铁路信号PES安全性定量分析的研究

铁路信号中的可编程电子系统 (PES)是一种安全相关系统。这类系统更注重失效 -安全 ,而不仅仅是可靠性或可用性。基于系统的可靠性分析方法 ,给出了一种安全性定量分析方法。通过把失效率划分为一些独立的部分 ,据其各自失效率的影响 ,利用 Markov模型可同时分析系统的可靠性和安全性。笔者根据铁路信号 PES常用的 2 oo2 D(附加诊断的二取二 )容错结构给出了方法应用的实例     

空气质量预报在世界互联网大会中的应用

为支持世界互联网大会期间大气污染管控工作，利用人工结合数值模式预报的方式在第二届到第五届世界互联网大会期间开展空气质量预报工作。多模式系统中WRF-CMAQ对乌镇及浙北区域大气污染变化的趋势模拟最好，2016—2018年对AQI日均值模拟的平均分数偏差（MFB）和平均分数误差（MFE）分别为-1.3%~1.6%和24.3%~28.3%。会前48 h、72 h和96 h空气质量等级预报准确率分别为37.5%~83.3%、33.3%~90.0%和0~89.9%。会议期间乌镇的AQI日均值48 h预报准确率为33.3%~100%，等级预报准确率为66.7%~100%。与日常空气质量预报不同，会议期间预报还应重点关注大气污染过程，如有污染可能性，需要给出污染过程的起始时间、持续范围和浓度峰值等情况及其关键时间节点，有针对性地提出大气污染管控的措施建议，为会议期间空气质量保障提供技术支撑。     

Aerobic granular sludge formation based on substrate availability: Effects of flow pattern and fermentation pretreatment

• Penetration depth and substrate characters affect AGS formation and performance. • The relationship between substrate gradient and particle size affects AGS stability. • The fermentation process is proposed as a pretreatment to improve AGS stability. The influences of flow patterns (mixed-flow and plug-flow) and fermentation pretreatment on aerobic granular sludge (AGS) formation with various substrate availability levels were investigated by running four identical laboratory-scale sequencing batch reactors (R1–R4), comparing two anaerobic feeding strategies and three kinds of substrates. R1 achieved faster granulation with a fast influent fill step followed by a modified anaerobic mixed-flow phase, but the AGS showed poorer stability with a cracked structure and a high suspended solids concentration in the effluent. The anaerobic plug-flow feeding mode (with influent fed slowly from the bottom) in R2 provided deeper penetration depth for the substance to reach the core of AGS and accordingly strengthen AGS stability. An acidogenic up-flow sludge bed reactor was introduced as a pretreatment to improve the AGS performance by enhancing glucose pre-fermentation (R4). AGS fed with mixed volatile fatty acids (VFA) after glucose fermentation showed similar performance compared with the reactor fed with acetate in the aspects of stability, structure, size distribution and nitrogen removal efficiency, and 74% similarity in the microbial community. For actual wastewater with low VFA concentrations, fermentation treatment was suggested as a promising pretreatment for stable AGS granulation and operation.     

"无废城市"建设的结构模式与主要思路

从"无废城市"建设的现实约束与政策背景出发,结合国际社会在"无废城市"建设过程中已经积累的经验与方案,探析中国"无废城市"建设的必要性和可行性。在对"无废城市"基本定义与关键环节把握的前提下,基于协同联动与系统集成原则对"无废城市"建设的基本结构与运作模式进行模型建构,并重点阐释了基于废弃物减量化原则创新设计"无废城市"产业与能源布局、基于废弃物资源化原则建构"无废城市"废弃物智能管理系统、基于简约适度绿色生活理念建立"无废城市"创新治理模式等主要建设思路。     

基于时序MODIS-NDVI的油菜种植面积变化趋势分析——以江汉平原为例

油菜是我国主要油料作物,其种植与监测对于保障食油生产安全具有重要意义。本文以江汉平原作为研究区,利用2002~2014年250 m分辨率的MODIS-NDVI时序数据,采用经验模态分解(EMD)方法,结合地面调查数据以及作物物候数据等辅助数据,获取主要地物覆盖类型的端元信息,然后利用线性光谱混合模型(LSMM)进行混合像元分解,得到油菜种植面积丰度的空间分布。结果表明,EMD方法较好地过滤了时序数据的噪声;经年鉴统计数据验证,油菜提取面积精度达到了92.5%以上,R2大于0.9。油菜种植面积的时空变化结果很好地反映出江汉平原油菜种植面积总体呈增长态势。此外,政策导向和市场价格对油菜种植面积的影响明显。     

