基于CMIP5模式数据渭河流域近200年来径流变化

基于CMIP5模式输出的1850—2005年渭河流域17个站点的径流模数数据,采用线性回归、变差系数、小波分析及Mann-Kendall检验方法,分析了渭河流域径流时空变化特征,探讨了径流变化的原因。结果表明：渭河流域径流的空间分布为西南高东北低,最大值位于渭源、武山区域,最小值位于下游支流的洛河区域。年径流表现出波动变化,1850—1896年、1929—1939年、1968—1984年径流呈上升趋势,1896—1929年、1939—1968年、1984—2005年呈下降趋势,年平均径流趋势率为?0.004 L?(km²?s) ^?1?(10a) ^?1。春、夏、秋、冬径流趋势率分别为?0.002 L?(km²·s) ^?1?(10a) ^?1、0.022 L?(km²?s) ^?1?(10a) ^?1、?0.033 L?(km²?s) ^?1?(10a) ^?1、?0.004 L?(km²?s) ^?1?(10a) ^?1。渭河流域支流径流变率较大,干流变率较小,支流径流变率依次为北洛河＞石川河＞泾河＞漆水河＞千河＞葫芦河＞散渡河。年平均径流在1871年、1908年、1984年、1990年发生突变,而且具有4—6 a,8—10 a,15—20 a,25—35 a,85—95 a,110—120 a的显著周期。相关分析表明：气温、蒸发量与径流为反相关,降水与径流为正相关,土地利用及人类活动对径流也有一定影响。这些研究为认识过去长时期径流变化规律,以及渭河流域水生态环境管理提供了依据,对比较不同资料径流研究也提供了参考。     

长三角地区生态城镇化空间格局及影响因素

生态城镇化作为新型城镇化的重要组成部分,是生态文明理念的具体实践。以长三角地区41个城市为研究区域,构建区域生态城镇化指标体系,测度2000—2018年生态城镇化的发展水平,探究生态城镇化指数的时空演化特征及影响因素的作用机制。结果表明：（1）长三角地区生态城镇化水平整体呈上升趋势,高值区逐渐在浙江集聚,低值区在江苏北部和安徽北部集中,各城市生态城镇化指数差距逐渐缩小,区域生态一体化程度不断提高。（2）长三角地区生态城镇化水平的空间自相关性逐渐增强,其空间演化具有较强的变动性、依赖性和整合性,变动性自西至东逐渐减弱,依赖性自西北至东南逐渐增强。（3）财政投入水平、城乡收入差距、工业发展水平、土地投资强度、人口密集程度和科技发展水平对长三角地区生态城镇化水平的影响依次降低,在众多因素的综合作用下,各城市生态城镇化水平逐渐趋同。加强区域生态一体化建设,提高区域生态城镇化水平,是建设美丽中国的有效途径,也是实现区域高质量发展的必然选择。     

中国国土空间规划法律体系：问题检视与框架重构

通过对现行空间规划法律规范的体系性检视,发现由于立法策略、部门立法以及规划立法依附性等原因,其存在顶层立法付之阙如、外部结构冗杂扁平、内部规范碎片冲突等问题。遵循领域法、发展法以及体系化逻辑,国土空间规划立法应以现实问题与治理现代化为导向,在突破部门法壁垒的同时注重法制发展的接续性,力求实现国土空间规划法律体系的形式协调与价值融贯。构建国土空间规划法律体系,对内应确立国土空间规划法的基本法地位并辅之以配套立法,对外应注重与国土空间开发保护法等相关立法、国土空间政策与技术标准的衔接,最终构架起一个主轴明确、层次严密、差序有别的圆锥状国土空间规划法律体系。     

Seasonal differences in sources and formation processes of PM2.5 nitrate in an urban environment of North China

Nitrate (NO₃⁻) has been the dominant ion of secondary inorganic aerosols (SIAs) in PM_2.5 in North China. Tracking the formation mechanisms and sources of particulate nitrate are vital to mitigate air pollution. In this study, PM_2.5 samples in winter (January 2020) and in summer (June 2020) were collected in Jiaozuo, China, and water-soluble ions and (δ¹⁵N, δ¹⁸O)-NO₃⁻ were analyzed. The results showed that the increase of NO₃⁻ concentrations was the most remarkable with increasing PM_2.5 pollution level. δ¹⁸O-NO₃⁻ values for winter samples (82.7‰ to 103.9‰) were close to calculated δ¹⁸O-HNO₃ (103‰ ± 0.8‰) values by N₂O₅ pathway, while δ¹⁸O-NO₃⁻ values (67.8‰ to 85.7‰) for summer samples were close to calculated δ¹⁸O-HNO₃ values (61‰ ± 0.8‰) by OH oxidation pathway, suggesting that PM_2.5 nitrate is largely from N₂O₅ pathway in winter, while is largely from OH pathway in summer. Averaged fractional contributions of P_N2O5+H2O were 70% and 39% in winter and summer sampling periods, respectively, those of P_OH were 30% and 61%, respectively. Higher δ¹⁵N-NO₃⁻ values for winter samples (3.0‰ to 14.4‰) than those for summer samples (-3.7‰ to 8.6‰) might be due to more contributions from coal combustion in winter. Coal combustion (31% ± 9%, 25% ± 9% in winter and summer, respectively) and biomass burning (30% ± 12%, 36% ± 12% in winter and summer, respectively) were the main sources using Bayesian mixing model. These results provided clear evidence of particulate nitrate formation and sources under different PM_2.5 levels, and aided in reducing atmospheric nitrate in urban environments.     

