灰色预测法在南宁市可持续发展趋势分析中的应用

本文运用灰色系统理论 ,建立灰色预测模型 ,对南宁市社会、经济及生态环境发展趋势进行了分析 ,并针对南宁市发展中的不合理状况 ,提出相应的调控对策。     

论地质灾害防治对策及其系统决策

本文在讨论地质灾害基本属性的基础上,提出了地质灾害防治的基本对策,并基于多目标决策特点,构造了三类地质灾害防治决策最优化模型。     

MULTIPLE CRITERIA ANALYSIS FOR WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT IN THE NITRA BASIN1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents the implementation of one element of a decision support system (DSS) for regional water quality management, applied to the Nitra River Basin in Slovakia. A model-based, aspiration-led methodology for multicriteria decision support has been used for the study. Several reusable, modular software tools have been developed and implemented: a problem-specific generator to produce the core part of the mathematical programming model, tools for the generation and interactive modification of multicriteria problems, and a solver for the resulting mixed-integer optimization problem. Provided in the paper are the following: a complete formulation of the mathematical model (including the imbedded water quality model), a summary of the aspiration-reservation-led multiple criteria optimization approach applied to decision support, and an overview of results that illustrate the applied approach and provide some interesting insights to the case study.     

花江峡谷石漠化土地生态重建及其启示

尽管西南岩溶地区石漠化趋势严重,但真正做到生态、经济、社会三效益统一的岩溶石漠化生态重建模式的实践工作却做得很少。且对于这些实践活动还缺乏理论的总结和思考。花江峡谷顶坛片区,充分利用当地的适生植物资源和干热资源优势在石漠化土地上种植花椒、砂仁等喜热耐旱的经济作物,在恢复和治理生态的前提下成功调整了农业内部结构,形成以花椒规模种植为核心心的特色产业,利用雨水、坡面水、岩溶裂隙水,实行参与式社区管理,使环境、经济与社区文化得以可持续发展。“顶坛”模式是充分利用岩溶环境资源优势,高山地保护于特色农业开发之中的一个成功例子。它启示我们,岩溶石漠化土地恢复重建必须重新认识岩溶环境优势。因地制宜,对过去侧重于水土保持的传统治理模式进行创新。     

区域生态环境评价的灰色关联投影模型

区域生态环境评价是实现全面环境管理，协调区域经济发展与生态环境保护．实现区域可持续发展的重要手段。由于评价所涉及的地域复杂性和因素多样性，许多评价方法和体系都处于不断探索和发展之中。区域生态环境系统是一个灰色系统，包括了自然、经济和社会等方面具有信息不确知性和不完全性的因素。基于灰色系统理论和矢量投影原理，建立了区域生态环境评价的灰色关联投影模型。该模型将评价样本及各级质量标准视为矢量．分别向同一矢量(理想样本)进行投影。根据投影值的大小，确定样本所属的生态环境质量级别及样本间的优劣排序。以巢湖流域为个案，在建立生态环境评价指标体系和标准的基础上，运用所建模型对其生态环境质量现状进行了评价，结果与实际情况相吻合。即巢湖流域总体以及分区合肥市、六安市的生态环境质量为4级，分区巢湖市为5级。研究表明，灰色关联投影模型对于多指标的区域生态环境质量评价是科学的、有效的，具有一定的推广和实用价值。     

两种掺气水流的计算模型比较

在污水压力输送管道中，污水中气体的存在会影响液体的流动，以污水管中的气、液相流为研究对象，运用集中空穴模型（气泡离散分布模型）和均匀分布模型两种计算方法，来研究停泵水锤过程的压力和流速的变化趋势，实例计算结果表，在设有止回阀的水锤现象中，利用离散分布模型所得的最高水位要比利用均匀分布模型的计算值高，在不设止回阀的水锤现象中，两者的结构基本保持一致。均匀分布模型假定气体在水中呈均匀分布，因此在计算断面上的气体量变化不如离散分布模型来得剧烈，其水位正峰值比离散分布模型低，负峰值比离散分布模型高。     

基于单体对象的城市区域火灾风险评价方法研究

从分析城市区域内单体对象自身的致灾因素及其制约灭火抢险救援力量发挥的环节入手,基于指数法和层次分析法建立了单体对象火灾风险评价指标体系.以单体对象火灾风险向量为基础,基于线性加权模型构建了一种新的区域火灾风险评价计算模型,并以树形结构表征了区域火灾风险评价结构.试点地区实例表明,该方法能够有效地评价城市区域火灾风险.     

