Impacts of interannual climate variability on past and future forest composition

Numerous analyses of the possible impacts of future climatic changes on tree species composition have been published for both lowland and high-elevation forests. Most of these studies were based on the application of forest "gap" models, and the vast majority of them considered only changes in the average of climatic parameters over time. In this study, we use a unique data set on reconstructed past climatic variations to analyse forest dynamics simulated by the forest gap model ForClim. This analysis forms the basis for a systematic exploration of the ecological effects of changing means vs. changing variability of climate on central European forests. A reconstruction of historical climate covering the last 470 years in the Swiss lowlands (ClimIndex) is extrapolated to a transect across the alpine (cold) treeline and used to simulate the influence of climate variations on the time scale of decades on forest biomass and tree species composition at both sites. While the simulation at the low-elevation site shows little sensitivity to climate variations, the results from upper subalpine forests suggest that two major dieback events would have occurred at elevations above the current but below the climatic tree line, induced by clusters of exceptionally cold summers. The results are in agreement with available dendrochronological data and with documentary evidence on massive negative impacts on flora and fauna at high elevations during these periods. We conclude that ForClim is capable of capturing the effects on tree population dynamics of climate variability at these sites as reconstructed from the ClimIndex record. A factorial design is used to address the sensitivity of ForClim to changes of the long-term averages vs. changes of the variability of monthly temperature and precipitation data. To this end, the simulated tree species composition of near-natural forests is examined along a climate gradient in Europe. The results indicate that there are three types of forest response: (1) little sensitivity to both kinds of change, (2) strong sensitivity to changes in the means, but little sensitivity to changing variability, and (3) strong sensitivity to changing variability at least in parts of the examined climate space. Half of the cases investigated fall under the third category, suggesting that emphasis should be placed on also assessing the sensitivity of ecosystems to future changes in climate variability rather than on changes of average values alone. Electronic Publication     

The Dynamics of Species Composition and Abundance of Wasps from the Families Pompilidae, Sphecidae, and Vespidae (Hymenoptera: Aculeata) in Successional Pine Biogeocenoses of the Berezinskii Biosphere Reserve

The data on the dynamics of population size and species composition of wasps from the families Pompilidae, Sphecidae, and Vespidae were obtained in the course of long-term studies carried out in successional pine forests of the Berezinskii Biosphere Reserve. The abundance and species diversity of wasps were significantly higher in a polewood forest (40 years) than in a young forest (20 years) and mature moss forest (70 years). In an overgrown ride in the moss pine forest, the composition of dominant wasp species remained relatively stable during the seven-year period of observations, although the number of species and their abundance varied significantly from year to year, depending on the weather.     

流域地理景观生成中纹理映射技术

洪水演进仿真系统的研制是进行“数字流域”工程建设的重要研究内容,系统的研制必须利用先进的模拟仿真与可视化方法等现代计算机技术,在计算机生成的虚拟环境中,对洪水在现实河道里的推进情况以及洪水对流域内区域的淹没情况进行仿真模拟。系统的可视化以流域地形的仿真为基础,流域三维景观的生成则是洪水演进仿真系统的主要可视化需求,纹理映射技术是实现流域三维景观的重要技术手段。在分析比较计算机图形学中的几种典型纹理映射方法基础上,针对复杂流域地形貌和卫星遥感流域数据源特点,研究了相应的纹理映射算法模型。使用Visual C 系统开发语言,依据清江流域的真实数据源生成清江流域三维网格地形,并基于OpenGl技术,运用逆透视过程和非参数映射方法,实现了清江流域三维景观的真实纹理粘贴,使生成的流域景观具有真实自然的三维可视化效果。     

森林资源经济利用的政策模拟模型应用研究

林业政策在对森林资源的培育、保护和利用方面起相当大的作用.在市场机制作用的框架下林业政策的作用更多的是通过影响市场机制传递的产品和生产要素的价格信号,进而影响生产经营主体的收益成本预期及其决策行为,最终影响到对森林资源的培育、保护和利用的效果,因此分析和认清林业政策对林业发展的作用机制和影响效果有重要的意义.本文基于市场机制.以林业经济福利为目标,把森林资源培育的第一产业环节和以森林资源为原料的第二产业发展结合一起作为完整的产业链,构建一个林业的政策模拟模型.利用该模型,对木材价格、林业税费、信贷利率和采伐限额等林业经济政策的影响进行了定量分析,着重比较了林业产权制度改革前后政策变化所产生的效应,以及所具有的激励效果,从而认识林业政策的变动和调整如何影响政策目标,为政策的制定和对合理政策进行选择提供参考的依据.     

