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31.
32.
Evaluation of accuracy of linear regression models in predicting urban stormwater discharge characteristics 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Stormwater runoff has been identified as a source of pollution for the environment, especially for receiving waters. In order to quantify and manage the impacts of stormwater runoff on the environment, predictive models and mathematical models have been developed. Predictive tools such as regression models have been widely used to predict stormwater discharge characteristics. Storm event characteristics, such as antecedent dry days (ADD), have been related to response variables, such as pollutant loads and concentrations. However it has been a controversial issue among many studies to consider ADD as an important variable in predicting stormwater discharge characteristics. In this study, we examined the accuracy of general linear regression models in predicting discharge characteristics of roadway runoff. A total of 17 storm events were monitored in two highway segments, located in Gwangju, Korea. Data from the monitoring were used to calibrate United States Environmental Protection Agency's Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). The calibrated SWMM was simulated for 55 storm events, and the results of total suspended solid (TSS) discharge loads and event mean concentrations (EMC) were extracted. From these data, linear regression models were developed. R2 and p-values of the regression of ADD for both TSS loads and EMCs were investigated. Results showed that pollutant loads were better predicted than pollutant EMC in the multiple regression models. Regression may not provide the true effect of site-specific characteristics, due to uncertainty in the data. 相似文献
33.
研究表明:CALPUFF模式是运用于广域的大气扩散模型,在区域范围较大的复杂地形条件下的应用具有突出的优势.利用CALPUFF大气扩散模型模拟漳州市2009年气象场和污染物浓度场,采用监测值对模拟结果进行验证表明模型的适用性;基于现状污染源,建立大气污染物传递系数矩阵,结合线性优化法测算了不同环境空气质量标准下漳州市大气环境容量. 相似文献
34.
Conservation biologists increasingly rely on spatial predictive models of biodiversity to support decision-making. Therefore, highly accurate and ecologically meaningful models are required at relatively broad spatial scales. While statistical techniques have been optimized to improve model accuracy, less focus has been given to the question: How does the autecology of a single species affect model quality? We compare a direct modelling approach versus a cumulative modelling approach for predicting plant species richness, where the latter gives more weight to the ecology of functional species groups. In the direct modelling approach, species richness is predicted by a single model calibrated for all species. In the cumulative modelling approach, the species were partitioned into functional groups, with each group calibrated separately and species richness of each group was cumulated to predict total species richness. We hypothesized that model accuracy depends on the ecology of individual species and that the cumulative modelling approach would predict species richness more accurately. The predictors explained plant species richness by ca. 25%. However, depending on the functional group the deviance explained varied from 3 to 67%. While both modelling approaches performed equally well, the models of the different functional groups highly varied in their quality and their spatial richness pattern. This variability helps to improve our understanding on how plant functional groups respond to ecological gradients. 相似文献
35.
To promote modern agricultural equipment level is one characteristic of constructing and developing modern agriculture in China.This paper makes up stepwise linear regression analysis model of influence factors of modern agricultural equipment level,and chooses rural labor,per capita income of rural residents,rural investment,proportion of people at secondary education level and at higher level in per hundred rural labor force and arable land area as independent variables,and total power of machine as induced variable.The major results show that the relativity of modern agricultural equipment level,rural investment and education level of peasants is remarkable,and they are the major influence factors of modern agricultural equipment level.Raising investment level of rural infrastructure construction as well as and research and development and promotion of advanced and applicable modern agricultural equipment,improving quality and education level of peasants can accelerate the development of China’s modern agricultural equipment effectively in the process of agricultural sustainable development. 相似文献
36.
