湖库富营养化的改进型模糊综合评价方法研究

针对水体富营养化评价系统的非线性、模糊综合评价法过程中权重赋予的主观随意性和隶属函数的不准确性等特点,对传统模糊综合评价法进行了改进,并据此对我国24个代表性湖库的富营养化程度进行了评价.其中以SPSS16.0和Yaaph软件为载体,采用层次分析法和主成分分析法相结合来确定选取因子的权重.根据确定的评价标准作自然对数变换使之线性化,并结合由基础数据统计分布情况,生成各评价因子隶属于各营养等级的对数形式的降半梯形隶属函数,进而得到各湖库的确定度,最后依据最大确定度得到湖库富营养化级别.该法所得结果与湖库实际富营养化状况以及现有多种评价方法的结果的对比表明,该改进方法的评价结果真实、准确、计算简单,具有可行性.     

湖北鄂州和仙桃两地农民集中居住前后福利测度与变化的实证研究

在阿马蒂亚森的可行能力框架理论下构建农民福利评价指标体系,以湖北鄂州和仙桃两地为例,运用模糊评价法测算农民集中居住前后的福利变化。结果表明,农民集中居住后福利水平有所下降,鄂州和仙桃农户福利水平模糊评价值分别由0.455和0.442下降到0.373和0.366;从功能性活动看,农户的社会资源、住房条件和居住环境均有改善,但家庭经济状况、权益保障和心理情感则有不同程度恶化,其中家庭经济状况和权益保障这2项功能的福利水平变化最大,是造成农民集中居住后农民福利水平下降的主要原因。从转换因素看,农民受教育程度、被抚养人口比例和地区差异对农民集中居住前后福利变化均有影响。     

Comprehensive health condition assessment on partial sewers in a southern Chinese city based on fuzzy mathematic methods

A self-developed sewer health assessment system using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and analytical hierarchy process was applied to give a comprehensive health condition evaluation on part of the local sewers in a southern Chinese city based on the sewer video data collected by a sewer inspection closed circuit television （CCTV） robot. Aside from the overall condition evaluation, the structure, function, and stability status of the sewer were also analyzed using the method. A comprehensive index H was proposed to give the overall health condition of pipes with different defects, and Ht, Hs, and If were used to quantify the defects affecting the tightness, stability, and function of the pipe, respectively. Results show that 48% of the inspected pipes were in good condition （0〈H〈0.25）, and about 33% of the sewer pipes analyzed were categorized to be at severe or urgent condition levels （H 〉 0.5）, although most of the pipes were installed only within five years. Frequent sedimentation affects the function of the sewer, and deformation and joint damage affect the structure of the sewer.     

Optimizing the design of storage facilities through the application of ISD and QRA

Four strategies can be used to achieve safety in chemical processes: inherent, passive, active and procedural. However, the strategy that offers the best results is the inherent safety approach, especially if it is applied during the initial stages of a project. Inherently Safer Design (ISD) permanently eliminates or reduces hazards, and thus avoids or diminishes the consequences of incidents. ISD can be applied using four strategies: substitution, minimization, moderation and simplification. In this paper, we propose a methodology that combines ISD strategies with Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) to optimize the design of storage installations. As 17% of major accidents in the chemical industry occur during the storage process and cause significant losses, it is essential to improve safety in such installations. The proposed method applies QRA to estimate the risk associated with a specific design. The design can then be compared to others to determine which is inherently safer. The risk analysis may incorporate complex phenomena such as the domino effect and possible impacts on vulnerable material and human elements. The methodology was applied to the San Juanico tragedy that occurred in Mexico in 1984.     

