基于灰色关联分析的高层建筑火灾风险评估

为了研究高层建筑火灾风险,在综合考虑高层建筑空间火灾特点及发展过程的基础上,建立了包括安全疏散系统、建筑自身防火能力、灭火能力、消防救援设施以及安全管理五大因素的火灾风险评估指标体系,并利用灰色关联度分析法构建了高层建筑火灾系统的灰色关联评价模型。通过计算各评价指标序列和实际样本序列直接的灰色关联度,建立了系统的灰色关联矩阵,得到了各影响因素及系统整体的风险等级。利用该模型对上海市静安区胶州路728号教师公寓大楼的火灾风险进行了综合评估,结果与实际情况相符。评估结果表明,在高层建筑火灾风险评估中引入灰色关联分析方法可以得到高层建筑火灾危险性的科学数据,并进一步指出薄弱环节,对高层建筑的防火设计及日常安全管理等都具有指导意义。     

Capacity building for sustainable development: some Mexican perspectives

A broadly defined scientific Capacity Building (CB) for Sustainable Development (SD) is needed all around the world, and the development of innovative capacities in the developing countries is a priority. For this, first we need to know how this concept is applied in some developing countries. In this paper we present some Mexican experiences in the field of capacity building for sustainable development. The main problems are the monodisciplinary training of the specialists, the absence of a sound policy for promotion, career development and assessment of researchers, as well as of their projects when they are interdisciplinary and development-oriented. The main proposals to solve these problems are the creation of mechanisms that foster and legitimize interdisciplinary work; a decentralized planning process with the specific objective of establishing the needs and orientations on a regional basis; provide resources to long-term projects, and finally, consensus on asking international funding agencies for stronger support for public higher education institutions in developing countries in order to increase and strengthen their capacity for education and research in general, and in the field of SD in particular.     

Transitional coordination in Sudan (2006–08): lessons from the United Nations Resident Coordinator's Office

With the increase in internal conflicts following the end of the Cold War, the scale and scope of the United Nations' work in conflict and post‐conflict environments grew markedly. As a result, the coordination of programming and policy in the transition from relief to recovery has been a central preoccupation of academics and practitioners alike. Intergovernmental bodies such as the United Nations Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) have made these topics a subject of regular discussion, while some countries have altered their bureaucratic structures to respond more effectively in post‐crisis settings, particularly in cases involving the deployment of national troops. The United Nations Resident Coordinator's Office in Sudan provides a model for other transitional countries and is a useful case study of the broader challenges of post‐crisis programming. Effective coordination structures and planning/programming processes are identified as interdependent prerequisites for ensuring a successful transition from relief to recovery.     

Quantitative assessment of post‐disaster housing recovery: a case study of Punta Gorda,Florida, after Hurricane Charley

Quantitative assessment of post‐disaster housing recovery is critical to enhancing understanding of the process and improving the decisions that shape it. Nevertheless, few comprehensive empirical evaluations of post‐disaster housing recovery have been conducted, and no standard measurement methods exist. This paper presents a quantitative assessment of housing recovery in Punta Gorda, Florida, United States, following Hurricane Charley of August 2004, including an overview of the phases of housing recovery, progression of recovery over time, alternative trajectories of recovery, differential recovery, incorporation of mitigation, and effect on property sales. The assessment is grounded in a conceptual framework that considers the recovery of both people and place, and that emphasises recovery as a process, not as an endpoint. Several data sources are integrated into the assessment—including building permits, remotely sensed imagery, and property appraiser data—and their strengths and limitations are discussed with a view to developing a standardised method for measuring and monitoring housing recovery.     

西南农村社区避难建筑的面积指标与配置策略研究

地震是西南地区面临的最严重和破坏性最强的灾害类型,在农村迫切需要安全可靠的社区避难建筑保障村民的生命安全.近年来国家高度重视避难建筑建设,要求提高室内避灾规模,而我国缺乏农村社区避难建筑设计的规范标准,既有研究也有所不足.因此,该文系统介绍了核定西南农村社区避难建筑面积指标的研究方法与技术依据.首先说明了避难建筑面积配...     

马鞍山市住宅冬季能耗调查

对马鞍山市60户住宅冬季能耗进行了问卷调查,分析了住宅建筑、采暖设备等的内容与特点,统计了冬季电、天然气和水的消耗,得出马鞍山市住宅冬季能耗相关指标;并比较了马鞍山市与长沙、上海等城市住宅的能耗调查结果,比较结果表明：虽然马鞍山市冬季平均能耗比同气候地区的大城市低,但采暖电耗并不比大城市低。     

基于人工神经网络法的绿色建筑评价

以实际建筑物为例,介绍了用层次分析法建立绿色建筑评价模型的过程,并分别用层次分析法和人工神经网络法对实际建筑物进行了评价。评价结果显示,人工神经网络法与层次分析法相对误差不到0.5%,表明人工神经网络法作为一种客观科学的评价方法,应用于绿色建筑的评价,能有效降低主观因素带来的影响,会使结果更具有客观性。     

基于技术方案设计和运行管理分析的绿色建筑评价模型

建立了基于技术方案设计和运行管理状况综合分析的绿色建筑评价体系,并对其评价指标、评价方法、评分方式等内容进行了详细地论述。评价体系分为4层,包括1个目标、2个1级指标、9个2级指标和45个3级指标。与现有评价体系相比,在下述两方面有所创新：综合考虑了技术方案设计和运行管理状况两方面对建筑物绿色性能的体现;采用层次分析法和人工神经网络相结合的评价方法完成指标评分的合成,提高了评价结果的客观性。     

Quantitative assessment in safety reports of the consequences from the detonation of solid explosives

Safety reports are mandatory documents in member states of European Union whenever any threshold limits of amounts of either stored or processed hazardous substances are exceeded. After a short introduction to EU Seveso Directives on major-accident hazards involving dangerous substances and to the transposition and implementation by member states, with a brief comment on last 2012/18/EU Directive (also known as Seveso III directive), the paper focuses on drafting of safety reports for industrial activities involving solid explosives. Specifically, the quantitative assessment of consequences from detonation is tackled respect to the side-on overpressure and the debris production. Both direct and inverse problems are illustrated to determine respectively the overpressure value at a given distance, and the explosive amount that allows respecting the regulations. Their solution is based on either analytic or numerical techniques and being based on recent scientific publications on the matter either evaluates or zeroes nonlinear algebraic equations. The availability of these equations avoids grounding the consequences assessment on diagrams and nomograms that otherwise would lead to interpretation and usage errors besides avoiding the automatic solution of the inverse problem. The paper focuses also on details such as embankment, crater, munitions, rocket propellant, building structure, and wall material that, at different levels, play a role in the assessment of detonation consequences. A discussion on debris formation, the available literature, and the evaluation of the impact probability of fragments on both fixed and moving targets closes the paper.     

Compromises of Bali Roadmap

Abstract

The Bali Roadmap, as the breakthrough on inter-governmental negotiation of climate change mitigation, having brought United States on track, is still a result of compromises. The major compromises of the Bali Roadmap are centered around three issues of quantifying emission reduction targets, developing countries’ obligations as well as quantifying developed countries’ financial assistance in developing countries’ capacity building on climate change. It is found that the rationalities behind these compromises are the national interests. Due to the fact, achieving cohesion among all nations in climate change actions is very difficult. Therefore, the Bali Roadmap may lead to a tough way with distant hope. However, technology innovation and well-designed economic instruments would be helpful and supportive for further international negotiation and cooperation.