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961.
针对装备群备件保障决策问题,从装备群-装备两个层次进行分析建模和优化。首先,根据可靠性分配方法将装备群系统可靠性分配给各装备子系统,在此基础上,考虑总费用和保障概率的要求,利用pareto多目标优化方法对各子系统装备所需携(运)行的备件进行合理优化,建立一个多目标优化决策模型。最后结合应用实例展开应用研究,可为装备群系统决策从定性到定量提供一种新的思路。  相似文献   
962.
ABSTRACT: This paper is concerned with finding an optimal allocation of water entitlements for each of two users of water who share a reservoir. Two instruments of allocation are considered. The first, release sharing, involves sharing the releases from the reservoir; the second, capacity sharing, is concerned with allocating to each user of water a share of inflows, reservoir capacity and leakage and evaporation losses. Stochastic dynamic programming problems of reservoir operation under each type of sharing arrangement are formulated. It is shown that the maximum discounted expected profit from reservoir operation over the life of the storage using capacity sharing is at least as large as that obtained using release sharing and that release sharing is not Pareto efficient.  相似文献   
963.
    
The best-fit equations of linear and non-linear forms of the two widely used kinetic models, namely pseudo-first-order and pseudo-second-order equations, were compared in this study. The experimental kinetics of methylene blue adsorption on activated carbon was used for this research. Both the correlation coefficient (R 2) and the normalized standard deviation Δq(%) were employed as error analysis methods to determine the best-fitting equations. The results show that the non-linear forms of pseudo-first-order and pseudo-second-order models were more suitable than the linear forms for fitting the experimental data. The experimental kinetics may have been distorted by linearization of the linear kinetic equations, and thus, the non-linear forms of kinetic equations should be primarily used to obtain the adsorption parameters. In addition, the Δq(%) method for error analysis may be better to determine the best-fitting model in this case.  相似文献   
964.
    
The integration of carbon sequestration value of forest ecosystems into forest management planning models has become increasingly important in sustainable forest management. This study analyses the economic effects of different minimum cutting ages on timber and carbon sequestration values for a Scots pine forest clumped mainly in older age classes in northeast Turkey. The analysis is performed by formulating three optimisation models. The objective of each model is to maximise net present value (NPV) of harvested timber, net present value of carbon sequestration and the total net present value of timber production and carbon sequestration, respectively. Results showed that increasing the minimum cutting ages by 10 years increased the NPV of timber by 10.5%. However, the current minimum cutting ages were optimal for maximizing the NPV of carbon and the sum of the NPV of timber and carbon benefits. In addition, the model outputs were found to be quite sensitive to unit carbon prices.  相似文献   
965.
    
Fragmentation of the boreal forest by linear features, including seismic lines, has destabilized predator–prey dynamics, resulting in the decline of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) populations. Restoration of human-altered habitat has therefore been identified as a critical management tool for achieving self-sustaining woodland caribou populations. However, only recently has testing of the response of caribou and other wildlife to restoration activities been conducted. Early work has centered around assessing changes in wildlife use of restored seismic lines. We evaluated whether restoration reduces the movement rates of predators and their associated prey, which is expected to decrease predator hunting efficiency and ultimately reduce caribou mortality. We developed a new method for using cameras to measure fine-scale movement by measuring speed as animals traveled between cameras in an array. We used our method to quantify speed of caribou, moose (Alces alces), bears (Ursus americanus), and wolves (Canis lupus) on treated (restored) and untreated seismic lines. Restoration treatments reduced travel speeds along seismic lines of wolves by 1.38 km/h, bears by 0.55 km/h, and caribou by 1.57 km/h, but did not reduce moose travel speeds. Reduced predator and caribou speeds on treated seismic lines are predicted to decrease encounter rates between predators and caribou and thus lower caribou kill rates. However, further work is needed to determine whether reduced movement rates result in reduced encounter rates with prey, and ultimately reduced caribou mortality.  相似文献   
966.
四川省大气背景站颗粒物PM2.5和PM10实时监测结果表明,两个点位的PM2.5浓度占PM10浓度分别为80.15%、68.9%,两个点位的PM2.j浓度和PM10浓度均呈显著线性关系,点位1:y=0.8634x-0.2212,R^2=0.9823;点位2:y=0.7352x-0.2142,R^2=0.7767。  相似文献   
967.
    