PIA E. LENTINI PHILIP GIBBONS JOSIE CARWARDINE JOERN FISCHER MICHAEL DRIELSMA TARA G. MARTIN 《Conservation biology》2013,27(4):796-807
Although the concept of connectivity is decades old, it remains poorly understood and defined, and some argue that habitat quality and area should take precedence in conservation planning instead. However, fragmented landscapes are often characterized by linear features that are inherently connected, such as streams and hedgerows. For these, both representation and connectivity targets may be met with little effect on the cost, area, or quality of the reserve network. We assessed how connectivity approaches affect planning outcomes for linear habitat networks by using the stock‐route network of Australia as a case study. With the objective of representing vegetation communities across the network at a minimal cost, we ran scenarios with a range of representation targets (10%, 30%, 50%, and 70%) and used 3 approaches to account for connectivity (boundary length modifier, Euclidean distance, and landscape‐value [LV]). We found that decisions regarding the target and connectivity approach used affected the spatial allocation of reserve systems. At targets ≥50%, networks designed with the Euclidean distance and LV approaches consisted of a greater number of small reserves. Hence, by maximizing both representation and connectivity, these networks compromised on larger contiguous areas. However, targets this high are rarely used in real‐world conservation planning. Approaches for incorporating connectivity into the planning of linear reserve networks that account for both the spatial arrangement of reserves and the characteristics of the intervening matrix highlight important sections that link the landscape and that may otherwise be overlooked. El Efecto de la Planeación para la Conectividad en Redes de Reservas Lineales 相似文献
37.
Nageshwar Rao Bhaskar E. Earl Whitlatch 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1987,23(6):1027-1036
ABSTRACT: Mathematical optimization techniques are used to study the operation and design of a single, multi-purpose reservoir system. Optimal monthly release policies are derived for Hoover Reservoir, located in Central Ohio, using chance-constrained linear programming and dynamic programming-regression methodologies. Important characteristics of the former approach are derived, discussed, and graphically illustrated using Hoover Reservoir as a case example. Simulation procedures are used to examine and compare the overall performance of the optimal monthly reservoir release policies derived under the two approaches. Results indicate that, for the mean detention time and the corresponding safe yield target water supply release under existing design of Hoover Reservoir, the dynamic programming policies produce lower average annual losses (as defined by a two-sided quadratic loss function) while achieving at least as high reliability levels when compared to policies derived under the chance-constrained linear programming method. In making this comparison, the reservoir release policies, although not identical, are assumed to be linear. This restricted form of the release policy is necessary to make the chance-constrained programming method mathematically tractable. 相似文献
38.
Aregai Tecle Martin M. Fogel Lucien Duckstein 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1988,24(6):1169-1178
ABSTRACT: The impacts of alternative forest watershed management practices are examined from a multicriterion viewpoint in order to select the most satisfactory management scheme. The selection process is carried out using two types of multicriterion decision making techniques: the outranking types of ELECTRE I and II, and the distance-based type of compromise programming (CP). The process is illustrated using the U.S. Forest Service Beaver Creek Experimental Watershed in the Salt-Verde River Basin of Arizona as an example. The desired objectives of the experimental study and the alternative forest watershed resources management schemes are transformed into an evaluation matrix of alternatives versus criteria array. Analyses of the matrix using the aforementioned techniques result in a complete preference ordering of the feasible alternatives in the cases of ELECTRE LI and CP and a partial ordering when ELECTRE I is used. In addition, some sensitivity analyses have been performed and showed ELECTRE II and CP to be fairly robust with respect to parameter changes, while ELECTRE I being highly sensitive to changes in threshold levels. Overall the three techniques pointed out that 65 percent vegetation cut is the best management scheme, while the next best is shown to be 50 percent vegetation cut. 相似文献
39.
John E. Keith Rangesan Narayanan 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1988,24(6):1247-1256
ABSTRACF: Examination of a series of studies of the economically efficient water allocations in the Upper Colorado River, Yellowstone River, and Great Basins indicate that water is not a serious general physical constraint on the development of energy resources, so long as public institutions do not hinder the exchange of water rights in markets. Energy development will cause limited impacts on other water-using sectors, principally agriculture. There appears to be little reason to develop large-scale water storage facilities, even during periods of reduced water production. Water storage developments appear to be necessary only when institutional constraints severely restrict water rights markets and transfers. 相似文献
40.
Thanakorn Uan-On Otto J. Helweg 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1988,24(2):261-268
ABSTRACT: The Nonlinear Risk-Benefit (NRB) Algorithm includes risk as one of the objectives in a multiple-objective optimization problem. The NRB Algorithm is derived by extending the Surrogate Worth Trade-Off method to quadratic programming. This category of problem is common in water resources planning and design, especially multipurpose reservoir systems. Consequently, an example is given using the algorithm for optimally operating a multipurpose reservoir. 相似文献