BP神经网络预警在旅游安全预警信息系统中的应用

将BP神经网络预警技术应用于旅游安全预警信息系统的开发实践，研究建立了一个基于BP神经网络的旅游安全预警模型。该模型有4个子系统构成，即预警知识提取子系统、预警信息库、报警系统和人机互动设备，分析总结了包含旅游地灾害频度、出游设施安全度和旅游地区域安全度三大类10个子因子为内容的旅游安全预警影响因素。在旅游安全预警的影响因素和安全预警的报警判别模式的基础上，进行了旅游安全预警应用的实验设计。实验结果显示，该模型应用效果良好。     

旅游目的地灾害事件的影响机理研究

认清旅游灾害事件的影响机理是进行旅游灾害管理的基础。在灾害背景下,旅游目的地受灾害事件影响表现为旅游客流的减少,进而导致旅游经济链条的断裂。游客减少的根本原因是由于目的地灾害事件信息影响了潜在旅游者对目的地的形象感知,从而决定了潜在旅游者到目的地旅行的行为意向强度,进而影响到目的地的旅游流强度。     

The 2001 National Household Travel Survey: a look into the travel patterns of older Americans

INTRODUCTION: The main objective of this paper is to highlight travel patterns of older adults living in the United States as depicted in the 2001 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS). The NHTS is a national data collection program sponsored by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics and the Federal Highway Administration. It is the first national comprehensive household survey of both daily and long-distance travel, allowing for analysis of the full continuum of personal travel by Americans. To better understand the transportation needs of older Americans, it is useful to examine how travel patterns differ across age groups. The intent is to present basic travel characteristics of older adults (age 65+) and allow for comparisons with younger adults (ages 19-64). Travel-related characteristics of older adults in the United States: Results of the 2001 survey showed that older Americans travel extensively and rely on personal vehicles as heavily as their younger counterparts. Older Americans conduct 89% of their travel in personal vehicles. CHARACTERISTICS OF DAILY TRIPS TAKEN BY OLDER ADULTS: Older adults tend to be less mobile in that they take fewer trips, travel shorter distances, and have shorter travel times. This pattern is even more pronounced among older women. They are also more likely to suffer from self-reported medical conditions that further limit their travel. Characteristics of long-distance travel by older adults: Older men and women take long-distance trips at about the same rates and show a strong preference for using personal vehicles. And, while men and women take an equal percentage of their trips by air, older women show a strong preference for bus travel. CONCLUSIONS: Although older Americans travel extensively, they are less mobile than their younger counterparts. This pattern is more pronounced among older women and among those with self-reported medical conditions that affect their ability to travel outside their home. Older women consistently take the least number of trips per day, have the lowest driving rates, travel the shortest distances, and are more likely to report medical conditions that limit their travel. For men and women who have to give up driving, alternative means of transportation becomes a necessity. Yet, use of alternative transportation is relatively low; excluding personal vehicle and walking, all other means of transportation account for about 2% of daily travel. Further, of those with medical conditions that affect their travel, only about 12% use special transportation services such as dial-a-ride.     

Measures of speeding from a GPS-based travel behavior survey

Objective: Lacking information about actual driving speed on most roads in the Minneapolis–St. Paul region, we determine car speeds using observations from a Global Positioning System (GPS)-based travel survey. Speed of travel determines the likelihood and consequences of collisions. We identify the road segments where speeding occurs. This article then analyzes the relationship between link length, traveler characteristics, and speeding using GPS data collected from 152 individuals over a 7-day period as part of the Minneapolis–St. Paul Travel Behavior Inventory.

Methods: To investigate the relationship, we employed an algorithm and process to accurately match the GPS data with geographic information system (GIS) databases. Comparing actual travel speed from GPS data with posted speed limits, we measure where and when speeding occurs and by whom. We posit that link length and demographics shape the decision to speed.

Results: Speeding is widespread under both high speed limits (e.g., 60?mph [97?km/h]) and low speed limits (less than 25?mph [40?km/h]); in contrast, speeding is less common at 30–35?mph (48–56?km/h). The results suggest that driving patterns depend on the road type. We also find that when there are many intersections, the average link speed (and speeding) drops. Long links are conducive to speeding. Younger drivers and more educated drivers also speed more, and speeding occurs more often in the evening.

Conclusions: Road design and link length (or its converse, frequency of intersections) affect the likelihood of speeding. Use of increasingly available GPS data allows more systematic empirical analysis of designs and topologies that are conducive to road safety.     

Long-range transport potential of semivolatile organic chemicals in coupled air-water systems

Ongoing deliberations on the regulation of semivolatile organic chemicals require the assessment of chemical transport in atmospheric and marine systems. The characteristic travel distance was proposed as a measure for the transport potential in air and water. However, the existing definition treats the transport processes separately. It is shown that combined transport in coupled air-ocean systems can accelerate the overall transport into remote regions. Concentration ratios in air and water change with distance from sources depending on the initial concentration ratio and on the difference between the transport velocities. A measure is suggested facilitating the chemical screening with respect to transport potentials in such air-ocean systems. A case study for alpha and gamma-hexachlorocyclohexane shows that the suggested measure qualitatively reveals the transport potentials of these chemicals and exemplifies possible concentration patterns.     

