城市高温灾害性天气影响分析与危害评估——以长春市为例

以长春市1951-2008年的气象资料为基础,分析了长春市高温灾害性天气的时空分布特征及气温变暖趋势,总结了长春市温度变化与城市人口数量、GDP及供电量之间的关系,最终建立了长春市高温灾害性天气影响及危害评估的指标体系。     

我国自然灾害时空分布及其粮食风险评估

分析了旱灾、水灾、风雹灾、霜冻灾、台风灾和农业病虫害、草害、鼠害8种自然灾害的时空分布情况,计算了其造成的历年粮食减产量,并在此基础上评估2020年自然灾害对粮食产量的影响。结果表明,2020年不同自然灾害对我国各省粮食生产的影响程度不同。旱灾风险区集中在我国北方地区,分布在黄淮海区、西北区等;涝灾风险区集中在我国南方地区,分布在长江中下游区等;风雹灾风险区对我国粮食产量影响相对较小,主要分布在新疆和青海;台风灾风险区集中在我国南方沿海地区;农业病虫害风险区集中在我国的南方地区,分布在华南沿海区和西南区等;而霜冻灾、农业草害、鼠害对粮食生产的影响范围和影响程度较小。     

不同标准对城市土壤重金属质量分数的评价

对广州市某区城市土壤重金属污染现状进行调查,共采集土壤样品34个,分析样品中As,Hg,Cr,Cd,Ni和Pb的全量及有效态质量分数,探讨重金属元素全量和有效态质量分数之间的关系,并采用4种不同标准对结果进行了评价. 结果表明:研究区工业用地、城区和农村居住区的土壤已受到一定程度的重金属污染,且为2种或3种重金属元素的复合污染;As,Hg,Cr,Cd,Ni和Pb有效态质量分数平均值分别为0.09,0.004,0.09,0.18,0.40和32.80 mg/kg,Cd和Pb的有效态质量分数占全量的比例较高. 4种标准综合评价结果中,轻度、中度和重度污染样点数占样点总数的比例依次为国标(GB15618—1995)二级标准评价(62%)>有效态污染起始值评价(29%)>全量污染起始值评价(24%)>国标三级标准评价(21%).      

Effects of experimental protocol on global vegetation model accuracy: A comparison of simulated and observed vegetation patterns for Asia

Prognostic vegetation models have been widely used to study the interactions between environmental change and biological systems. This study examines the sensitivity of vegetation model simulations to: (i) the selection of input climatologies representing different time periods and their associated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, (ii) the choice of observed vegetation data for evaluating the model results, and (iii) the methods used to compare simulated and observed vegetation. We use vegetation simulated for Asia by the equilibrium vegetation model BIOME4 as a typical example of vegetation model output. BIOME4 was run using 19 different climatologies and their associated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. The Kappa statistic, Fuzzy Kappa statistic and a newly developed map-comparison method, the Nomad index, were used to quantify the agreement between the biomes simulated under each scenario and the observed vegetation from three different global land- and tree-cover data sets: the global Potential Natural Vegetation data set (PNV), the Global Land Cover Characteristics data set (GLCC), and the Global Land Cover Facility data set (GLCF). The results indicate that the 30-year mean climatology (and its associated atmospheric CO₂ concentration) for the time period immediately preceding the collection date of the observed vegetation data produce the most accurate vegetation simulations when compared with all three observed vegetation data sets. The study also indicates that the BIOME4-simulated vegetation for Asia more closely matches the PNV data than the other two observed vegetation data sets. Given the same observed data, the accuracy assessments of the BIOME4 simulations made using the Kappa, Fuzzy Kappa and Nomad index map-comparison methods agree well when the compared vegetation types consist of a large number of spatially continuous grid cells. The results of this analysis can assist model users in designing experimental protocols for simulating vegetation.     

Determine the most influencing stressors and the most susceptible resources for environmental integrated assessment

The paper presents a method to determine the most influencing stressors and the most susceptible resources for complex assessment problems involving multiple stressors impacting multiple resources over a region. The method is based on the concept of limiting priorities in a square matrix which capture the transmission of influence along all paths between stressors and resources in the matrix. The proposed method allows the relationship between stressors and resources to be looked at in both univariate and multivariate fashion, taking into account the interactions among the variables. Hypothetical and case study examples are given for illustration purpose. It shows that the proposed method is suitable for the determination of the most important stressors and the most susceptible resources, a common (but often uneasy) task in integrated environmental assessment.     

