Modeling the population dynamics of cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) over a wide area in northern China

The cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is one of the most serious crop pests in northern China, calling for accurate prediction of pest outbreaks and strategies for pest control. A computer model is developed to simulate the population dynamics of H. armigera over a wide area in northern China. The area considered covers 12 provinces where serious outbreaks of H. armigera have been observed. In this model, pest development is driven by local ambient temperature, and adults migrate long distances between regions and select preferred hosts for oviposition within a region. Six types of host including cotton, wheat, corn, peanut, soybean and a single category composed of all other minor hosts are considered in this model. Survival rates of eggs and larvae are based on life-table data, and simulated as a function of host type, host phenology and temperature. The incidence of diapause depends on temperature and photoperiod experienced during the larval stage. Survival rate of non-diapause pupae is a nonlinear function of rainfall, and overwinter survival rate is a nonlinear function of temperature. Insecticide is applied when population density exceeds the economic threshold on a host crop within a region. Comparisons of model output with light-trap data indicate that our model reflects the pest population dynamics over a wide area, and could potentially be used for testing novel pest control strategies in northern China.     

Enhancing generic ecological model for short-term prediction of Southern North Sea algal dynamics with remote sensing images

Physically based numerical modelling follows from the basic understanding of the underlying mechanisms and is often represented by a set of (partial differential) equations. It is one of the main approaches in population dynamics modelling. The emphasis of the model introduced in this paper is on the simulation of short-term spatial and temporal dynamics of harmful algal bloom (HAB) events. Total suspended matter (TSM) concentration is one of the dominant factors for harmful algal bloom (HAB) prediction in North Sea. However, the modelling of suspended matter contains a high degree of uncertainty in this area. Therefore, this research aims to achieve a better estimation for the short-term prediction of harmful algal bloom development in both space and time by using spatially distributed TSM retrieved from remotely sensed images as physically based model inputs. In order to supply complete spatially covered datasets for the physically based model instrument: generic ecological model (GEM), this research retrieves TSM information from MERIS images by means of proper estimation techniques including biharmonic splines and self-learning cellular automata. A better estimation of HAB spatial pattern development is achieved by adding spatially distributed TSM data as inputs to original GEM model, and it proved that chlorophyll-a concentration in this area is very sensitive to TSM concentration.     

Influence of low and decreasing food levels on Daphnia-algal interactions: Numerical experiments with a new dynamic energy budget model

Based on numerical experiments with a new physiologically structured population model we demonstrate that predator physiology under low food and under starving conditions can have substantial implications for population dynamics in predator-prey interactions. We focused on Daphnia-algae interactions as model system and developed a new dynamic energy budget (DEB) model for individual daphnids. This model integrates the κ-rule approach common to net assimilation models into a net-production model, but uses a fixed allocation of net-productive energy in juveniles. The new DEB-model agrees well with the results of life history experiments with Daphnia. Compared to a pure κ-rule model the new allocation scheme leads to significant earlier maturation at low food levels and thus is in better agreement with the data. Incorporation of the new DEB-model into a physiologically structured population model using a box-car elevator technique revealed that the dynamics of Daphnia-algae interactions are highly sensitive to the assumptions on the energy allocation of juveniles under low food conditions. Additionally we show that also other energy allocation rules of our DEB-model concerning decreasing food levels and starving conditions at the individual level have strong implications for Daphnia-algae interactions at the population level. With increasing carrying capacity of algae a stable equilibrium with coexistence of Daphnia occurs and algae shifts to limit cycles. The amplitudes of the limit cycles increase with increasing percentage of sustainable weight loss. If a κ-rule energy allocation is applied to juveniles, the stable equilibrium occurs for a much narrower range of algal carrying capacities, the algal concentration at equilibrium is about 2 times larger, and the range of algae carrying capacities at which daphnids become extinct extends to higher carrying capacities than in the new DEB-model. Because predator-prey dynamics are very sensitive to predator physiology under low food and starving conditions, empirical constraints of predator physiology under these conditions are essential when comparing model results with observations in laboratory experiments or in the field.     

Analysis of the global warming dynamics from temperature time series

Global warming is the observed increase of the average temperature of the Earth. The primary cause of this phenomenon is the release of the greenhouse gases by burning of fossil fuels, land cleaning, agriculture, among others, leading to the increase of the so-called greenhouse effect. An approach to deal with this important problem is the time series analysis. In this regard, different techniques can be applied to evaluate the global warming dynamics. This kind of analysis allows one to make better predictions increasing our comprehension of the phenomenon. This article applies nonlinear tools to analyze temperature time series establishing state space reconstruction and prediction. Since noise contamination is unavoidable in data acquisition, it is important to employ robust techniques. The method of delay coordinates is employed for state space reconstruction and delay parameters are evaluated using the method of average mutual information and the method of false nearest neighbors. Afterwards, the simple nonlinear prediction method is employed to estimate temperatures of the future. Temperature time series from different places of the planet are used. Initially, the approach is verified considering known parts of the time series and afterwards, results are extrapolated for future values estimating temperature until 2028. Results show that these techniques are interesting to estimate temperature time history, presenting coherent estimations.     

