京津冀地区“煤改电”对PM2.5污染的健康效益评估

为准确评估京津冀地区采暖期实施“煤改电”政策带来的健康效益,估算了京津冀地区各区县采暖期“煤改电”政策实施前后PM_2.5污染导致的过早死亡人数,并采用支付意愿法计算了相应的健康损失价值.结果表明,京津冀地区“煤改电”政策实施后带来了1 745人(95%CI:1 443～1 907)健康效益和23.78亿元(95%CI:14.50～30.63)经济效益.北京、天津及河北地区的健康效益分别为495人(95%CI:436～554)、 296人(95%CI:238～354)及954人(95%CI:693～1 076).经济效益分别为3.50亿元(95%CI:3.08～3.92)、 3.32亿元(95%CI:2.67～3.96)及16.96亿元(95%CI:8.75～22.75),分别占各地区GDP的0.01%、 0.02%及0.04%. COPD、 LC、 ALRI、 IHD、 STROKE减少的死亡人数分别为187人(95%CI:165～224)、 318人(95%CI:178～458)、 193人(95%CI:115～204)、 506人(95%CI:232～780)...     

The effects of seston food quality on planktonic food web patterns

In planktonic food webs, the conversion rate of plant material to herbivore biomass is determined by a variety of factors such as seston biochemical/elemental composition, phytoplankton cell morphology, and colony architecture. Despite the overwhelming heterogeneity characterizing the plant–animal interface, plankton population models usually misrepresent the food quality constraints imposed on zooplankton growth. In this study, we reformulate the zooplankton grazing term to include seston food quality effects on zooplankton assimilation efficiency and examine its ramifications on system stability. Using different phytoplankton parameterizations with regards to growth strategies, light requirements, sinking rates, and food quality, we examined the dynamics induced in planktonic systems under varying zooplankton mortality/fish predation, light conditions, nutrient availability, and detritus food quality levels. In general, our analysis suggests that high food quality tends to stabilize the planktonic systems, whereas unforced oscillations (limit cycles) emerge with lower seston food quality. For a given phytoplankton specification and resource availability, the amplitude of the plankton oscillations is primarily modulated from zooplankton mortality and secondarily from the nutritional quality of the alternative food source (i.e., detritus). When the phytoplankton community is parameterized as a cyanobacterium-like species, conditions of high nutrient availability combined with high zooplankton mortality led to phytoplankton biomass accumulation, whereas a diatom-like parameterization resulted in relatively low phytoplankton to zooplankton biomass ratios highlighting the notion that high phytoplankton food quality allows the zooplankton community to sustain relatively high biomass and to suppress phytoplankton biomass to low levels. During nutrient and light enrichment conditions, both phytoplankton and detritus food quality determine the extent of the limit cycle region, whereas high algal food quality increases system resilience by shifting the oscillatory region towards lower light attenuation levels. Detritus food quality seems to regulate the amplitude of the dynamic oscillations following enrichment, when algal food quality is low. These results highlight the profitability of the alternative food sources for the grazer as an important predictor for the dynamic behavior of primary producer–grazer interactions in nature.     

Insights from complete-incomplete brood sex-ratio disparity

An assertion deeply rooted in the ornithological literature holds that sex-specific mortality causes a sex ratio disparity (SRD) between complete and incomplete broods. Complete broods are thought to reflect the primary sex ratio before any bias introduced by developmental mortality. Contrary to this view, however, complete and incomplete broods should exhibit identical sex ratio distributions even when the sexes experience differential mortality, as shown in the classic paper of Fiala (Am Nat 115: 442–444, 1980). Therefore, in partially unsexed samples, primary sex ratio biases cannot be distinguished from biases caused by differential mortality. In addition, complete broods do not represent primary sex ratio more accurately than incomplete ones and might even be misleading. Despite Fiala’s prediction, SRD does occur in some empirical studies. We show that this pattern could arise if (1) primary sex ratio affects chick mortality rates independently of sex (direct effect), (2) primary sex ratio covaries with a variable that also affects mortality rate, or (3) sex differential mortality covaries with overall mortality rate (indirect effects). Direct effects may cause stronger SRD than indirect ones with a smaller and opposite bias in the overall sex ratio and could also lead to highly inconsistent covariate effects on brood sex ratios. These features may help differentiate direct from indirect effects. Most interestingly, differences in covariate effects between complete and incomplete broods imply that influential variables are missing from the analysis.     