Air Pollution Control model is developed for open-pit metal mines. Model will aid decision makers to select a cost-effective solution. Open-pit metal mines contribute toward air pollution and without effective control techniques manifests the risk of violation of environmental guidelines. This paper establishes a stochastic approach to conceptualize the air pollution control model to attain a sustainable solution. The model is formulated for decision makers to select the least costly treatment method using linear programming with a defined objective function and multi-constraints. Furthermore, an integrated fuzzy based risk assessment approach is applied to examine uncertainties and evaluate an ambient air quality systematically. The applicability of the optimized model is explored through an open-pit metal mine case study, in North America. This method also incorporates the meteorological data as input to accommodate the local conditions. The uncertainties in the inputs, and predicted concentration are accomplished by probabilistic analysis using Monte Carlo simulation method. The output results are obtained to select the cost-effective pollution control technologies for PM2.5, PM10, NOx, SO2 and greenhouse gases. The risk level is divided into three types (loose, medium and strict) using a triangular fuzzy membership approach based on different environmental guidelines. Fuzzy logic is then used to identify environmental risk through stochastic simulated cumulative distribution functions of pollutant concentration. Thus, an integrated modeling approach can be used as a decision tool for decision makers to select the cost-effective technology to control air pollution.  相似文献   
968.
  总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
The health hazard of mercury (Hg) compounds is internationally recognized, and the main pathways for methylmercury (MeHg) intake in humans are through consumption of food, especially fish. Given the large releases of Hg to the environment in China, combined with the fast development of hydropower, this issue deserves attention. Provided similar mobilization pathways of Hg in China as seen in reservoirs in North America and Europe one should expect increased Hg contamination in relation to future hydropower reservoir construction in this country. This study presents total Hg (THg) concentrations in wild fish from six Guizhou reservoirs, China. The THg concentrations in fish were generally low despite high background levels in the bedrock and depositions from local point sources. The over all mean ± SD concentration of THg was (0.066 ± 0.078) μg/g (n = 235). After adjusting for among-reservoir variation in THg, there were significant differences in THg among functional groups of the fish, assumed to re?ect trophic levels. Predicted THg- concentration ratios, retrieved from a mixed linear model, between the functional groups were 9:4:4:1 for carnivorous, omnivorous, planktivorous and herbivorous fish. This result indicated that MeHg accumulation may prevail even under circumstances with short food chains as in this Chinese water system. No fish exceeded recommended maximum THg limit for human consumption set by World Health Organization and the Standardization Administration of China (0.5 μg/g fish wet weight (ww)). Only six fish (2.5%) exceeded the maximum THg limit set by US Environmental Protection Agency (0.3 μg/g fish ww).  相似文献   
969.
    
The aim of this study is to determine the effectiveness of a natural tropical tree resin in controlling termites thus providing protection from their destruction. Tree resin from the bark of tropical trees offers the potential for this protection. Termites were fed by filter paper soaked in tropical tree resin dissolved in a solvent at different concentrations for 15 days. The number of termites still alive on each day was observed and recorded. In this paper, we use four types of statistical models: Partially linear model, piecewise linear model, cubic smooth spline and mixed effect model to analyze the termite data. The results show that tropical tree resin, particularly at a higher concentration of 10 mg is significantly more effective in killing termites. We show that two dishes under 10 mg of tree resin were mistaken since the data for these two dishes are shown insignificantly different from data under 5 mg. The partially linear model shows that there is non‐linear (piecewise linear) time effect. Both piecewise linear model and cubic spline smoothing show that the most effective period is the first week. The non‐parametric smoothing, cubic spline, and piecewise linear model are not significantly different. Mixed effect model is consistent with partial linear model and piecewise linear model. The estimated treatment effect is time varying with a change point at day 7. Therefore, we suggest the piecewise linear model as the final simplest one for prediction. This model fits the data with adjusted R2 = 93.7 per cent and shows that on average, 10 mg is 68.9 per cent more efficient than 5 mg in killing termites during the first week. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
970.
ABSTRACT: The potential withdrawal of water from the Mullica River-Great Bay Estuary is southern New Jersey prompted a joint study by biologists and engineers to determine the maximum supply of water that could be diverted from the basin without causing undue environmental impacts. The effect of removal of water from the basin over long periods of time was simulated by review of records of a severe drought. Based on analysis of streamflows and salinities during these drought conditions, minimum mean monthly streamflows were determined corresponding to the maximum salinities tolerable by the fish and shellfish communities, important sources of revenue and recreation in the region. A physically optimized, chance constrained linear programming model was developed for the conjunctive use of ground and surface waters. Adjusting water withdrawal from streamflow and groundwater sources according to physical and seasonal criteria would permit maximum use of the basin's resources, with no additional burden on the ecology of the estuary.  相似文献   
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