AHP在概率风险评价中的应用

专家估计是 PRA的一个重要数据来源 ,为得到可信的估计值 ,分析人员要选择多个专家并对其估计进行综合。对影响专家估计的因素建立了层次模型 ,用 AHP对几个专家的估计进行了分析 ,给出其合理的权值 ,并进行了简单的灵敏度分析     

A SIMPLE METHOD FOR ESTIMATING BASEFLOW AT UNGAGED LOCATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Baseflow, or water that enters a stream from slowly varying sources such as ground water, can be critical to humans and ecosystems. We evaluate a simple method for estimating base‐flow parameters at ungaged sites. The method uses one or more baseflow discharge measurements at the ungaged site and longterm streamflow data from a nearby gaged site. A given baseflow parameter, such as the median, is estimated as the product of the corresponding gage site parameter and the geometric mean of the ratios of the measured baseflow discharges and the concurrent discharges at the gage site. If baseflows at gaged and ungaged sites have a bivariate lognormal distribution with high correlation and nearly equal log variances, the estimated baseflow parameters are very accurate. We tested the proposed method using long‐term streamflow data from two watershed pairs in the Driftless Area of southwestern Wisconsin. For one watershed pair, the theoretical assumptions are well met; for the other the log‐variances are substantially different. In the first case, the method performs well for estimating both annual and long‐term baseflow parameters. In the second, the method performs remarkably well for estimating annual mean and annual median baseflow discharge, but less well for estimating the annual lower decile and the long‐term mean, median, and lower decile. In general, the use of four measurements in a year is not substantially better than the use of two.     

秦皇岛市生态环境景观生态学研究

运用景观分类与评价、景观结构与功能分析、景观生态安全格局判断等景观生态学原理和方法对秦皇岛市生态环境进行了研究,结果表明:秦皇岛景观类型丰富独特,景观空间格局对主要生态过程有重要影响,对1986～1996年间景观变化定量分析的结查显示由于人工干扰指数的提高,使自然景现类型数量减少,并出现破碎化,从而降低了景观多样性和景观优势度,易导致系统的生产力、稳定性、自维持性趋向于降低。     

流域开发规划环境影响评价的战略意义——以岷江上游紫坪铺水库工程与都江堰保护问题为例

文章在分析岷江上游水电开发规划与流域环境问题的基础上提出对都江堰美学、经济、文化价值的再认识和对其进行保护的基本要求,讨论了紫坪铺水库工程与都江堰保护的战略抉择问题,并论述了流域开发规划环境影响评价的重要意义。     

Occurrence of organic pollutants in recovered soil fines from construction and demolition waste

The objective of this study was to characterize recovered soil fines from construction and demolition (C&D) waste recycling facilities for trace organic pollutants. Over a period of 18 months, five sampling trips were made to 14 C&D waste recycling facilities in Florida. Screened soil fines were collected from older stockpiles and newly generated piles at the sites. The samples were analyzed for the total concentration (mg/kg) of a series of volatile organic compound (VOCs) and semi-volatile organic compounds (semi-VOCs). The synthetic precipitation leaching procedure (SPLP) test was also performed to evaluate the leachability of the trace organic chemicals. During the total analysis only a few volatile organic compounds were commonly found in the samples (trichlorofluoromethane, toluene, 4-isopropyltoluene, trimethylbenzene, xylenes, and methylene chloride). A total of nine VOCs were detected in the leaching test. Toluene showed the highest leachability among the compounds (61.3-92.0%), while trichlorofluoromethane, the most commonly detected compound from both the total and leaching tests, resulted in the lowest leachability (1.4-39.9%). For the semi-VOC analysis, three base-neutral semi-VOC compounds (bis(2-ethylhexyl)phthalate, butyl benzyl phthalate, and di-n-butyl phthalate) and several PAHs (acenaphthene, pyrene, fluoranthene, and phenanthrene) were commonly detected in C&D fines samples. These compounds also leached during the SPLP leaching test (0.1-25%). No acid extractable compounds, pesticides, or PCBs were detected. The results of this study were further investigated to assess risk from land applied recovered soil fines by comparing total and leaching concentrations of recovered soil fines samples to risk-based standards. The results of this indicate that the organic chemicals in recovered soil fines from C&D debris recycling facilities were not of a major concern in terms of human risk and leaching risk to groundwater under reuse and contact scenarios.