Trends in per capita ecological footprint and biocapacity in China 1949–2013

This paper proposes two concepts: the ecological footprint component index(EFCI) and the biocapacity component index(BCCI), based on the ecological footprint(EF) and Shannon entropy approaches. Per capita EFCI and BCCI in China 1949-2013 are analyzed using empirical mode decomposition(EMD). Nonlinear models of per capita EFCI and BCCI in China 1949-2013 are presented and their cycles and predictions from 2014 to 2023 are analyzed. The results over the last 65 years show:(1) EFCI in China has increased constantly with fluctuations, while BCCI has slowly decreased. Their annual change rates are 2.81% and-1.26%, respectively. The increasing EFCI indicates a gradual improvement in China's sustainable development potential; the decreasing BCCI indicates severe environmental and population challenges.(2) The cycles of per capita EFCI have periods of 5.4 and 16.3 years, while cycles of per capita BCCI have periods of 3.6, 13,and 21.7 years. The predictive models indicate that EFCI will first decrease, reaching 0.02725 in2014, and will subsequently increase to 0.03261 in 2021. BCCI will increase, reaching 0.01365 in2014 and 0.01541 in 2022. EFCI and BCCI will reach 0.03037 and 0.01537, respectively, in 2023.Policymakers should ensure that the EFCI and BCCI increase in 2023.     

A novel Dempster-Shafer theory-based approach with weighted average for failure mode and effects analysis under uncertainty

Risk priority number (RPN) is a commonly-used prioritization method in failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) for systemic reliability and safety study. However, conventional RPN confronts wide criticisms, due to the neglect of the uncertainties of experts' opinions. It is important to handle the conflicts among experts' multi-opinions which could be described in imprecise, incomplete or crisp forms in lack of knowledge. In this paper, a novel method is proposed to alleviate and/or eliminate counter-intuitive behaviors against conflicts among multi-opinions under Dempster-Shafer theory. Firstly, the abnormity test for experts’ opinions is undertaken to identify and discard those distinct judgments. Then, an approach to determining the subjective weights of experts is proposed, which is used in weighted average for multi-opinions before calculating RPNs. Finally, the risk priority evaluation on main engine crankcase explosion failure on-board ship is implemented to verify the feasibility of the proposed approach.     

遥感法与ASM5025工况法对照检测尾气排放

在重庆市主城区募集100辆长安SC系列点燃式发动机在用汽车进行遥感法和ASM5025工况法尾气排放状况对照检测实验。结果表明,受发动机负荷与转速的共同影响,多数车辆NOx和HC遥测值比工况值小,而CO则相反。通过对工况值（y）与遥测值（x）的回归分析,得到CO的回归方程为y=0.93x＋115.36,t检验显示方程具有线性（α=0.10）。经大量实验论证合理后,方程可作为制定点燃式发动机在用汽车遥感法CO地方标准排放限值的依据。     

经济增长是否能自动解决环境问题——倒U型环境库兹涅茨曲线是内生机制结果还是外部控制结果

环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)认为随着经济的增长,环境污染情况呈现先加剧后减轻的趋势。传统的观点认为经济增长能够内生性地自动解决环境问题,把倒U型EKC出现逆转趋势的原因归结为经济增长本身,认为经济增长达到一定程度后环境问题能够得到自动解决。本文使用2001-2010年的数据构造了综合污染指数CPI对环境和经济增长的关系进行实证研究,先使用实际污染物排放量和处理后污染物排放量作为对比,发现在不考虑污染物处理因素的情况下,使用实际排放量得出的结果全部是线性增加的,使用处理后排放量的计量结果显示CPI与人均GDP的关系呈倒U型。然后引入产业结构、居民素质、技术进步、政府行为、外商投资、产业集中度、人口密度七个变量对传统的EKC进行补充解释,找出了哪些是主要影响因素,哪些是次要影响因素,并对东部、中部、西部的区域差异进行实证和解释。结果表明,环境和经济增长的"倒U"型关系不是经济增长内生机制所致,而是诸多外部控制措施作用的结果,环境污染很难随着经济增长而自动减轻,改善环境质量要从经济和社会的方方面面入手,综合调整经济社会发展模式才是根本途径。     

安徽矿业企业境外资源开发模式研究

为了缓解资源供给压力,保证经济健康与可持续发展,安徽省政府在2008年明确提出要“走出去”开发境外的矿产资源。在国际矿业市场主流资源开发模式研究的基础上,对安徽矿业企业的投资环境进行战略分析,提出安徽省可以将“走出去”分为三个阶段,在每个阶段分别配合实行相应的矿产开发模式以顺利达到开发目标,实现自身发展。