区域主体功能实现与自然资源利用的定量关系研究

主体功能区划通过主体功能划分的方式将开发和保护结合,自然资源开发利用复杂化过程中资源利用与目标实现之间亟需实现基本的定量核算关系。本文从自然资源可持续利用角度,试图探讨建立初步的主体功能核算关系,通过核算框架进行生产、生活、生态主体功能概算与比较。以京津冀主体功能区与水资源为例,对所设立的核算关系进行了验证与应用,并构造绝对与相对量指标量化京津冀主体功能量、功能水资源投入量与效率,进行了异空间尺度与异质性功能的比较,为以主体功能实现最大化为目标的资源优化配置提供量化工具。结果显示:①利用生态服务价值测算的当量因子法与水足迹测算的投入产出法,刻画了水资源对于地区主体功能的支撑作用。②利用功能总量与单位功能水资源投入量指标完成了异质性功能在异质性空间上规模、结构、相应水资源效率的比较。基于算例结果得到以下结论:①本文构建的自然资源-主体功能核算关系框架能够有效衔接主体功能规划,定量核算能有效反映与评价资源对区域功能目标、经济开发活动的支撑作用。②区域资源配置存在相对功能实现的效率差异,可根据资源投入与功能产出之间的关系引导实现功能最大化目标的资源配置。合理、有效的量化手段能够推进主体功能制度的落实,也有助于当前中国空间规划体系编制与落实的实际指导效果。     

Listing for change? Exploring the politics of relief lists in Bangladesh after Cyclone Sidr

Ideal notions of efficient aid are challenged continuously by realities on the ground in the wake of major disasters, such as dire needs, limited resources, and opportunism. This paper demonstrates how ‘relief lists’ can be productive entry points for a systematic inquiry into the pervasive politics of disaster assistance. Through an analysis of qualitative data collected during the five years after Cyclone Sidr struck Bangladesh on 15 November 2007, it examines how relief lists featured in both physical and phantom forms and then developed beyond their transparency-making aims, becoming elevated sites of struggle for post-disaster resources. Three list processes, selected to indicate the temporal, material, and spatial dynamics of relief encounters, are assessed in depth. Although recipients of cyclone relief appreciated its value, the paper argues that list politics also stimulated structures of vulnerability, including inequality. Gradually, relief, as governed after Sidr, also served to restore the differential vulnerability of the country's coastal poor.     

Modelling Phosphorus Retention in Lakes and Reservoirs

Steady-state models for the prediction of P retention coefficient (R) in lakes were evaluated using data from 93 natural lakes and 119 reservoirs situated in the temperate zone. Most of the already existing models predicted R relatively successfully in lakes while it was seriously under-estimated in reservoirs. A statistical analysis indicated the main causes of differences in R between lakes and reservoirs: (a) distinct relationships between P sedimentation coefficient, depth, and water residence time; (b) existence of significant inflow–outflow P concentration gradients in reservoirs. Two new models of different complexity were developed for estimating R in reservoirs: , where τ is water residence time (year), was derived from the Vollenweider/Larsen and Mercier model by adding a calibrated parameter accounting for spatial P non-homogeneity in the water body, and is applicable for reservoirs but not lakes, and , where [P_in] is volume-weighted P concentration in all inputs to the water body (μg l⁻¹), was obtained by re-calibrating the OECD general equation, and is generally applicable for both lakes and reservoirs. These optimised models yield unbiased estimates over a large range of reservoir types.     

Assessing the Effects of Alternative Setback Channel Constraint Scenarios Employing a River Meander Migration Model

River channel migration and cutoff events within large river riparian corridors create heterogeneous and biologically diverse landscapes. However, channel stabilization (riprap and levees) impede the formation and maintenance of riparian areas. These impacts can be mitigated by setting channel constraints away from the channel. Using a meander migration model to measure land affected, we examined the relationship between setback distance and riparian and off-channel aquatic habitat formation on a 28-km reach of the Sacramento River, California, USA. We simulated 100 years of channel migration and cutoff events using 11 setback scenarios: 1 with existing riprap and 10 assuming setback constraints from about 0.5 to 4 bankfull channel widths (bankfull width: 235 m) from the channel. The percentage of land reworked by the river in 100 years relative to current (riprap) conditions ranged from 172% for the 100-m constraint setback scenario to 790% for the 800-m scenario. Three basic patterns occur as the setback distance increases due to different migration and cutoff dynamics: complete restriction of cutoffs, partial restriction of cutoffs, and no restriction of cutoffs. Complete cutoff restriction occurred at distances less than about one bankfull channel width (235 m), and no cutoff restriction occurred at distances greater than about three bankfull widths (∼700 m). Managing for point bars alone allows the setbacks to be narrower than managing for cutoffs and aquatic habitat. Results suggest that site-specific “restriction of cutoff” thresholds can be identified to optimize habitat benefits versus cost of acquired land along rivers affected by migration processes.     