不同地震序列类型地震的特征性质研究

收集整理了1993年以来的地震资料,建立M5地震和M6地震两个样本组,选取发震断层、震源复杂性、视应力3个参数,使用模糊等价关系的聚类分析方法对地震进行分类,把具有相同性质的地震归为同一类,研究孤立型、主余型、多震型地震的某些特征性质。结果表明:1孤立型地震性质:震源错动方式简单,应力降高或很高,视应力低或很低,震源区介质非均匀程度低;2多震型地震性质:对于走滑断层地震,震源错动方式复杂,应力降低或很低,视应力偏高或很高,震源区介质非均匀程度较高。     

优化、RSA和GLUE方法在非线性环境模型参数识别中的比较

参数识别是数学模型应用的前提,本文对非线性环境模型常用的3种参数识别方法进行了比较分析.优化方法是出现最早、应用最广泛的参数识别方法之一.但在观测误差存在的情况下,采用优化方法识别的最优参数进行模型预测,存在很大的决策风险.考虑到这种不足,RSA方法和GLUE方法摒弃了识别单一最优参数的传统思维,而把识别参数扩大到多点组成的参数集.RSA方法与GLUE方法不同的是,RSA方法把可行的参数点看成是同等接受的,而GLUE方法则根据模拟值与实测值的差别,确定其似然度,代表参数的可信度水平.除参数识别以外,RSA方法和GLUE方法也是全局灵敏度分析的重要工具.     

基于模糊数学和灰色理论的城市生态环境竞争力评价

在综合分析了国内外有关城市竞争力理论研究的基础上,对城市生态环境竞争力的概念和内涵进行了界定,构建了面向生态环境竞争力的评价体系,并以山东省17城市为例,采用灰色系统理论确定各指标的权重,利用模糊综合评价法对各市进行综合评价,研究结果表明,生态环境竞争力排名前三的地市为临沂(0.1894)、日照(0.1705)和烟台(0.1676),而德州(0.1191)、济南(0.1232)、枣庄(0.1274)、滨州(0.1285)和淄博(0.1289)表现相对较差,其他地市处于中游水平.分别从资源禀赋竞争力、污染物减量排放竞争力、环境治理竞争力和能耗竞争力4个子维度对典型城市进行分析,指出了存在的问题,并给出了相应的对策建议.     

Mechanistic aspects of the thermal formation of halogenated organic compounds including polychlorinated dibenzo‐p‐dioxins. Part V†: Hypotheses and summary

The hypotheses on the de novo syntheses of polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) and polychlorinated dibenzo‐p‐dioxins (PCDDs), based on known literature, are presented. Polychlorinated benzenes and polychlorinated phenols are probably key intermediates.

In the present article, hypotheses that may account for the presence of polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) and dibenzo‐p‐dioxins (PCDDs) in the effluents from municipal and industrial incinerators are put forward. These hypotheses are based on the previously surveyed literature (Ref. 203–206) and experimental results on laboratory scale and thermodynamic calculations are considered. The interconnections of various reaction steps are speculative and no technological information was added to account for conditions in real incinerators. Conclusion of the discussions on the related subject matter, presented in the Parts I‐IV (Ref. 203–206), are also described in this paper.     

秸秆污泥堆肥产纤维素酶细菌的筛选及产酶条件优化

从添加秸秆进行堆肥处理的污泥中采集样品,通过富集培养和刚果红平板染色法筛选分离出具有纤维素降解能力的细菌,再通过酶活力测定从中分离筛选出1株相对高活性的产纤维素酶细菌CI;通过基于16S rRNA基因序列的系统发育分析,初步确定该菌株为Devosia sp..利用单因素试验对目的菌株C1进行产纤维素酶发酵条件优化,结果表明菌株C1产纤维素酶的最佳发酵时间、培养温度、摇床转速以及最适初始pH值分别为60 h、30℃、130 r·min^-1和7.2～7.5,且在该条件下其滤纸酶（FPase）和羧甲基纤维素酶（CMCase）活力分别达23.10和54.97 U·mL^-1.     

地铁车站深基坑围护桩优化及其数值分析

以北京地铁大屯路公交与地铁换乘车站深基坑工程为研究背景,在对基坑围护结构变形分析的基础上,以围护桩为例,通过理论计算对其配筋进行了优化设计,并使用FLAC程序建立了三维数值模型对优化结果进行了检验分析。结果表明,优化方案和原方案相比不会导致基坑变形增大,还可以节约大量材料（桩间距由1200变为1500,桩径由1000变为800）。优化方案可以保证施工安全,同时节省材料和减小成本,对基坑支护设计优化具有一定参考价值。