基于CLUE-S和灰色线性规划的嘉兴北部土地利用优化配置研究

构建基于CLUE-S与灰色线性规划混合模型的土地利用优化配置方法,在导入区域政策、社会经济、生态目标和土地利用现状等条件下,进行土地利用数量结构与空间布局的统一优化,并以嘉兴北部地区为例进行实证研究,共设置现状趋势情景、规划目标情景和规划可持续情景这3种模拟情景.规划可持续情景侧重社会经济环境效益,故对建设用地快速增长和农用地持续减少起到明显调控作用,可实现生态敏感区环境和粮食安全的双重保护,是理想的土地利用优化方案.CLUE-S模型与灰色线性规划的耦合能够兼顾现状条件和区域发展目标,模拟土地利用的数量和空间变化,是解决土地资源优化配置问题的有效方法.     

Prioritization of applicable drivers for green supply chain management implementation toward sustainability in Thailand

ABSTRACT

It is essential that the green supply chain management (GSCM) implementation is effectively supported by several strategic drivers for successful implementation and sustainability, especially for the ‘green’ start-ups with a sustainability-driven organizational strategy. This study aims to determine and prioritize the applicable drivers for GSCM implementation of sustainable development strategies in the electronics industry in Thailand. The applicable drivers and their priorities are obtained by applying the fuzzy group decision-making approaches including fuzzy Delphi and fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process, based on Thai experts’ perspectives. In this study, three prominent organizational theories, resource-based view, relational view, and institutional theory, are needed to explain the drivers of sustainability and to develop a hierarchical model for prioritization of the drivers. Finally, based on the findings of this study, several recommendations are made that may help to improve the sustainable development in Thailand through more effective implementation of GSCM.     

杂合抗菌肽LPCB在毕赤酵母中的表达条件优化

为获取能表达具有天然活性的杂合抗菌肽的重组酵母菌,确定其最佳表达条件,将构建好的重组酵母表达载体pPICZα-A-CecropinB(1～10)-Magainin2(1～12)(简称pPICZα-A-CBMA)和pPICZα-A-Lfcin-Pro-CecropinB(简称pPICZα-A-LPCB)经SacⅠ线性化处理,分别电转入巴斯德毕赤酵母Pichia pastoris X-33,利用抗生素Zeocin筛选阳性克隆,PCR扩增验证,甲醇诱导表达.采用抑菌圈法初步测定产物活性,优化杂合肽LPCB诱导时间、诱导剂浓度、诱导温度、培养基pH等表达条件,传代检测其质粒稳定性.结果显示,基因工程菌P.pastoris X-33/pPICZα-A-CBMA和P.pastoris X-33/pPICZα-A-LPCB成功构建.表达产物前者抑菌活性微弱,后者抑菌活性良好.杂合肽LPCB的最佳表达条件为:25℃,pH中性培养,每24 h添加0.5%(V/V,φ)甲醇,诱导表达72 h.重组酵母菌pPICZα-A-LPCB在培养超过100代后,未发生质粒丢失.     

基于GIS的崂山区地下空间利用适宜性评价

为了更好地利用青岛崂山区地下空间资源,在全面分析该区地形、地质、水文等条件的基础上,结合岩土工程勘察原始数据和现场水样调查分析报告,根据模糊数学理论和专家经验,遴选出地形地貌、地质构造、工程地质、水文地质、洪水淹没、人口密集程度为评价因子并确定各因子的权重,研究构建了该区地下空间利用评价模型。将评价模型与GIS相结合,利用ArcGIS强大的空间分析功能,采用定量分析的方法得到地下空间利用适宜性分区。研究表明青岛崂山区地下空间建设适宜区面积为106．1km^2,占评价区域面积的73．8％;一般区域面积为26．5km^2,占评价区域面积的18．4％;不适宜区域面积为11．14km^2,占评价区域面积的7．8％。     

Threshold management in a coupled economic–ecological system

Economic analysis of optimal ecosystem management in the presence of a threshold has typically ignored the potential for induced behavioral responses. This paper contributes to the literature on non-convex ecosystem management by considering the implications of a particular behavioral response in a regional economy – that of amenity-led growth – to changes in ecosystem services generated by a lake ecosystem subject to a eutrophication threshold. The essential policy challenge is to achieve optimal levels of lake nutrients and urbanization given that improvements to water quality will induce additional migration and urbanization in the region with attendant ecological impacts. We show that policies that ignore the recursive relationship between urbanization and water quality unintentionally exacerbate boom-bust cycles of regional growth and decline and risk pushing the system towards long-run economic decline. In contrast, the optimal policy accounts for the behavioral feedbacks to improved ecosystem services, and balances regional growth and ecological degradation.     