Effects of age and sex ratios on offspring recruitment rates in translocated black rhinoceros

Success of animal translocations depends on improving postrelease demographic rates toward establishment and subsequent growth of released populations. Short‐term metrics for evaluating translocation success and its drivers, like postrelease survival and fecundity, are unlikely to represent longer‐term outcomes. We used information theory to investigate 25 years of data on black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis) translocations. We used the offspring recruitment rate (ORR) of translocated females—a metric integrating survival, fecundity, and offspring recruitment at sexual maturity—to detect determinants of success. Our unambiguously best model (AICω = 0.986) predicted that ORR increases with female age at release as a function of lower postrelease adult rhinoceros sex ratio (males:females). Delay of first postrelease reproduction and failure of some females to recruit any calves to sexual maturity most influenced the pattern of ORRs, and the leading causes of recruitment failure were postrelease female death (23% of all females) and failure to calve (24% of surviving females). We recommend translocating older females (≥6 years old) because they do not exhibit the reproductive delay and low ORRs of juveniles (<4 years old) or the higher rates of recruitment failure of juveniles and young adults (4–5.9 years old). Where translocation of juveniles is necessary, they should be released into female‐biased populations, where they have higher ORRs. Our study offers the unique advantage of a long‐term analysis across a large number of replicate populations—a science‐by‐management experiment as a proxy for a manipulative experiment, and a rare opportunity, particularly for a large, critically endangered taxon such as the black rhinoceros. Our findings differ from previous recommendations, reinforce the importance of long‐term data sets and comprehensive metrics of translocation success, and suggest attention be shifted from ecological to social constraints on population growth and species recovery, particularly when translocating species with polygynous breeding systems.     

The Toad-Headed Agama Phrynocephalus guttatus (Reptilia: Agamidae): The Correlates of Survival in a Translocated Population in the Southwestern Kalmyk Republic

Observations of a translocated population of toad-headed agamas (Phrynocephalus guttatus) in the south of the Kalmyk Republic (1998–2001) have shown that seasonal differences in animal survival are manifested only in juveniles and the survival rate of juveniles is higher than that of adult individuals. A significant correlation between survival rate and sex is also characteristic only of juveniles: survival rate is higher in females than in males. In adult males, survival positively correlates with the level of activity; in juvenile males, with body size. In adult females, survival inversely correlates with body size and weight.     

Incorporating Collateral Data in Conservation Biology

Abstract:  Conservation biologists often need to set ecological modeling assumptions or estimate parameters from sparse data. In some cases this problem can be addressed by incorporating data from closely related species or from the same species at different sites (i.e., collateral data). Currently no structured methods exist for incorporating such information. An analogous problem in Actuarial science is to set premium rates in situations with little direct data on claim frequency or size. The rates are estimated using actuarial credibility theory, which incorporates collateral data with the direct data. actuarial credibility theory combined with the actuarial control cycle financial management process also provides an adaptive mechanism for updating assumptions. This theory may have some utility for ecologists wanting to incorporate collateral data in an adaptive management framework, a companion to approaches such as Bayesian updating. We describe the historical development of actuarial credibility theory from early ad hoc methods to empirical Bayes approaches. We explore some of the theory's strengths, such as relative simple formulae for incorporation collateral data, and we explore some of the theory's weaknesses, such as the use of the best linear approximation to the Bayes estimate. We illustrate potential applications of the theory using an example on the mortality rate of the Powerful Owl (  Ninox strenua ).     

Road traffic mortality in the Slovak Republic in 1996–2014

Objective: Road traffic mortality takes an enormous toll in every society. Transport safety interventions play a crucial role in improving the situation. In the period 1996–2014 several road safety measures, including a complex new road traffic law in 2009, were implemented in the Slovak Republic, introducing stricter conditions for road users.

The aim of this study is to describe and analyze the trends in road user mortality in the Slovak Republic in individual age groups by sex during the study period 1996–2014.

Methods: Data on overall mortality in the Slovak Republic for the period 1996–2014 were obtained from the Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic. Mortality rates were age-adjusted to the European standard population. Joinpoint regression was used to assess the statistical significance of change in time trends of calculated standardized mortality rates.

Results: Mortality rates of all types of road users as well as all age groups and both sexes in the Slovak Republic in the period 1996–2014 are decreasing. The male : female ratio decreased from 4:1 in 1996 to 2:1 in 2014. Motor vehicle users (other than motorcyclists) and pedestrians have the highest mortality rates among road user groups. Both of these groups show a significant decline in mortality rates over the study period. Within the age groups, people age 65 years and over have the highest mortality rates, followed by the age groups 25–64 and 15–24 years old.

