VALUATION OF IMPROVED IRRIGATION EFFICIENCY FROM AN EXHAUSTIBLE GROUNDWATER SOURCE1

This paper presents estimates made via a recursive linear programming model of the net benefits of improving irrigation application efficiency from an exhaustible groundwater source. Net benefits were derived for different application efficiency levels under furrow, sprinkler, and LEPA irrigation systems. In addition, net benefit estimates were obtained for the transition across irrigation systems. Solutions from the model indicate that low crop prices have a differential impact on net benefits across irrigation application efficiencies and irrigation systems. Also, the more limited groundwater situations consistently reduce the economic incentive to adopt improved irrigation application techniques across all irrigation systems.     

A STOCHASTIC DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING BASED APPROACH TO THE OPERATION OF A MULTI-RESERVOIR SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: An heuristic iterative technique based upon stochastic dynamic programming is presented for the analysis of the operation of a three reservoir ‘Y’ shaped hydroelectric system. The technique is initiated using historical inflow data for the downstream reservoir. At each iteration the optimal policies for the downstream hydroelectric generating unit are used to provide relative weightings or targets for operation of upstream reservoirs. New input inflows to the downstream reservoir are then obtained by running the historical streamflow record through the optimal policies for the upstream reservoirs. These flows are then used to develop a new operating policy for the downstream reservoir and hence new targets for the upstream reservoirs. The process is continued until the operating policies for each reservoir provide the same overall system benefit for two successive iterations. Results obtained from the procedure are compared to the results obtained by historical operation of the system. The procedure is shown to develop operating policies which give benefits which are as close to the historical benefits as can be expected given the choice of the number of storage state variables.     

THE IMPACTS OF WATERWAY USER FEES ON GRAIN TRANSPORTATION ON THE SNAKE-COLUMBIA RIVER1

ABSTRACT: Grain transportation is a major economic activity on the multiple use Snake-Columbia River System. Congress is currently considering increased transportation user fees aimed at recapturing federal expenditures for waterway operations and maintenance. Three types of fee structure and four levels of cost recovery are evaluated using a network program model. In each case traffic is diverted away from the river to other Puget Sound ports via truck and rail transport modes. Grain shippers in the region will be adversely affected by a higher transport bill. The Lower Columbia River port economic activities will be negatively affected; however, competitive uses of the river, recreation, and hydroelectric generation will likely benefit modestly.     

OPTIMAL GROUND WATER MANAGEMENT IN TWO-AQUIFER SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT; This paper presents a numerical model for the prediction of optimal ground water withdrawal from a two-aquifer system by observing a set of constraints determined by the ecological conditions of the ground water basin. The aquifer system consists of an upper unconfined and a lower confined aquifer with a leaky stratum between them. It is assumed that water is withdrawn from the confined aquifer only, but the unconfined aquifer will also be affected due to the leakiness of the layer separating the upper and lower aquifers. Simulation and linear programming are employed for developing a computer model for the optimal management of such systems, with the objectives of determining withdrawal rates for predetermined ground water levels.     

A SEPARABLE LINEAR ALGORITHM FOR HYDROPOWER OPTIMIZATION1

ABSTRACT: A deterministic, separable, linear algorithm is presented for maximizing aggregate hydropower production. The method is iterative and amenable to solution using standard LP software. The utility of the technique is demonstrated using several test applications involving a hypothetical single-purpose hydropower reservoir and a monthly increment 20-year flow record from the Gunpowder River in Maryland. The separable linearized forms solved quickly using MPSX on a variety of IBM hardware: 3090-400 VF, 3084 QX, dual processor 4381-3, and an AT/370 personal computer. For comparison purposes, the original nonlinear nonseparable version of the model was also solved using MINOS. This yielded a value of aggregate hydropower marginally higher than that using MPSX. The separable, linearized methodology proved to be a useful and an efficient means of generating good starting points for MINOS. The use of these warm starts effected substantial reductions in MINOS execution times.     

The use of computer models in planning upland land use

The British Ecological Society has suggested that computer‐based techniques could be used in the coordination of policies across different land uses in upland planning. This paper looks briefly at one such technique — a linear programming model — and describes its use at a regional scale for the Sedburgh area in north‐west England. The paper concludes with consideration of why such models are not in more common use.     

