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971.
972.
Safety assessment has a primary role in hazardous operations. Most studies on safety assessment focus on risk and accident modeling, in which safety is absent. These top-down methods are highly dependent on the occurred accidents to establish accidental scenarios, which may make the assessment approach lagging behind the evolving modern systems. Moreover, this “special to general” logic is scientifically suspect in safety assessment. There is a call for the development of safety assessment methods in the presence of system safety to complement risk-focused safety analysis. These methods should provide a framework based on a bottom-up approach to examine system safety from the operational perspective. This paper has attempted to provide a potential solution. In particular, a novel concept of safety entropy is proposed to integrate with The Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM), which is used to form the qualitative understanding of a system. A formula consisted of safety entropy, functional conformability, and system complexity has been established to determine the spontaneity of the safety state-changing process. The proposed method is applied to the safety assessment of a propane feed-control system. The results show the applicability of the method. Nevertheless, the model still needs to be further improved to fulfill better support for safety-related decision problems. 相似文献
973.
本文根据灰色关联分析的基本性质,提出一种环境质量综合评价的新方法。该方法用待评价样本各指标值组成参考数列,环境质量分级标准值组成被比较数列,通过计算参考数列与被比较数列的关联度,按最优关联识别原则综合评价环境质量等级。用4个实例与其它方法进行了对比,取得满意的效果。 相似文献
974.
用事故树分析法进行炼厂油罐爆炸事故的环境风险评价 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
论述了风险、风险评价、环境风险评价的概念及其主要内容,说明利用事故树分析法进行工程环境风险评价的程序和方法。并运用这种方法对某炼厂油罐爆炸事故进行了大气环境风险评价。 相似文献
975.
Giuliano Cecchi William Wint Alexandra Shaw Andrea Marletta Raffaele Mattioli Timothy Robinson 《Agriculture, ecosystems & environment》2010,135(1-2):98-110
The central role played by livestock in the livelihoods of rural households in the developing world is seldom fully appreciated by policy makers, development agencies and donors. Knowledge gaps in the geographic distribution and environmental determinants of farming systems, especially if viewed through the livestock lens, compound this problem. We have produced a map of pastoral, agro-pastoral and mixed farming systems across Eastern Africa, by analysing datasets collected in the framework of livelihood analysis. Input data were gathered between 2000 and 2007 by various emergency and development agencies for Djibouti, Eritrea, Kenya, Somalia, Uganda and parts of Ethiopia and Sudan. A quantitative definition of the production systems is adopted, based on the ratio of livestock- to crop-derived income. The resulting livelihood-based map of livestock production systems was compared through correspondence analysis to an alternative livestock production systems map, produced independently from environmental data. Convergence between the two mapping approaches was evident. The geographic distribution of the livestock production systems was also modelled using multivariate analysis of remotely sensed and other geospatial datasets. Models show high statistical accuracy, and were thus used to fill the gaps in the observed distribution of livestock production systems. Finally, selected environmental factors underpinning the systems (agro-climatology, human and livestock populations and land cover) were analysed in detail, enabling the livestock production systems to be characterized in terms of them. The regional scope of the map, as well as its direct link with a vast amount of livelihood information, render it a valuable tool for a range of development and research applications, including those related to global change. 相似文献
976.
应对突发事件,制定行之有效的应急预案是保障人民生命财产安全与社会稳定的重要措施.本文在分析我国应急预案编制过程中存在的问题的基础上,探讨了如何利用情景分析的方法实现应急预案的有效编制的程序,即从灾害风险评估到情景设置与分析、响应策略的制定、实施计划、辅助操作与应急准备等一系列环环相扣的步骤,旨在从情景模拟中提炼出切实可... 相似文献
977.
978.
以山东省2014年PM2.5浓度监测数据为对象,利用时空指示克里格理论和方法,实现对PM2.5时空分布的不确定性分析.结果表明,山东省境内PM2.5的空间自相关范围大于100km,时间自相关范围为3d左右.此外,山东省境内各空间位置全年空气质量以大于0.8的概率达到空气质量"优"级别的时空占比为7%,以大于0.8的概率达到轻度污染级别的时空占比为34%,以大于0.8的概率超过严重污染级别的时空占比为1%;东部沿海地域空气质量达到轻度污染的概率明显高于中西部,夏季空气质量也明显优于其它季节. 相似文献
979.
为了研究钢筋混凝土防爆墙的抗爆能力,采用有限元分析方法对不同纵向配筋率、不同高跨比、不同厚度的墙体在爆炸动态荷载作用下的动力响应进行研究,对各种不同设置的钢筋混凝土防爆墙的抗爆性能进行评估。结果表明:减小高跨比对提高钢筋混凝土防爆墙的抗爆能力最为重要,提高纵向配筋率,增加厚度都能增加防爆墙的抗爆能力。 相似文献
980.
The Bhopal Gas Leak, India 1984 is the largest chemical industrial accident ever. Haddon's and Berger's models for injury analysis have been tested, together with the project planning tool Logical Framework Approach (LFA).
The three models provide the same main message: That irrespectively of the direct cause to the leakage, it is only two parties that are responsible for the magnitude of the disaster: Union Carbide Corporation and the Governments of India and Madhya Pradesh. The models give somewhat different images of the process of the accident.
Models developed for analysis of injuries can be used for analysing a complicated mega accident like the Bhopal gas leak, although different models might stress different aspects. 相似文献