection devices, the type of crash, and the site characteristics, on the injury severity classified according to the MAIS score. Additionally, the sex and age of the victims were analyzed as risk factors, showing that elderly and male road users are highly associated with MAIS 3+ injuries. The comparison between the marginal effects of the variables estimated by the MAIS and LHS models showed significant differences. In addition to the differences in the magnitude of impact of each variable, we found that the impact of the road environment variable was dependent on the injury severity classification.

Conclusions: The differences in the effects of risk factors between the classifications highlight the importance of using a reliable classification of injury severity. Additionally, the relationship between LHS and MAIS levels is quite different among countries, supporting the previous conclusion that bias is expected in the assessment of risk factors if an injury severity classification other than MAIS is used.     

贵州省水资源承载力的空间地域差异

水资源承载力是一个国家或地区可持续发展过程中各种自然资源承载力的重要组成部分,对一个国家或地区综合的发展和发展规模有至关重要的影响。由于水资源承载力是涉及到人口、社会经济发展以及资源环境在内的复杂巨系统,通过利用综合多种因素的状态空间法,从综合、宏观的角度来描述研究区域现实的承载状况,并对其进行定量化表示和分析。以贵州省为例,根据其具体情况,选取了9个指标构成评价指标体系,并对各指标运用反映客观赋权的熵值法进行权重的确定,然后通过状态空间法求算出贵州省现实的水资源承载状态值及其理想状态值。计算结果表明,贵州省目前的水资源承载状况总体上处于超载状态,但不同的地区又有所差异,表现出一定的空间地域性。根据贵州省水资源承载的现状值与理想值的比较,把整个贵州省水资源承载力划分为3种类型区：严重超载区、满载区及可载区。计算结果符合贵州省水资源实际情况,对贵州省水资源的可持续利用具有一定的现实指导意义。     

表面活性剂对土壤中多氯联苯的洗脱研究

采用实验室配置的PCBs污染土壤,以曲拉通X-100、吐温-80、SDS、SDBS 4种表面活性剂进行洗脱试验研究。结果表明:对于单一表面活性剂,SDS对污染土壤中多氯联苯的洗脱效果最好;采用1:20的固液比,进行2~3次洗脱,洗脱率可达50%以上;洗脱时间对洗脱效果影响不大;SDS—吐温-80混合表面活性剂对多氯联苯有协同增溶作用,且在土壤上的吸附损失较小,SDS和吐温-80的最佳质量比为5:5,在此条件下,浓度为7 000 mg/L的混合表面活性剂对多氯联苯污染土壤进行3次洗脱,洗脱率可高达97.89%。     

生物滴滤塔净化含硫混合废气

利用甲硫醚(DMS)降解菌Alcaligenes sp.SY1和丙硫醇(PT)降解菌Pseudomonas putida.S-1强化生物滴滤塔(BTF)处理DMS和PT的混合废气,研究了其挂膜启动及稳定运行阶段的降解性能,并考察了该系统同时去除H2S的能力.结果表明,BTF在DMS和PT进口浓度均为50 mg·m-3,EBRT为30 s的条件下,运行11 d即可完成挂膜启动,填料上的生物量明显增加,DMS、PT的去除率分别可达到90%和100%.系统稳定运行时,DMS和PT的最大去除负荷分别为8.7 g·(m~3·h)~(-1)和12.4 g·(m~3·h)~(-1),PT的去除效果更佳.DMS和PT混合废气在降解过程中,PT对DMS的降解有较明显的抑制作用,当PT进气浓度大于51 mg·m-3时,DMS的去除效率下降.BTF还能同时有效去除H2S,当混合废气中H2S浓度达到230 mg·m-3时,H2S去除率仍能高达98%,但是115 mg·m-3以上的H2S会对DMS的降解产生不利影响.     

Changing governance structures and the environment: economy–environment relations at the local and regional scales

Two substantive bodies of research have developed in recent years, both of which have a focus upon local and regional scales. First, there has been the development of work on changing forms of local and regional governance. This has drawn on a range of theoretical perspectives, including notions of institutional capacity, urban regime theory and neo-regulationalist accounts. Second, a body of research has developed into environmental policy and sustainable development, but this has largely been normative and undertheorized. While these two bodies of literature have developed separately, we believe there is merit in bringing the insights from each together. A focus on local environmental policy helps to broaden our understanding of local governance and problems of after-Fordist regulation. Such a project also helps to illuminate problems in implementing policy on the environment and sustainability. The examination of changing local and regional forms of governance allows us to identify new state spaces, which may provide opportunities for the strategic insertion of environmental objectives into economic development policies. This paper seeks to theorize such environment–economy relations and emerging multi-scalar forms of environmental governance, drawing upon case study research work in six UK local authority areas. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于供应链和可拓决策的食品安全预警模型及其应用

为提高食品安全预警能力,改善食品安全状况,以食品原料供应环境质量、生产加工、流通加工、销售食品质量、食品安全管理与监测作为食品安全预警的关键因素,提出一种基于供应链和可拓决策的食品安全预警模型。从供应链的角度建立食品安全预警指标体系,确定食品安全的经典域、节域和预警对象;建立食品安全预警模型并给出食品安全预警的方法和步骤;结合A省2010年的食品安全数据,定量评价A省食品安全预警状态,结合模型评价结果进行单指标和综合安全预警分析,验证该模型的合理性和适用性。研究结果表明:针对食品安全状况与预警特征,运用基于供应链和可拓决策的食品安全预警模型,能够对食品安全状态进行快速判断并有效预警。