STATISTICAL AND GEOSTATISTICAL MODELLING OF PRELIMINARILY ADJUSTED DEFOLIATION ON AN EUROPEAN SCALE

Since 1987 tree crown condition is surveyed annually in large parts of Europe mainly in terms of defoliation. The plot-wise means of defoliation from 1994 to 2000 were evaluated by General Linear Models (GLM) in order to describe country-specific levels of defoliation and age-trends. Additional runs with estimates for influences of insects and fungi were performed. The amount of variance of defoliation explained by country, age and its interaction was between 35% and 59% for the main tree species, except for Quercus ilex. Additionally, up to 10% could be explained by the inclusion of estimates for infestations by insects and fungi. Residuals of the GLMs were taken as a measure of forest condition not biased by country or age effects and interpreted as preliminarily adjusted defoliation (PAD). PAD values were analysed using geostatistical methods. The modelled spatial autocorrelations were used for kriging. The resulting maps give an overview on regions with elevated defoliation, which may pinpoint regional causes of defoliation. The elimination of methodologically caused variance is a precondition of any cause–effect oriented analyses. The combination of explorative modelling and geostatistics will promote the choice of further promising predictors.     

Spatial based compromise programming for multiple criteria decision making in land use planning

Today, competing land use is continuing to occur in many developed regions. In the Agricultural Development Zone of Western Sydney Region, which is characterised by complex landscape patterns, land use competition is widespread. From a land use planning perspective, identification of suitable locations for a given type of land use is necessary for decision makers to formulate land use alternatives in different locations, based on existing land potential and constraints. For such a region, use of a simple method that implements a categorical system and considers only inherent land characteristics in the analysis is often inadequate to arrive at an optimal spatial decision. The primary aim of this paper is to develop spatial modelling procedures for agricultural land suitability analysis using compromise programming (CoPr) and fuzzy set approach within a geographical information systems (GIS) environment. Five main sets of spatial data for use as decision criteria were developed by using fuzzy set methodology: a land suitability index (LSI) for maximising the land productivity objective; an erosion tolerance index (ETI) for minimising the erosion risk objective; a runoff curve number (CN) for maximising the water discharge regulation objective; an accessibility (RP) measure for maximising the land accessibility objective; and the proximity to water body (WP) for minimising the water pollution objective. An L _p -metric was used in the analysis utilising different strategies with representative indices ranging from a situation where full tradeoff among criteria occurs to a noncompensatory condition. Different weighting combinations were also applied, and decision analysis was carried out by using values ranging from 0 to 1.0, where 1.0 is considered as an ideal point. The CoPr model demonstrated in this paper yielded a promising result, as several different techniques of sensitivity analysis show reasonably good results. Likewise, an overlay of that result with the present land use/land cover indicates a good corresponding spatial matching between existing land use (orchard and cultivated land), and the cells (land parcels) classified as the best in CoPr. The results are amenable to various map display techniques, either using continuous values or by defining different cut off points in the data space within a raster GIS environment.     

线性规划在滇池草海污染目标控制优化决策中的运用

滇池草海污染治理工程是一个复杂的系统，做好规划是保证工程治理效果和有效使用投资的前提。本文将综合治理目标和各决策变量建立函数关系，并将其分析归纳为线性规划问题，根据线性规划的求解原则求出了目标规划的优化方案。     

SOIL EROSION AND GROUND WATER POLLUTION TRADEOFFS FOR NONIRRIGATED FARMING SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: Traditional focus on reducing one environmental externality may cause another externality to increase. This article examines the environmental and economic costs of abating soil loss and (or) nitrate leaching through alternative optimal production systems in the nonirrigated farming systems of Northeastern Oregon. Models estimating soil loss and nitrate‐nitrogen leaching rates associated with current production processes, are linked to a Multi‐Objective Programming (MOP) model. The results show that site specific conditions influence the level of abatement expenditures and optimal production strategies to reduce soil loss and leaching rates. Moreover, while existing production strategies are effective in reducing soil loss at little cost, no strategies could be identified to reduce nitrate leaching rate on some soils.