瀑河水库蓄水后水质变化预测

瀑河水库拟作为南水北调中线的一个调蓄水库。在瀑河水库淹没区内布10个采样点，分别采集0－20、20－40、40－60cm深度的土壤，实验室中模拟水库蓄水淹没情景，连续监测“库水”水质，试验表明：蓄水初期土壤中营养物质溶出对库水水质有一定影响，且随着时间的推移，各营养物质溶出的速度及浓度变化不同，蓄水16天后浓度趋于平稳，库水水质达到地表水环境质量Ⅱ类标准，将模拟值作为初始值，利用WQRRS模型进行运行期水质预测，得到结论为：（1）当调水水质为Ⅰ和Ⅱ类标准值的中值、流域汛期径流水质为Ⅱ－Ⅴ类时，预测库水水质为Ⅱ－Ⅲ类；（2）当调水水质为Ⅱ类标准值的下限值、流域汛期径流水质为Ⅱ－Ⅴ类时，预测库水水质大多为Ⅲ类，部分情况下为Ⅳ类，且N、P超标；（3）当调水水质为Ⅰ和Ⅱ类标准值的中值、流域径流水质为Ⅱ类时，在2010、2020和2030水平年水库水质全部为Ⅱ类；当调水水质为Ⅱ类标准值的下限值时库水水质则为Ⅲ类。     

Fluctuations of Population Size and Structure in the Northern Mole Vole: Preliminary Analysis

Long-term stationary studies on the ecology of the northern mole vole (Ellobius talpinus Pall.), performed by the mark–recapture method from 1985 to 1997, have provided original data on population dynamics and structure. The analysis shows that, to reveal cyclic fluctuations of population size in this species, the period of three years should be taken as a unit of time for estimating the duration of one phase. The 12-year population cycle in E. talpinus has four distinct phases: an increase, a peak, a decline, and a minimum. At each phase, the population is characterized by certain features of family structure, age composition, birth and death rates, and the composition of migrants.     

Species composition and quantitative representation of fishes in biotopes with the riffle minnow <Emphasis Type="Italic">Alburnoides bipunctatus</Emphasis>

Species composition of fishes was studied in rivers (capture sites) inhabited by the riffle minnow. In some localities, this species proved to occupy a leading position in the ichthyofauna, being obviously dominant. In small rivers, 16 species were caught together with it, including seven species regularly occurring in catches. The relative abundance of riffle minnow showed a moderate positive correlation with that of the gudgeon (0.568) and a nonsignificant negative correlation (?0.399) with that of the bleak. It is probable that the population dynamics of riffle minnow are determined mainly by natural intraspecific mechanisms rather than by water quality, which has changed only slightly in the rivers studied.     

The role of floods in the Long-term dynamics of geobiont and chortobiont communities on islands of the Kuibyshev Reservoir

Interannual changes in geobiont and chortobiont abundance on the islands of Kuibyshev Reservoir are largely determined by flood conditions, because the seasonal average abundance of many taxa is negatively correlated to the water level in May and June. Floods influence the abundance of these animals both directly and indirectly, through biocenotic connections and some aspects of behavior. Long-term positive trends are observed in the abundance of many species. The hypothesis is proposed that this increase in the abundance of geobionts and chortobionts is a consequence of adaptation processes in these communities, which are stimulated by the flood regime of the reservoir.     

VIC模型与SWAT模型在中小流域径流模拟中的对比研究

结合GIS与RS技术的分布式水文模型已成为当今水文界研究的重点。从气象与水文水资源学科交叉的角度对分布式水文模型VIC模型与SWAT模型进行研究,并将其应用于白莲河流域,以此探讨该模型在中小流域的适用性。模拟结果表明,VIC模型与SWAT模型在白莲河流域率定期与检验期的模拟效果相差很小。SWAT模型的效率系数与相关系数略高一些,SWAT模型的模拟效果比较平均,每年相差不大;但VIC模型在1995年和1999年模拟效果明显好于其它年份,尤其在2002年,VIC模型模拟的洪峰与实测的相差较大,从而影响总体的效率系数偏低,而SWAT模型模拟的更接近实测值。研究结果表明两种模型对于我国中小流域的径流模拟具有一定的适用性.     

基于WebGIS三峡干流水质模拟平台研究

三峡蓄水成库后仍属于典型的河道型水库,其总体水流、水质运动特性符合一维水流水质运动规律。针对三峡库区总体水流、水质运动特性,采用一维水流水质模型对三峡库区水流和水质进行了模拟。以该模型为核心,利用Web Services技术开发并在互联网上发布了模型服务,在此基础上采用成熟的WebGIS和富客户端Flex等技术构建了适用于三峡库区的干流水质模拟平台;能够实现包括各计算断面流速、流量、水位以及污染物浓度时空过程在内的三峡库区干流流速场和浓度场的数值模拟。以库区干流清溪场至十里铺断面内的江段作为模拟实例,利用该平台模拟计算江段内水流和水质状况,并以水文水质同步观测数据对模拟结果进行验证,结果表明其具有较好的模拟效果;为三峡库区污染物总体输移扩散特性研究提供了有利工具,同时也为国家和地方政府进行库区水环境决策提供了技术支持