基于三角模糊理论的尾矿库风险评价研究

根据尾矿库的特点和我国现行的尾矿库安全生产监督管理法律法规及标准规范的要求,构建了尾矿库风险评价指标体系。综合考虑评价指标对风险发生可能性及后果严重程度的不同影响来确定指标权重,同时考虑到权重确定和指标赋值中的模糊性和不确定性等问题,选用三角模糊理论建立了尾矿库风险评价模型,并以本溪某尾矿库为例进行说明。理论分析和实例计算表明,该方法对尾矿库风险评价有很好的适用性。     

环境风险评价内涵与外延研究

在简要介绍环境风险评价(Environmental Risk Assessment,ERA)发展历程的基础上,总结现阶段国内外普遍采用的ERA定义,深入分析ERA的内涵和类型,在重新给出涵盖性更全面的ERA定义的同时,对3种评价内容的评价程序和评价方法进行了横向比较。收集整理了ERA的研究进展和应用现状,从时间、范畴和应用范围3个方面划定了ERA的外延。     

健康风险暴露评价研究进展

综述了国内外健康风险暴露评价的最新研究进展,重点讨论了对人体进行直接监测的生物监测技术和对环境中污染因子进行间接监测并利用数学模型进行暴露剂量计算的间接方法。生物监测方法通过测定人体生理介质(如血液、尿液)中的污染物质及其代谢产物含量确定人体对环境污染物的暴露情况,监测结果反映了风险因子通过所有暴露途径进入人体的总暴露剂量。为了利用生物监测结果评价人体暴露安全性,近几年建立了生物监测等效值的概念,推导确定化学物质的生物监测等效值发展迅速。环境监测和数学模型间接方法通过对不同暴露媒介中风险因子的浓度监测和特定暴露途径的量化研究,同时利用精确的暴露计算模型(如空气分散模型、地下水扩散模型)计算人体对污染物的暴露剂量。生物监测和环境监测技术及数学模型的发展使健康风险评价和管理的暴露参数更加精确,降低了风险评价的不确定性。还介绍了利用数学模拟和剂量重建等方法插补历史空白暴露数据的方法。     

基于模糊熵和非对称贴近度的安全预警评估方法

针对系统安全风险评估和预警过程中,系统安全特性和各预警因素所存在的模糊不确定性问题,将熵理论和模糊数学相结合,提出一种基于模糊熵和非对称贴近度的系统安全预警评估方法。在建立系统安全预警评估指标体系的基础上,首先,分析基于模糊熵理论确定预警指标权重的可行性,给出系统预警指标赋权算法;其次,建立基于模糊非对称贴近度确定系统安全等级的过程,第三,给出系统安全预警评估的具体计算步骤;最后,以人为因素系统的安全预警评估为例进行方法的实例验证。实例分析结果表明采用该方法所确定的系统预警指标权重更加符合客观实际,能有效解决系统安全预警评估中存在的模糊不确定性问题,系统预警决策结果合理有效。     

天然气管道完整性管理探析

通过对国内外天然气管道事故的统计和分析,指出了对天然气管道进行完整性管理的重要性;在此基础上,简要介绍了管道完整性管理方法,着重探讨了天然气管道完整性管理的流程和环节,包括管道潜在危害辨识、管道数据信息搜集与分析、管道风险评价、管道完整性评价、完整性评价响应和减缓措施,并进一步说明了天然气管道完整性管理的实施方法;最后,给出了在我国开展天然气管道完整性管理的必要性和建议.     

城市轨道交通火灾事故风险评估及对策措施

运用故障树安全评价的方法和火灾风险评估中的定量分析方法,以人员安全为出发点,对轨道交通运营过程火灾事故风险进行评估。并对重庆市轻轨2号线临江门车站进行紧急情况下人员疏散计算,判断轻轨临江门车站发生火灾等紧急事故时,能否确保乘客的人身安全。结合轨道交通现状给出相应对策措施,降低事故发生的可能性,确保乘客生命安全和财产不受损失。     

化工园区安全规划方法与应用研究

如何进行科学合理的园区安全规划,整体上提高化工园区的安全水平,是当前化工园区发展过程中的一个关键问题。中国安全生产科学研究院研发的化工园区定量风险评价(QRA)技术及其软件通过化工园区各类事故后果计算、事故概率分析获得园区个人风险、社会风险和安全容量等园区整体性风险评价结果,可用于园区选址规划、园区布局规划、园区企业准入规划和园区安全生产一体化规划等,为化工园区土地使用安全规划提供了实用技术方法,在国内几十个化工园区推广应用,取得了良好实际应用效果。     

生态系统健康与环境管理

环境管理和生态系统健康是密不可分的,生态系统健康是环境管理的目的,生态系统健康为环境管理提供了新的思路、新的方法,健康的生态系统为实现区域可持续发展提供技术支撑和发展基础.生态系统健康的发展演替过程是优化环境管理的步骤.优化的环境管理为生态系统健康发展提供宏观决策和社会经济保障.本文从学科发展的角度论述了生态系统健康产生的背景、理论基础和应用途径;从学科交叉的角度论述了生态系统健康的评价和与环境管理的关系.提出了环境管理的目标:健康的生态系统→健康的环境→健康的食品→健康的人类生态系统→健康的社会发展.     

Citizen feedback in a fragile setting: social accountability interventions in the primary healthcare sector in Sierra Leone

Fragile and conflict‐affected states are frequently characterised by their inability to fulfil three core governance functions: provision of security, effective delivery of basic public goods and services, and managing political participation and accountability. This article explores the utility of social accountability interventions in fragile environments. Successful social accountability interventions can lead to joint examinations of public service standards by service‐users and providers, resulting in collaborative improvement efforts. The few available studies of such interventions implemented in fragile or conflict‐affected states show reasons for optimism as well as challenges. This article advocates the continued use of social accountability methods in fragile settings and provides examples of social accountability interventions in the health sector in Sierra Leone. The study suggests that social accountability can improve interaction between citizens and public service providers. Successful social accountability interventions can also lead to better quality and more accessible public services, which, in turn, can enhance state legitimacy.     

Do trace metal(loid)s in road soils pose health risks to tourists? A case of a highly-visited national park in China

Nowadays, more people tend to spend their recreational time in large national parks, and trace metal(loid)s in soils have attracted long-term attention due to their possible harm to human health. To investigate the pollution levels, potential sources and health risks of trace metal(loid)s in road soils, a total of eight trace metal(loid)s (including As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, Zn and Hg) from 47 soil samples along roads were studied in the Huangshan National Park in Southeast China. The results showed that the concentrations of As, Cd, Pb, Zn and Hg appeared different degrees of pollution compared with their corresponding background values. According to the pollution indices, Hg and Cd were recognized as significant pollutants presenting moderate to high ecological risk. Combining principal component analysis and positive matrix factorization model, the results showed that traffic, industrial, agricultural and natural sources were the potential origins of trace metal(loid)s in this area, with contribution rates of 39.93%, 25.92%, 10.53% and 23.62%, respectively. Non-carcinogenic risks were all negligible, while the carcinogenic risk of As was higher than the limit (1 $\times$ 10⁻⁶). Moreover, children were more susceptible to trace metal(loid)s by ingestion which appeared to be a more important exposure pathway than dermal contact and inhalation. The contribution rates of different sources to non-carcinogenic risks and carcinogenic risks were similar among children and adults, while traffic and industrial sources have a significant impact on health risks. This study will give more insights to control the environmental risks of trace metal(loid)s in national parks.