河道生态环境需水量的计算

从水污染防治的角度,生态环境需水量可以定义为在一定的污染负荷水平下,河流水质达到环境功能要求和相应的水质标准所需的最小流量。针对我国北方最突出的水污染问题,本文利用月保证率法来计算河道生态环境需水量,以保证河流基本的生态功能和水资源的永续利用。     

水文变异条件下的东江流域生态径流研究

东江流域的河川径流受气候变化和人类活动的双重影响产生了水文变异,河流生态系统适应了变异前的水文状态,变异后必然会给当地生态系统带来不同程度的影响。因此,论文运用多种检验方法并结合东江流域的实际情况对其水文变异做了系统的分析。在此基础上,采用逐月频率法计算该流域4水文站的生态径流量 (最小、适宜和最大生态径流),得出以下结论:①Tennant的检验表明论文的计算结果是合理的;②龙川、河源、岭下3站存在显著变异,变异后3站不满足河流适宜生态径流量的时间都出现在6月,今后应在该月适当增加调水。同时,可参照文中计算值,建立东江流域生态径流调度预警机制,为流域生态系统的健康和水资源的管理提供科学保障。     

鸭河口水库水体浮游植物预测研究

考虑浮游植物的增长和沉降等因素,采有质量平衡模型,选择合适的预测参数,对鸭河口水库水体浮游植物浓度进行了预测研究,揭示了本浮游植物浓度随时间变化规律,为鸭河口水库富营养化防治奠定基础。     

IDENTIFICATION OF MONTHLY TRENDS IN URBAN WATER USE1

ABSTRACT: Monthly water use for the period 1960–1984 for the Columbus, Ohio, metropolitan area is analyzed to identify differential monthly trends in growth of water use. By associating water use activities with the identified trend months, inferences may be made as to the possible underlying causes of the observed trend in overall water use. Three methods were found useful in determining monthly trends: 1) regression analysis on the monthly percentage of annual use, 2) regression analysis on the monthly water use data itself, and 3) analysis of the slope of the monthly water use regression line. Agreement between the three methods is strong, but each provides some insight not found in the others. All three should be used in drawing final conclusions. For the case study, usage in the Winter months January-April has grown considerably relative to the other months, while the Summer-Fall months of June, August, September, and October show a relative decline. A possible explanation for the trend is aging of the distribution system, with consequent general leakage and increased water main breakage caused by freeze/thaw conditions. More research needs to be carried out linking water use activities to particular months or groups of months.     

GENERATED MONTHLY STREAMFLOWS FOR THE MIDWESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT A critical examination of single gage site, monthly streamflow statistical characteristics for two southern Illinois rivers, an Oklahoma river and a Texas river was made using a digital computer at Northwestern University. High flow variability for the rivers was evident in that, for the rivers tested, 8 to 11 months had coefficients of variation in excess of unity. The gamma distribution was not as efficient as the normal distribution for fitting power or logarithmic transforms of the historical monthly flow data (i.e., F^1-0, F^0-5, F^0-25, Fa¹²⁵, F^0.085, and log F). No single transform to a normal distribution was adequate for all twelve monthly flows, since definite seasonal grouping patterns were found for the four rivers examined. The highly variable flow in the low-flow season(s) indicated much more skewness than was typical of the remainder of the year. For the low-flow seasons, the higher-root (smaller exponent) transforms were particularly useful. Flows were generated from a linear regression model of lag one utilizing two or more transforms for the twelve periods. The definite seasonal patterns found historically were reproduced quite well in the generated streamflows. The effect of a change in data transform from one season to the next was insignificant after one month. Thus the use of different transforms within the year did not bias the results from the linear regression model appreciably, but did help in reproducing the seasonal distribution pattern. The technique seems especially well suited for rivers with highly variable flows.     