Impact of perceptual countermeasures on driving behavior at curves using driving simulator

Objective: The probability of crash occurrence on horizontal curves is 1.5 to 4 times higher than that on tangent sections. A majority of these crashes are associated with human errors. Therefore, human behavior in curves needs to be corrected.

Methodology: In this study, 2 different road marking treatments, optical circles and herringbone patterns, were used to influence driver behavior while entering a curve on a 2-lane rural road section. A driving simulator was used to perform the experiment. The simulated road sections are replicas of 2 real road sections in Flanders.

Results: Both treatments were found to reduce speed before entering the curve. However, speed reduction was more gradual when optical circles were used. A herringbone pattern had more influence on lateral position than optical circles by forcing drivers to maintain a safe distance from opposing traffic in the adjacent lane.

Conclusion: The study concluded that among other low-cost speed reduction methods, optical circles are effective tools to reduce speed and increase drivers’ attention. Moreover, a herringbone pattern can be used to reduce crashes on curves, mainly for head-on crashes where the main problem is inappropriate lateral position.     

武汉市湿地破碎化对生态系统服务价值的影响研究

以湖泊资源丰富的武汉市为例,通过景观格局指数测定该市湿地破碎化程度,借助GIS技术评估该市湿地生态系统服务价值,并探讨了城市湿地破碎化对生态系统服务价值的影响。结果表明:①2000—2015年武汉市湿地总体破碎化趋势有所缓和,但人工湿地相较于自然湿地破碎化程度要高,特别是2010—2015年湿地总面积下降了2.80%,而斑块密度上升了4.12%,湖泊破碎化程度较高。②2000—2015年,武汉市湿地ESV增长了323.27亿元,各类型湿地的生态系统服务价值表现为湖泊>水库坑塘>河流>沼泽。③湿地景观破碎化与部分调节性、支持性和文化性服务功能存在着显著相关关系。     

Spatial modelling of socioeconomic data to understand patterns of human-caused wildfire ignition risk in the SW of Madrid (central Spain)

The majority of wildfires in the Mediterranean Basin are caused directly or indirectly by human activity. Many biophysical and socioeconomic factors have been used in quantitative analyses of wildfire risk. However, the importance and effects of socioeconomic factors in spatial modelling have been given inadequate attention. In this paper, we use different approaches to spatially model our data to examine the influence of human activity on wildfire ignition in the south west of the Madrid region, central Spain. We examine the utility of choropleth and dasymetric mapping with both Euclidean and functional distance surfaces for two differently defined wildfire seasons. We use a method from Bayesian statistics, the Weights of Evidence model, and produce ten predictive maps of wildfire risk: (1) five maps for a two-month fire season combining datasets of evidence variables and (2) five maps for the four-month fire season using the same dataset combinations. We find that the models produced from a choropleth mapping approach with spatial variables using Euclidian and functional distance surfaces are the best of the ten models. Results indicate that spatial patterns of wildfire ignition are strongly associated with human access to the natural landscape. We suggest the methods and results presented will be useful to optimize wildfire prevention resources in areas where human activity and the urban-forest interface are important factors for wildfire ignition.     

吴江市土地利用变化及其生态效应

利用1993、2000和2004年吴江市的遥感影像,在GIS和RS支持下,通过构建土地利用转移矩阵对土地利用变化进行分析,并对其产生的生态效应进行研究。结果表明,吴江市的耕地基底向建设用地基底转化,生态系统结构的多样性和均匀度降低,景观整体形状趋于规则;生态系统功能退化,耕地的减少以及建设用地面积的增加是导致总价值减少的主导力量,而水域生态服务价值的增加是阻止其显著减少的原因;水源涵养和废物处理功能贡献度最大,超过总价值的50%;汾湖镇所占生态服务价值比重最高,分别为24.2%、25.21%2、5.13%,桃源镇所占比重最低。     

基于多模式逆向水质模型的程海水位调控-水质响应预测研究

以云南省程海为例,基于CE-QUAL-W2计算平台开发了水动力-水质模型.由于程海现有的数据不足以支撑开发可靠的流域水文与污染物负荷模型,为弥补由此引起的水质模型边界条件缺失的限制,本研究提出了基于逆向模拟与遗传算法的多模式负荷-参数识别方法来实现对水质模型的校正和鲁棒校验.应用校验后的模型对程海不同水位调控情景的水质...     

牛栏江污染物源解析与空间差异性分析

牛栏江-滇池补水是缓解滇池生态用水短缺的重要工程,对牛栏江流域主要污染源与空间差异性的识别分析,将有助于进一步改善牛栏江的水质. 采用CFA(对应分析)对牛栏江流域污染源进行解析识别,结果表明流域内TN、NH₃-N(氨氮)等污染物主要来源于嵩明县境内,TP、氟化物等污染物主要来源于寻甸县境内. 在CFA分析的基础上,采用HCA(层次聚类分析)和SOM(自组织映射神经网络)对4个监测点、10种污染物指标进行分析,以识别空间分布的差异性和相似性,并且评价各指标的空间分布特征及监测点代表性. 结果表明:4个监测点中,TP、氟化物、砷化物、Vph(挥发酚)在寻甸县境内的七星桥污染最严重;TN、NH₃-N在牛栏江上游嵩明县境内的四营污染最重. 结合流域污染负荷调查可知,寻甸县的磷负荷最大,占流域总负荷的58.73%,七星桥的TP污染贡献大于其他3个监测点,与七星桥TP污染最为严重相符合. 该研究结果可为牛栏江流域实施进一步的分段治理提供决策支撑.