旅游规划中存在的问题及解决对策研究

改革开放以来,随着国际旅游的蓬勃发展,国内旅游业一日千里.旅游产业的繁荣带来了一浪高于一浪的旅游规划热潮,但这只是量上的表面繁荣,由于旅游规划发展中固有的政策制度、技术手段、经营管理等一系列的问题,使得我国许多旅游规划的质量低劣.因此,必须根据旅游规划发展的内在规律,探讨解决这些问题的具体对策.     

新冠肺炎疫情期间我国人群交通出行行为分析

为了解我国新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19,简称“新冠肺炎”）疫情期间人群出行频次及交通方式,调查收集了2020年2月25日—3月14日我国31个省（自治区、直辖市）8 330名居民疫情期间的出行频次及交通方式等信息,并分析了其影响因素;对我国31个省（自治区、直辖市）按疫情严重程度进行等级划分,分析不同疫情等级下人群交通出行方式的差异,并与非疫情期间进行对比.结果表明:①新冠肺炎疫情期间调查人群中有75.1%的人有出行行为,其中,5.5%的人一天多次外出,17.6%的人每周出行频次不到一次.出行过程中乘坐公共交通和出租车这两类感染风险较高的交通工具的人数占比分别为6.3%和4.0%.②新冠肺炎疫情期间,我国居民的出行频次和交通方式可能受性别、年龄、城乡、片区等人口统计学变量以及当地或附近疑似/确诊病例情况的影响,还可能与所在省份疫情严重程度有关.西藏自治区、青海省等地区人群出行频次及交通方式受疫情影响变化相对较小,湖北省居民出行频次及交通方式与非疫情期间相比变化最大.③新冠肺炎疫情期间,我国成人居民选择步行和小轿车（出租车和私家车）出行的人数占比远高于非疫情期间,而选择公共交通和自行车或电动车等交通方式的人数占比与非疫情期间相比有所降低.研究发现,新冠肺炎疫情极大地改变了我国人群出行频次及交通方式.      

Analyzing the relationships between travel mode indicators and the number of passenger transport fatalities at the city level

Objective: A number of efforts have been conducted on travel behavior and transport fatalities at the neighborhood or street level, and they have identified different factors such as roadway characteristics, personal indicators, and design indicators related to transport safety. However, only a limited number of studies have considered the relationship between travel behavior indicators and the number of transport fatalities at the city level. Therefore, this study explores this relationship and how to fill the mentioned gap in current knowledge.

Method: A generalized linear model (GLM) estimates the relationships between different travel mode indicators (e.g., length of motorway per inhabitants, number of motorcycles per inhabitant, percentage of daily trips on foot and by bicycle, percentage of daily trips by public transport) and the number of passenger transport fatalities. Because this city-level model is developed using data sets from different cities all over the world, the impacts of gross domestic product (GDP) are also included in the model.

Conclusions: Overall, the results imply that the percentage of daily trips by public transport, the percentage of daily trips on foot and by bicycle, and the GDP per inhabitant have negative relationships with the number of passenger transport fatalities, whereas motorway length and the number of motorcycles have positive relationships with the number of passenger transport fatalities.     

COMPUTER SIMULATION OF RECREATIONAL BOATING ACTIVITIES1

ABSTRACT This paper is concerned with the portion of harbor improvement planning which identifies the refuge and transient service needs at points along Lake Michigan. The travel behavior model developed to predict this use is sensitive to five criteria: boater characteristics which influence travel behavior; entry rates into the Lake from each access site; site characteristics; weather conditions; and planning parameters. The information provided by this computer model includes: the number of boaters demanding a given access point at a given time; the length of stay at that point; the probability of travel to specific access sites in given amounts of time; and those facilities used during a specified time period. The simulation modelling boat movement consists of two parts; a traffic generation routine and an activity simulation. The former schedules the entry of boats into the Lake from each site and the latter establishes the probabilistic movement of boats on the Lake. This simulation of interport movements and port activities enables the planner to investigate some impacts of alternative small boat harbor development plans.     

Neighborhood density and travel mode: new survey findings for high densities

At high densities, land uses get close enough to each other to support walk, bike, and transit modes above 60% of total trips. The San Francisco Bay Area census was used to define five density levels: rural, exurban, suburban, central city, and urban core. The urban core definition, over 50 persons per neighborhood acre, is much denser than in other research. The California Household Transportation Survey supplied new data on block group area, population, trip stages, trip distances, trip time, and travel mode by density. The National Household Transportation Survey supplied block group population, density, travel mode, and income data. Both sources show a strong nonlinear relationship going from rural to urban core: auto miles and trips decrease as walk and transit miles and trips increase. With density, people travel fewer miles and spend less time traveling. High-income households in dense areas travel far fewer miles than those living at higher densities. With sufficient density, complementary features play a role in furthering mode shift. For planning purposes, the need for parking greatly declines. The findings are a basis for similar research elsewhere on high densities and complementary features.