A comparative analysis of predictors of sense of place dimensions: attachment to, dependence on, and identification with lakeshore properties

Sense of place can be conceived as a multidimensional construct representing beliefs, emotions and behavioural commitments concerning a particular geographic setting. This view, grounded in attitude theory, can better reveal complex relationships between the experience of a place and attributes of that place than approaches that do not differentiate cognitive, affective and conative domains. Shoreline property owners (N=290) in northern Wisconsin were surveyed about their sense of place for their lakeshore properties. A predictive model comprising owners' age, length of ownership, participation in recreational activities, days spent on the property, extent of property development, and perceptions of environmental features, was employed to explain the variation in dimensions of sense of place. In general, the results supported a multidimensional approach to sense of place in a context where there were moderate to high correlations among the three place dimensions. Perceptions of environmental features were the biggest predictors of place dimensions, with owners' perceptions of lake importance varying in explanatory power across place dimensions.     

Estimate on spillover effect of environmental pollution between peripheral areas

ABSTRACT

Interaction of environmental pollution between peripheral areas has become a central topic in the field of resources and environment but little is known about the actual impact on peripheral areas in the current literature. This paper sets out a simultaneous equation model to investigate the spillover effect of environmental pollution between China’s peripheral areas utilizing the panel data of 218 cities in China. Making use of indicators for measuring the impact on environmental pollution, it identifies that environmental pollution between cities of China has a significant two-way spillover effect. After standardization of variables, it is found that the spillover effect of peripheral areas on urban environmental pollution cannot be neglected. Nearly, a third of the environmental pollution level in a city is induced by the environmental pollution in peripheral areas. If the indicator of environmental pollution in peripheral areas is missing, wrong conclusions will be drawn. Therefore, government should shift the emphasis of environmental regulation from local to global, and improve the overall environmental quality through coordinated management of regional environment.     

粮食基础设施震后恢复重建关键问题研究

在对汶川8.0级地震后绵阳市粮食基础设施破坏情况调研的基础上,提出恢复与发展并重、粮食基础设施节点与网络并行、推进行业整合和信息化的建设思路,规划了绵阳市灾后恢复重建的维修保障和重建发展项目,并对规划实施效果进行了经济和社会效益分析。     

泥石流危险度的改进集对分析模型

泥石流危险度的正确评估是泥石流灾害治理和工程措施的基础,但泥石流危险度评价是一个极其复杂的不确定性问题.基于集对分析理论,探讨了泥石流危险度的集对分析改进新方法,即基于样本评价指标实测值与讨论泥石流标准危险度类别间的接近程度,判别集对同异反,进而应用模糊联系度的概念挖掘样本与讨论类别相邻类别的集对同异反有效信息,以综合定量分析样本的危险度,从而提高评价结果的町靠性和准确性.实例应用及与其他方法对比结果表明,基于改进的集对分析方法来评价泥石流危险度是有效可行的,町以取得理想的结果,且操作简单.     

人工园林大面积种植区土地利用/覆被变化对生态系统服务价值影响

近10a来由于经济利益的驱动,橡胶、茶园、咖啡和桉树等人工园林在云南省西南部西盟县大规模种植,使土地利用结构和布局发生了较大变化,影响了种植区的生态系统服务价值。以西盟县为研究对象,基于2000年、2005年和2010年的遥感影像解译的土地利用/覆被数据,参照"中国生态系统单位面积生态服务价值当量",修订了西盟县生态系统单位面积服务价值,结合敏感度分析,探讨了土地利用/覆被变化及其对生态系统服务价值的影响。结果表明:(1)2000~2010年西盟县的耕地、园地、水域和乡镇用地面积增加,林地和草地面积减少,西南部的土地利用/覆盖类型相互转化主要表现在林地和耕地转化为园地,而东北部表现在林地转化为耕地;(2)从时间上看,生态系统服务价值呈减少趋势,10 a间净减少106.29×106元,林地的生态系统服务价值始终最高;(3)研究期内,只有食物生产服务有价值量的增加,其余生态系统服务的价值量均为不同程度的减少;(4)从空间上看,西盟县生态系统服务价值东北部和东南部高,西部、中部和东部低。力所乡生态系统服务价值有小幅度增加,其余乡镇均呈减少趋势。西盟县以经济利益为目的的发展模式给生态系统服务和可持续发展带来巨大压力,在一定程度上使区域整体生态效应下降。因此,西盟县的发展应该在保证生态系统稳定的前提下,适当发展园地,同时优化土地利用结构,在生态效益和经济利益之间,找到双赢的平衡点。     

气候变化和人类活动对丹江口入库径流的影响及评估

科学估算气候变化和人类活动对河川径流的影响,可以更为合理地规划利用地球水资源。针对丹江口水库入库径流的减少问题,分别采用Mann-Kendall方法和Pettitt检验,对1960~2012年间丹江口水库入库径流的年际和年内变化趋势进行了分析,并与同时期汉江上游20个地面观测站的降水、气温的年际和年内演化趋势进行了比较,从气候变化和人类活动影响的两个方面分析了入库径流减少的原因。在此基础上,利用气候弹性模型分别估算了气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响度。结果表明:近年来丹江口入库径流的减少主要受春季和秋季径流减少的影响,在春季径流的减少总量中,气候变化的贡献度为67%,人类活动为33%;秋季径流的减少总量中,气候变化的贡献度为88%,人类活动为12%。气候变化是导致丹江口入库径流减少的主要原因。