Joinpoint regression confirmed a steady, significant decline in all mortality rates over the study period. A statistically significant decrease in mortality rates in the last years of the study period was observed in the age group 25–64 and in male motorcycle users.

Assessing the impact of the 2009 road traffic law, a drop was observed in the average standardized mortality rate of all road traffic users from 14.56 per 100,000 person years in the period 1996–2008 to 7.69 per 100,000 person years in the period 2009–2014. A similar drop in the average standardized mortality rate was observed in all individual road user groups.

Conclusions: The implementation of the new traffic regulations may have contributed significantly to the observed decrease in mortality rates of road users in the Slovak Republic. A significant decrease in mortality was observed in all population groups and in all groups of road users. The introduction of a new comprehensive road traffic law may have expedited the decrease of road fatalities, especially in the age group 25–64 years old. This type of evidence-based epidemiology data can be used for improved targeting of future public health measures for road traffic injury prevention.     

Assessment of Management to Mitigate Anthropogenic Effects on Large Whales

United States and Canadian governments have responded to legal requirements to reduce human‐induced whale mortality via vessel strikes and entanglement in fishing gear by implementing a suite of regulatory actions. We analyzed the spatial and temporal patterns of mortality of large whales in the Northwest Atlantic (23.5°N to 48.0°N), 1970 through 2009, in the context of management changes. We used a multinomial logistic model fitted by maximum likelihood to detect trends in cause‐specific mortalities with time. We compared the number of human‐caused mortalities with U.S. federally established levels of potential biological removal (i.e., species‐specific sustainable human‐caused mortality). From 1970 through 2009, 1762 mortalities (all known) and serious injuries (likely fatal) involved 8 species of large whales. We determined cause of death for 43% of all mortalities; of those, 67% (502) resulted from human interactions. Entanglement in fishing gear was the primary cause of death across all species (n = 323), followed by natural causes (n = 248) and vessel strikes (n = 171). Established sustainable levels of mortality were consistently exceeded in 2 species by up to 650%. Probabilities of entanglement and vessel‐strike mortality increased significantly from 1990 through 2009. There was no significant change in the local intensity of all or vessel‐strike mortalities before and after 2003, the year after which numerous mitigation efforts were enacted. So far, regulatory efforts have not reduced the lethal effects of human activities to large whales on a population‐range basis, although we do not exclude the possibility of success of targeted measures for specific local habitats that were not within the resolution of our analyses. It is unclear how shortfalls in management design or compliance relate to our findings. Analyses such as the one we conducted are crucial in critically evaluating wildlife‐management decisions. The results of these analyses can provide managers with direction for modifying regulated measures and can be applied globally to mortality‐driven conservation issues. Evaluación del Manejo para Mitigar Efectos Antropogénicos sobre Ballenas Mayores     

Amphibian Encounter Rates on Roads with Different Amounts of Traffic and Urbanization

Abstract: Although amphibians have relatively high rates of road mortality in urban areas, the conditions under which traffic threatens the survival of local amphibian populations remain unclear. In the Sandhills region of North Carolina (U.S.A.), we counted living and dead amphibians along two transects (total length 165 km) established on roads in areas with varying degrees of urbanization. We found 2665 individuals of 15 species, and amphibian encounter rates declined sharply as traffic and urban development increased. Regression‐tree models indicated that 35 amphibians/100 km occurred on roads with <535 vehicles/day, whereas the encounter rate decreased to only 2 amphibians/100 km on roads with >2048 vehicles/day. Although mortality rate peaked at higher traffic levels (47% dead on roads with >5200 vehicles/day), the number of dead amphibians was highest at low levels of traffic. This suggests that areas where amphibian mortality is concentrated may actually contain the largest populations remaining on a given road transect.     

The social and spatial distribution of temperature-related health impacts from urban heat island reduction policies

Cities are developing innovative strategies to combat climate change but there remains little knowledge of the winners and losers from climate-adaptive land use planning and design. We examine the distribution of health benefits associated with land use policies designed to increase vegetation and surface reflectivity in three US metropolitan areas: Atlanta, GA, Philadelphia, PA, and Phoenix, AZ. Projections of population and land cover at the census tract scale were combined with climate models for the year 2050 at 4 km × 4 km resolution to produce future summer temperatures which were input into a comparative risk assessment framework for the temperature-mortality relationship. The findings suggest disparities in the effectiveness of urban heat management strategies by age, income, and race. We conclude that, to be most protective of human health, urban heat management must prioritize areas of greatest population vulnerability.