沿海地区人地关系演化及优化分析

人地关系是人类社会同周围环境之间的相互关系，在不同时期，随着人类社会的发展表现特征不同。本文以沿海地区“人”与“地”之间矛盾的产生、发展以及追求协调的历史过程为线索，将人地关系的发展变化历程划分为混沌阶段、原始和谐阶段、矛盾发展阶段、矛盾激化调整四个阶段。影响人地关系的因素较多，自然因素主要是地形、气候、地理位置、自然资源等，人为因素主要包括人口的急剧增长以及人类各种不合理的破坏性活动。从人地关系演化的历史过程，可知人地关系的发展是一个动态的过程，针对沿海地区的实际情况，沿海地区应突出以下几个方面以优化人地关系：①利用中国加入世贸组织为契机，深化对外开放；②通过生态工作建设、产业结构调整、城市化等实现社会经济、资源与环境的协调发展；③大力发展海洋经济，以缓解陆上资源与环境的压力。     

Uncertainty representation and propagation in quantified risk assessment using fuzzy sets

It is generally acknowledged that there are substantial uncertainties present in any analysis of risk. This paper provides a brief overview of the current techniques used for uncertainty analyses, and highlights their inappropriateness for practical use in the complete risk assessment process. The concept of fuzzy sets as a means for quantifying uncertainty is introduced and a case study demonstrates the application of this method to a simple consequence analysis where parameter uncertainty is considered. The results of this fuzzy analysis are compared with those of a more traditional probabilistic approach using a Monte Carlo simulation. This comparison demonstrates that the novel approach of fuzzy sets is a more appropriate technique due to its non-statistical nature and that the amount of computation required is substantially reduced compared to the traditional probabilistic approach. The versatility of fuzzy set theory suggests that this approach could also be used to quantify other types of uncertainty present in the risk assessment process, including model uncertainty and expert opinion.     

A COMPUTER SIMULATION PROGRAM FOR OPTIMIZING CONJUNCTIVE OPERATION OF DESALTING PLANTS1

ABSTRACT .Desalting plants can provide a means of firming up erratic natural supplies when properly operated in conjunction with existing water supply reservoir systems. Since the natural inflow is variable, the choice of when to run the desalting plant is difficult. If the plant is turned on too late, a shortage may result; or if the plant runs too long, costly water may be wasted. A computer program is described that can help water planners find an optimal operating rule, i.e., a policy that tells when to turn the plant on and off to meet a given demand. Criteria for defining the firm water yield of the system (with and without desalting) are first defined. The logic of the program is then described. The program, written in FORTRAN IV, successively simulates operation of the given size reservoir-desalting plant system under control of various operating rules and selects the optimal rule as the one which produces the required firm water yield at the least unit cost. The optimal plant size and the staging of construction can also be studied by making a series of computations. Applications of the Operating Rule Program to water systems in California, Utah and New York are described. The studies show that, compared with base load operation, substantial savings are possible if optimum intermittent conjunctive operation of the desalting plant is followed.     

山东省耕地资源价值评估研究

显化耕地资源价值，有利于耕地保护和农业可持续发展。本文以山东省为例，将耕地看作一个生态经济系统，按耕地资源价值形成的影响因素，以收益倍数法为基础，应用模糊数学和灰色系统原理，对耕地资源进行价值核算。     

A LUMPED APPROACH TO THE INVERSE PROBLEM IN GROUND WATER HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT: A solution procedure to solve the inverse problem in ground water, based on lumped approach, has been proposed. The method has the following advantages: 1) exact determination of the boundary conditions and the physical laws of flow through porous media is not required; 2) all errors of approximation in describing the boundary conditions, physical laws, and the aquifer properties are lumped into the surrogate parameters; and 3) the same mathematical model can be employed both in the identification process and in the subsequent management studies. The optimal values of the surrogate parameters are found by using a multidimensional unconstrained optimization code devised by Powell. The solution procedure and the convergence characteristics of the proposed algorithm have been illustrated by two hypothetical problems.     

模糊综合评判法在隧道地质超前预报中的应用

为了更准确地进行隧道地质超前预报,在构建了隧道围岩稳定性等级划分综合评估体系的基础上,采用模糊综合评判法对沪蓉西扁担垭隧道某塌方段围岩稳定性进行了综合评估研究,并得出了修正后的扁担垭隧道围岩稳定性评价体系,其评估结果与实际情况一致。     

模糊物元法综合评价福州市大气环境质量

大气环境质量的综合评价是城市环境质量考核的重要内容,鉴于大气环境质量评价中客观存在的不确定性和模糊性,将熵值理论与模糊物元分析法相结合应用于大气环境质量综合评价中,可有效解决这种不确定性和模糊性。应用该模型对福州市的大气环境质量进行综合评价,将评价结果与属性识别理论模型的评价结果相比较,二者基本吻合,结果证明该方法可行。     

基于资源环境承载力的规划结构优化方法探讨

规划结构合理性以及规划结构优化是规划环境影响评价关注的核心问题之一。文章以某煤电、煤化工基地规划环评为例,探讨了以区域资源、环境承载力为约束条件,以经济效益最大化为规划目标,采用线性规划法优化煤电、煤化工基地规划结构的过程。线性规划模型以煤电、煤化工产品的规模作为变量;资源、环境约束条件包括水资源消耗量、煤炭资源消耗量、蒸汽消耗量、电能消耗量、SO2排放量和CO2排放量。通过线性规划模型对煤电、煤化工产品的规模进行优化,在增加煤电、煤化工基地的经济效益的同时,减小了区域资源消耗和污染物排放水平。     

Adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system for classification of water quality status

An adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system was used for classifying water quality status of river. It applied several physical and inorganic chemical indicators including dissolved oxygen, chemical oxygen demand, and ammonia-nitrogen. A data set (nine weeks, total 845 observations) was collected from 100 monitoring stations in all major river basins in China and used for training and validating the model. Up to 89.59% of the data could be correctly classified using this model. Such performance was more competitive when compared with artificial neural networks. It is applicable in evaluation and classification of water quality status.