机载雷达天线对飞机雷击附着点影响研究

飞机的雷击附着点是飞机防雷设计研究的基础,是飞机设计中的重要过程。本文以伊尔-76飞机模型为例,依据SAE-ARP5416和国内相关标准规定的雷击附着点试验方法,采用基于传输线矩阵法的数值仿真技术对飞机的雷击附着特性展开研究,分析了机载雷达天线对飞机雷击附着点的影响,为机载雷达天线的雷电防护设计提供了理论基础。     

攀枝花市城市基础设施与土地收益关联度分析

以攀枝花市为例,综合运用GIS空间分析技术和变异系数权重分析、灰色关联度等方法建立了城市基础设施与土地收益的关联度模型,定量分析城市基础设施与土地收益的关联关系,揭示两者间的关联规律和作用机理.结果表明：①城市基础与土地收益存在较大关联性;②城市基础设施与土地收益关联度在时间序列上具有明显的波动性且呈周期性变化;③城市基础设施与土地收益关联度在空间上呈分异特征.     

力限振动试验技术应用与研究

首先介绍传统加速度振动试验产生过试验的主要原因;接着介绍机械阻抗特性,给出视在质量、有效质量及剩余质量的定义;然后通过对复杂二自由度方法进行理论推导,给出力限试验条件的制定方法;最后以铝板为例,建立典型力限控制试验方案,提出力限试验方法及试验步骤。从试验结果看,力限控制试验方法是缓解试件过试验的一种有效方法。     

基于结构方程的旅游环境承载系统耦合关联与作用机理

构建旅游环境承载力评价体系,运用耦合度指数和结构方程模型揭示山东半岛蓝色经济区旅游环境承载系统的耦合演化规律和动态关联特征.研究表明,半岛蓝色经济区7市各子系统的承载指数均呈增长态势,各承载子系统之间存在耦合作用,协调发展水平均稳步上升,生态承载子系统对经济承载子系统产生正影响,社会承载子系统可通过生态承载子系统对经济承载子系统产生正向影响力.     

The impact of heat waves on daily mortality in Belgrade (Serbia) during summer

In this paper, we are dealing with two extreme events in temperature and population – heat wave and mortality. Our aim is to assess the relation between high temperatures and daily mortality counts during the summer months in the period 2000–2010 in Belgrade (Serbia). In order to establish this connection, we used Poisson regression and two different measures of heat wave: Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) and apparent temperature (T _app). As mean daily temperature increases over 90th, 95th and 99th percentiles, average number of deaths increases for 15.3% (p?<?.01), 22.4% (p?<?.05) and 32.0% (insignificant for p?<?.1). We tested three different thresholds (90th, 95th, 99th) for WSDI and T _app in order to separate the hottest heat-wave episodes. On average, mortality is higher than expected for 13.4%, 16.7% and 28.3% (90th, 95th and 99th percentiles for WSDI) and 16.1%, 17.3% and 32.5% (90th, 95th and 99th percentiles for T _app). Estimated mortality excess with heat-wave indices is in accordance with regression output, meaning that WSDI and T _app are good tools for heat-wave identification. During the most severe episode in July 2007, absolute temperature maximum (43.6°C) and daily maximum mortality counts (94 dead) were recorded in the same day (24 July 2007).     

Modelling individual preferences for environmental policy drivers: Empirical evidence of Italian lifestyle changes using a latent class approach

Degraded air quality severely affects the health of citizens worldwide. The design of effective policies requires exploring public preferences for environmental and air quality policy instruments. Within the EC-FP7 SEFIRA project, using a choice experiment that stresses the trade-offs between attributes, this study investigates public preferences for environmental policy drivers in Italy. The main objective is to investigate the role played by selected policy drivers in determining policy preferences, complemented by elasticity and willingness to pay estimations. Preference heterogeneity and the role of socio-economic and attitudinal variables are explored with a latent class model over 2400 respondents sampled across Italy. The results allow identifying the different role played by the policy drivers across the classes. It emerged that most of the respondents (43%) are particularly sensitive to the cost components (cost sensitive respondents). The remaining respondents instead show an important sensitivity towards personal engagement in term of changes in the mobility and eating habits (lifestyle-change sensitive respondents). However, while 29% of them perceive these habits’ changes as negatively impacting on the personal utility, the other 28% of respondents translate the potential changes in the habitual behaviour of driving and eating as environmental and health benefits. Based on the modelling results, potential policies are simulated reporting respondents’ reaction to selected scenarios. It shows the crucial role played by reduction of premature deaths due to atmospheric pollution and measure cost.     

可持续发展环境约束条件下的水资源最优配置及实证研究

在相关理论分析和Weber模型的基础上。拓展建立了面向水资源可持续发展的水资源最优配置模型。引入了基于政府管制的影响作用、沿河流域的水用户的实际消耗水量、实际排放水量、河流中可供使用水量及所排放污水水质水平等5个变量函数．通过政府管制下的水质和水量的河道内流量需求等环境约束条件．确保水资源利用始终满足最小基流水量。通过求量优解，计算得出在环境约束下达到最优配置时各个变量函数与对下游地区外部性之间的相关性。接着。本文对陕北黄土高原沿Y河的35家企业进行了实际调查．收集了2个年度共8个季度的观测值，应用计量经济Pand Data模型。对35个节点、8个季度的共280个数据作为混合样本进行经济计量分析。验证了相关结论。最后。还提出一些制定环境约束条件以及水用户间建立水资源环境生态补偿金机制等政策建议。     

The Impact of Increased Environmental Stochasticity Due to Climate Change on the Dynamics of Asiatic Wild Ass

Abstract:  Theory proposes that increased environmental stochasticity negatively impacts population viability. Thus, in addition to the directional changes predicted for weather parameters under global climate change (GCC), the increase in variance of these parameters may also have a negative effect on biodiversity. As a case study, we assessed the impact of interannual variance in precipitation on the viability of an Asiatic wild ass ( Equus hemionus ) population reintroduced in Makhtesh Ramon Nature Reserve, Israel. We monitored the population from 1985 to 1999 to determine what environmental factors affect reproductive success. Annual precipitation during the year before conception, drought conditions during gestation, and population size determined reproductive success. We used the parameters derived from this model to assess population performance under various scenarios in a Leslie matrix type model with demographic and environmental stochasticity. Specifically, we used a change in the precipitation regime in our study area to formulate a GCC scenario and compared the simulated dynamics of the population with a no-change scenario. The coefficient of variation in population size under the global change scenario was 30% higher than under the no-change scenario. Minor die-offs (≥15%) following droughts increased extinction probability nearly 10-fold. Our results support the idea that an increase in environmental stochasticity due to GCC may, in itself, pose a significant threat to biodiversity.     

烟台市宏观经济动态投入产出模型

该模型具有长期经济协调预测、优化和模拟的功能,它将国民经济分为16个部门,充分考虑了影响国民经济各部门变化的主要因素,在供需、资金、流入流出、水资源、环境等均衡约束条件下,以 1990年不变价格,采用线性规划方法,逐年滚动优化预测了1991～2020年烟台市国民经济发展的趋势、产业结构和规模等各项指标。