油松叶绿体DNA间隔序列特点及系统学意义

对全国分布区12个天然油松种群进行取样,测定了叶绿体DNAtrnT-trnL、trnS-trnG、trnL-trnF基因间隔序列,分析了序列碱基组成特点及在松科系统分类中的意义.测序结果显示,3个片段碱基序列均富含A/T,长度依次为448bp、636bp和421bp,所测片段在种群水平上十分保守,没有发现具有种内鉴别意义的碱基变异.但此片段适合于松科属间和种间的系统学分析,运用PHYLIP软件构建松科植物的邻接系统树,支持松科分为两个亚科的分类系统,拓扑结构表明松属与银杉属的关系最近.由于叶绿体DNA序列长度适中,扩增和测序较为容易,适合作为研究松科植物系统进化较为理想的分子标记.图2表2参24     

监测水体重金属污染的分子生物标志物研究进展

水体重金属污染具有持久性、高度危害性和难治理性,如何快速、准确监测并对其进行科学评价,成为当今环境科学关心的热点问题。大量研究表明,水生生物体内某些生理指标的变化可以反映水体重金属的污染程度。综述了乙酰胆碱酯酶、抗氧化防御系统、腺苷三磷酸、DNA损伤以及金属硫蛋白等几种分子水平上的生物标志物监测重金属污染的原理、国内外研究进展以及应用现状。认为分子生物标志物具有特异性、敏感性等优势,可以较快指示水体重金属污染对生物体的影响,在实际应用中需注意各种干扰因素。在进行野外研究时,要注重混合重金属与多途径暴露下,分子生物标志物的变化规律。生物体之间差异性会导致标志物在同样暴露条件下产生不同的变化规律,需要加强＂离体＂标志物和＂标准化＂标志物的研究,确保监测结果的可靠性和可重复性。生物标志物较为敏感,容易受到外界环境及体内生理因素影响,可考虑综合运用多种生物标志物指示重金属污染。目前,有关重金属对水生生物毒性效应的研究较多,但重金属对生物体的致毒机理方面研究并不深入,这将是今后研究的重点问题之一。     

基于健康风险的土壤修复目标研究程序与方法——以多环芳烃污染土壤再利用工程为例

提出了基于人体健康风险的土壤修复目标的制定方法和程序,并以上海市某重大工程多环芳烃污染土壤处理后再利用工程为例,模拟了多环芳烃在处置场地上的多介质迁移途径及人体暴露场景。模拟结果显示,填埋场污染土壤苯并(a)芘(该污染物毒性因子高,毒性强,致癌风险相对较大)经口摄入和皮肤接触途径最大致癌暴露量分别为1.89×10-6和0.93×10-6mg.kg-1.d-1,人体最大致癌风险水平分别为1.38×10-5和6.79×10-6,超出了中国规定的单致癌污染物的可接受风险水平(≤10-6)。苯并(a)芘呼吸吸入途径最大致癌暴露量为7.79×10-10mg.m-3,人体最大致癌风险水平为6.86×10-10。基于场地的特征条件和参数,以保护人体健康为目的,确定了再利用作为填埋场中层覆土的土壤中5种多环芳烃污染物的修复目标限值(w,mg.kg-1)分别为:苯并(a)芘,0.994;二苯并(a,h)蒽,0.995;苯并(a)蒽,9.95;苯并(b)荧蒽,9.95;苯并(k)荧蒽,99.5。     

分子筛孔结构对CO_2吸附性能的影响

采用巨正则蒙特卡罗方法模拟了CO_2在FAU分子筛上的吸附情况,比较了不同CO_2逸度下,CO_2在分子筛模型上的吸附位、吸附量的变化,拟合了其吸附等温线。结果表明:在吸附饱和状态下,分子筛的孔结构越大,对CO_2的吸附量越大,对于比CO_2分子更小的微孔结构,吸附几乎不发生;在低逸度下,CO_2的吸附主要发生在小孔内,随着逸度的提高,CO_2的吸附量迅速上升;在高逸度下,吸附量的提高主要发生在大孔内;FAU分子筛吸附CO_2的过程符合Ⅰ型Langmuir吸附等温线,在高压下对CO_2的吸附能力远大于低压下的吸附能力。     

海积平原区某非正规垃圾填埋场地下水氨氮污染模拟研究

本研究结合天津市海积平原区水文地质条件,构建了某非正规垃圾填埋场地下水溶质运移模型,并将该模型用于预测分析垃圾填埋场地下水氨氮污染迁移规律.采用敏感性分析研究了渗透系数、孔隙度和弥散度等参数的变化对模拟结果的影响.模拟评价了地下水氨氮污染抽出处理效果.研究结果表明,氨氮污染羽在10年内最大迁移距离为648 m,污染面积达到368667 m~2,高浓度氨氮污染羽主要分布于南部浅层潜水含水层.抽出处理方案效果不佳,易导致氨氮污染羽的拖尾和反弹效应.本研究可为海积平原区地下水氨氮污染治理、修复提供理论参考和依据.     

Simulation of Reflected and Scattered Laser Radiation for Designing Laser Shields

This paper presents a computer simulation of reflected and scattered laser radiation for calculating the angle of laser shields performed with the Laser Shield Solver computer program. The authors describe a method of calculating the shield angle for laser shields which protect workers against reflected and scattered laser radiation and which are made from different materials. The main assumptions of the program, which calculates and simulates reflected laser radiation from any material and which can be used for designing shield angles, are presented. Calculations are compared with measurements of reflected laser radiation. The results for one type of laser and different materials which interacted with a laser beam showed that the Laser Shield Solver was an appropriate tool for designing laser shields and its simulations of reflected laser radiation distribution have practical use.