Optimal locations of monitoring stations in water distribution systems under multiple demand patterns: a flaw of demand coverage method and modification

A flaw of demand coverage method in solving optimal monitoring stations problem under multiple demand patterns was identified in this paper. In the demand coverage method, the demand coverage of each set of monitoring stations is calculated by accumulating their demand coverage under each demand pattern, and the impact of temporal distribution between different time periods or demand patterns is ignored. This could lead to miscalculation of the optimal locations of the monitoring stations. To overcome this flaw, this paper presents a Demand Coverage Index (DCI) based method. The optimization considers extended period unsteady hydraulics due to the change of nodal demands with time. The method is cast in a genetic algorithm framework for integration with Environmental Protection Agency Net (EPANET) and is demonstrated through example applications. Results show that the set of optimal locations of monitoring stations obtained using the DCI method can represent the water quality of water distribution systems under multiple demand patterns better than the one obtained using previous methods.     

城市旅游安全指标体系的构建及实证研究——以杭州为例

旅游者在旅行游览过程中会面临各种安全风险,城市旅游安全管理水平决定了控制和降低风险的能力。首先基于模糊层次分析法构建了城市旅游安全评价的指标体系,随后通过对在杭州居住10年以上、长期从事旅游安全管理的专家进行问卷调查,并对调研数据进行分析,结果表明:杭州市旅游安全风险为中等,风险主要来自灾害性天气,建筑物和娱乐器械的可靠性,以及水源污染等方面;最后,针对上述风险,提出了相应的改进建议。     

基于层次分析与模糊综合评价的事故应急预案评估

对应急预案的评估是应急救援的重要组成部分。为评估企业安全生产事故应急预案的优劣,提出了一种层析分析和模糊综合评价相结合的方法。按照科学性、完整性等原则构建了一个包含5个一级要素及28个二级要素的企业安全生产事故应急预案评估指标体系。通过所建立的指标体系对某企业突发安全事故应急预案进行完整性和有效性评估。该研究对企业安全生产事故应急预案的编制和改进、定量评价及评估的软件化具有一定的指导意义。     

煤矿作业人员系统风险知觉能力量化分析

为了定量分析煤矿作业人员风险知觉能力,采用Wickens模型分析风险知觉能力和人因失误作用关系,基于此,结合模糊痕迹理论,提出了基于三角模糊数的信号检测理论,从危险信号辨识敏感性(α)和反应偏好(β)两个指标对煤矿作业人员风险知觉能力进行评价。以某煤矿机电作业人员为例,设计调查问卷,并利用基于三角模糊数的信号检测理论对机电作业人员风险知觉能力进行分析。结果表明,所提出方法可用于评价煤矿井下作业系统中人员的风险知觉能力,能为提升煤矿作业人员风险知觉能力提供参考。     

基于小波分解及遗传BPNN耦合模型的地表水As浓度预测研究

随着工业的快速发展,水体中污染物超标事件时有发生,造成了较严重的水环境污染问题.水环境监测与预报是环境科学研究的重要内容.为了实现地表水砷（As）污染的准确预报,本研究提出小波分解、遗传算法与BP人工神经网络的耦合建模方法,并结合某河流监测站1998—2016年共19年的地表水质监测数据,通过皮尔逊相关系数和信息指标评价法对模型输入变量进行筛选,最后对比分析了在不同水质参数输入情况下BP人工神经网络（BPNN）、遗传算法改进的BPNN（GABP）、小波-遗传BPNN耦合模型（W-GABP）对后6年（2011—2016年） As浓度预测结果的均方根误差（RMSE）、决定系数（R²）、平均绝对百分比误差（MAPE）,以确立最优模型.结果表明：①多水质参数BPNN、GABP与W-GABP耦合模型预测结果的MAPE分别为17.51%、15.98%、14.46%,单水质参数BPNN、GABP与W-GABP耦合模型预测结果的MAPE分别为18.78%、16.74%、7.83%;②小波分解数据前处理及遗传算法均能较大程度地提高预测模型的精度;③对于地表水水质预报,需对比不同模型在不同输入变量下的预测结果,以获得最佳的预测精度.单水质参数输入的W-GABP耦合模型能较准确地预报地表水As浓度的变化情况,对数据缺乏地区水质监控和地表水As污染防治具有重要意义.