上海气象参数与太阳活动和ENSO的关系

运用2进小波的分解与重构技术分析了太阳活动、厄尔尼诺—南方涛动(ENS0)与上海地区月降水量、月均气压和月均温度序列之间的可能关系。研究结果表明，在不同的时间尺度(频带)上太阳活动和ENS0对上海的月降水量、月均气压和月均温度有不同的影响；在某种程度上ENS0活动对上海月降水量和月均气温的影响强于太阳活动的影响。结果还清楚表明和证实了在不同频带上太阳活动与ENS0活动之间的密切联系。     

基于自然正交展开的神经网络长期预报模型

对月降水量的前期500hPa高度场、海温场相关预报因子进行E0F展开，并取其中与预报量相关程度较高的主成分，结合人工神经网络技术，建立了一种新的短期气候预测模型。将这种新的预报模型与同样根据这些预报因子建立的回归预报模型进行了对比分析。结果表明，这种新的短期气候预测模型由于集中了众多预报因子的预报信息，并有效地利用了神经网络方法的非线性映射能力，因此比传统预报方法的预报精度显著提高，并且稳定性好，具有很好的应用前景。     

月湖底泥疏浚后底栖动物群落的恢复及其与环境的关系

研究对月湖底泥疏浚后底栖动物群落动态进行逐月的周年调查,并分析了底栖动物密度、生物多样性与环境因子的关系,结果表明：疏浚导致大型底栖动物基本消失,现存量从疏浚前的（4387±885）ind·m-2降低至（80±21）ind·m-2。疏浚后,寡毛类成为受干扰系统恢复过程中的先锋种类,在春季（4月）和秋冬之际（11月）出现2个密度高峰,分别为（1010±230）ind·m-2和（1538±408）ind·m-2,而摇蚊幼虫在疏浚一年后的秋冬季密度达到高峰（2021±612）ind·m-2,二者均基本恢复到疏浚前的密度水平。种类组成与疏浚前相似,优势种类数较疏浚前多,7月份以前,以霍甫水丝蚓占绝对优势,7月份以后以长足摇蚊占绝对优势。生物多样性在秋冬季恢复到疏浚前水平。寡毛类、摇蚊幼虫的密度、生物多样性与湖水溶氧、透明度呈显著正相关,与水体营养水平（TN、TP、有机碎屑）呈显著负相关（P〈0.05）。分析认为疏浚后底栖动物群落的季节变化与动物的生命周期（繁殖和生长）密切相关,而营养水平不是限制动物种群密度分布的主要因子。从底栖动物群落的恢复情况来看,疏浚后的底质环境更有利于底栖动物群落的生存和底栖生态系统的重建。     

温度三区间理论评价气候变化对作物产量影响

传统平均温度法往往无法表征极端温度事件对作物产量的作用,导致气候变化对产量影响的评估结果与实际情况存在较大偏差.鉴于此,论文提出了温度三区间理论.该理论基于作物生长发育各阶段的生物量指标以及最终产量随温度变化呈现出三区间的响应关系,分别评价正常温度、极端低温以及极端高温对产量的影响.为了验证温度三区间理论的科学性和可行性,论文以黑龙江省玉米为例,通过构建包括三区间积温指标和降水量指标的统计模型来评价气候变化对玉米单产的影响,并将此结果和平均温度法相比较,研究发现温度三区间评价法更能客观全面地评价气候变化对作物产量的影响,为这方面的研究提供了新思路.     

上海市青浦区大气挥发性有机化合物的特征

在2012年11~12月和2014年5~10月对上海市青浦区大气中58个VOCs物种进行了连续监测.结果表明,青浦区VOCs总体浓度水平较低,烷烃是其中含量最高的物种,百分含量为41.64%,其次为芳香烃25.66%、烯烃15.21%、乙炔7.71%.总VOCs的月变化特征表现为11月最高,10月最低;日变化特征表现为明显的双峰分布.通过OH消耗速率和臭氧生成潜势(OFP)计算,评估了VOCs的化学反应活性.结果表明,上海市青浦区大气VOCs的化学反应活性较强,且与VOCs浓度具有良好的一致性.OH消耗速率贡献最大的物种是烯烃56.92%和芳香烃45.24%,OFP贡献最大的物种是烯烃29.19%和芳香烃40.82%;对臭氧生成贡献最大的关键活性物种是乙烯、异戊二烯、甲苯、间/对二甲苯及丙烯等物质.利用化学质量平衡(CMB)模型分析了VOCs的来源,结果显示,上海市青浦区大气中VOCs主要有6个来源,分别是汽车尾气排放、LPG泄漏、涂料和溶剂挥发、植物排放、生物质燃烧、工业排放,其贡献率分别为43%、5%、16%、3%、14%、7%.