Photochemical oxidation of reduced sulfur compounds in an urban location based on short time monitoring data

This study examines the oxidation of reduced sulfur compounds (RSCs) in urban ambient air. The photochemical conversions of RSC (such as DMS, CS₂, H₂S, DMDS, and CH₃SH) to a further oxidized form (e.g., SO₂, MSA, and H₂SO₄) were assessed using a photochemical box model. For our model simulation of RSC oxidation, measurements were taken at an urban monitoring station in Seoul, Korea (37.6° N, 127° E) during three separate time periods (e.g., Sept. 17–18, Oct. 23, and Oct. 27–28, 2003). The results indicate that DMS and H₂S were the dominant RSCs with concentrations of 370 ± 140 and 110 ± 60 pptv, respectively. The photochemical conversion of DMDS to SO₂ was found to occur more efficiently than other RSCs. The overall results of our study suggest that photochemical conversion of RSCs accounted for less than 15% of the observed SO₂ during the measurement period. The SO₂ production from DMS oxidation (mainly by the reaction with OH) was found to be affected primarily by the abstraction channel due to high NO_x levels during the experimental conditions.     

Modelling the migration of contaminants through variably saturated dual-porosity, dual-permeability chalk

In the Hesbaye region in Belgium, tracer tests performed in variably saturated fissured chalk rocks presented very contrasting results in terms of transit times, according to artificially controlled water recharge conditions prevailing during the experiments. Under intense recharge conditions, tracers migrated across the partially or fully saturated fissure network, at high velocity in accordance with the high hydraulic conductivity and low effective porosity (fracture porosity). At the same time, a portion of the tracer was temporarily retarded in the almost immobile water located in the matrix. Under natural infiltration conditions, the fissure network remained inactive. Tracers migrated downward through the matrix, at low velocity in relation with the low hydraulic conductivity and the large porosity of the matrix. Based on these observations, Brouyère et al. (2004a) [Brouyère, S., Dassargues, A., Hallet, V., 2004a. Migration of contaminants through the unsaturated zone overlying the Hesbaye chalky aquifer in Belgium: a field investigation, J. Contam. Hydrol., 72 (1-4), 135-164, doi: 10.1016/j.conhyd.2003.10.009] proposed a conceptual model in order to explain the migration of solutes in variably saturated, dual-porosity, dual-permeability chalk. Here, mathematical and numerical modelling of tracer and contaminant migration in variably saturated fissured chalk is presented, considering the aforementioned conceptual model. A new mathematical formulation is proposed to represent the unsaturated properties of the fissured chalk in a more dynamic and appropriate way. At the same time, the rock water content is partitioned between mobile and immobile water phases, as a function of the water saturation of the chalk rock. The groundwater flow and contaminant transport in the variably saturated chalk is solved using the control volume finite element method. Modelling the field tracer experiments performed in the variably saturated chalk shows the adequacy and usefulness of the new conceptual, mathematical and numerical model.     

Dip-angle influence on areal DNAPL recovery by co-solvent flooding with and without pre-flooding

A two-dimensional (2D) laboratory model was used to study effects of gravity on areal recovery of a representative dense non-aqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) contaminant by an alcohol pre-flood and co-solvent flood in dipping aquifers. Recent studies have demonstrated that injection of alcohol and co-solvent solutions can be used to reduce in-situ the density of DNAPL globules and displace the contaminant from the source zone. However, contact with aqueous alcohol reduces interfacial tension and causes DNAPL swelling, thus facilitating risk of uncontrolled downward DNAPL migration. The 2D laboratory model was operated with constant background gradient flow and a DNAPL spill was simulated using tetrachloroethene (PCE). The spill was dispersed to a trapped, immobile PCE saturation by a water flood. Areal PCE recovery was studied using a double-triangle well pattern to simulate a remediation scheme consisting of an alcohol pre-flood using aqueous isobutanol ( approximately 10% vol.) followed by a co-solvent flood using a solution of ethylene glycol (65%) and 1-propanol (35%). Experiments were conducted with the 2D model oriented in the horizontal plane and compared to experiments at the 15 degrees and 30 degrees dip-angle orientations. Injection was applied either in the downward or upward direction of flow. Experimental results were compared to theoretical predictions for flood front stability and used to evaluate effects of gravity on areal PCE recovery. Sensitivity experiments were performed to evaluate effects of the alcohol pre-flood on PCE areal recovery. For experiments conducted with the alcohol pre-flood and the 2D model oriented in the horizontal plane, results indicate that 89-93% of source zone PCE was recovered. With injection oriented downward, results indicate that areal PCE recovery was 70-77% for a 15 degrees dip angle and 57-59% for a 30 degrees dip angle. With injection oriented upward, results indicate that areal PCE recovery was 57-60% at the 30 degrees dip angle, which was similar to PCE recovery for injection in the downward flow direction. Lower areal PCE recovery at greater dip angles in either direction of flow was attributed to DNAPL swelling and migration, flood front instabilities and bypassing of the displaced fluid past the extraction wells during the alcohol pre-flood. Additional results demonstrate that the use of an alcohol pre-flood can be beneficial in improving DNAPL recovery in the horizontal orientation, but pre-flooding may reduce areal recovery efficiency in dip-angle orientations. This study also demonstrates the use of theoretical perturbation (fingering) analysis in predicting NAPL recovery efficiency for flooding processes in remediating aquifers with dip angles.