民族地区农村信息化与农民收入关系研究——基于恩施州利川市调研结果的实证分析

运用对国家民委的863科技项目推广点之一的湖北恩施自治州利川市的调研数据,采用多变量回归和Logistic回归模型对信息化与农村经济发展、特别是与农民收入之间的关系进行实证分析,结果表明:信息化与农民收入有着正相关的关系;农民的收入结构与信息化、农民的文化程度也有着密切的关系。     

Model evaluation of the phytoextraction potential of heavy metal hyperaccumulators and non-hyperaccumulators

Evaluation of the remediation ability of zinc/cadmium in hyper- and non-hyperaccumulator plant species through greenhouse studies is limited. To bridge the gap between greenhouse studies and field applications for phytoextraction, we used published data to examine the partitioning of heavy metals between plants and soil (defined as the bioconcentration factor). We compared the remediation ability of the Zn/Cd hyperaccumulators Thlaspi caerulescens and Arabidopsis halleri and the non-hyperaccumulators Nicotiana tabacum and Brassica juncea using a hierarchical linear model (HLM). A recursive algorithm was then used to evaluate how many harvest cycles were required to clean a contaminated site to meet Taiwan Environmental Protection Agency regulations. Despite the high bioconcentration factor of both hyperaccumulators, metal removal was still limited because of the plants' small biomass. Simulation with N. tabacum and the Cadmium model suggests further study and development of plants with high biomass and improved phytoextraction potential for use in environmental cleanup.     

An analysis of assessment outcomes from eight years' operation of the Australian border weed risk assessment system

The majority of Australian weeds are exotic plant species that were intentionally introduced for a variety of horticultural and agricultural purposes. A border weed risk assessment system (WRA) was implemented in 1997 in order to reduce the high economic costs and massive environmental damage associated with introducing serious weeds. We review the behaviour of this system with regard to eight years of data collected from the assessment of species proposed for importation or held within genetic resource centres in Australia. From a taxonomic perspective, species from the Chenopodiaceae and Poaceae were most likely to be rejected and those from the Arecaceae and Flacourtiaceae were most likely to be accepted. Dendrogram analysis and classification and regression tree (TREE) models were also used to analyse the data. The latter revealed that a small subset of the 35 variables assessed was highly associated with the outcome of the original assessment. The TREE model examining all of the data contained just five variables: unintentional human dispersal, congeneric weed, weed elsewhere, tolerates or benefits from mutilation, cultivation or fire, and reproduction by vegetative propagation. It gave the same outcome as the full WRA model for 71% of species. Weed elsewhere was not the first splitting variable in this model, indicating that the WRA has a capacity for capturing species that have no history of weediness. A reduced TREE model (in which human-mediated variables had been removed) contained four variables: broad climate suitability, reproduction in less or than equal to 1year, self-fertilisation, and tolerates and benefits from mutilation, cultivation or fire. It yielded the same outcome as the full WRA model for 65% of species. Data inconsistencies and the relative importance of questions are discussed, with some recommendations made for improving the use of the system.     

Land use planning and wildfire risk mitigation: an analysis of wildfire-burned subdivisions using high-resolution remote sensing imagery and GIS data

This paper evaluates risk factors that influence the probability that a house will burn from wildfire. A logistic regression is used to analyse data processed from pre-fire and post-fire IKONOS images and other geo-referenced data. The dependent variable is the probability that a given house will burn. A total of 12 independent variables are evaluated: vegetation density; area of defensible space; adjacency of a parcel to public lands; proximity of a house to fire station; road width; road type; parcel size; subdivision morphology; assessed value; elevation; slope and aspect. Model results generally support dominant land use planning and design strategies for wildfire risk reduction including vegetation treatments, site selection with respect to topography, and improving access to fire stations.     

Survivor needs or logistical convenience? Factors shaping decisions to deliver relief to earthquake‐affected communities,Pakistan 2005–06

In Bureaucratizing the Good Samaritan , Waters (2001) argues that bureaucratic rationality distracts humanitarian agencies from the needs of the people they are supposed to assist, in favour of other values that their institutional frameworks dictate. We test his claim by investigating the response to the Pakistan 2005 earthquake. One of us (Dittemore) worked with the United Nations Joint Logistics Centre in the theatre, managing a relief cargo shipment database. The response, known as 'Operation Winter Race', was hampered by extreme logistical challenges, but ultimately succeeded in averting a second disaster resulting from cold and starvation. We use statistical models to probe whether survivor needs significantly guided decisions to deliver relief to affected communities. Needs assessments remained incomplete and incoherent. We measure needs through proxy indicators and integrate them, on a Geographic Information System (GIS) platform, with logistics and relief delivery data. We find that, despite strong logistics effects, needs orientations were significant. However, the strength of decision factors varies between commodity types (food versus clothing and shelter versus reconstruction materials) as well as over the different phases of the response. This study confirms Thomas's observation that logistics databases are rich 'repositories of data that can be analyzed to provide post-event learning' (Thomas, 2003, p. 4). This article is an invitation for others to engage in creative humanitarian data management.     

南京河西地区岩土体剪切波速与土层深度的关系

南京河西地区是南京市重点开发的新市区,该区域工程地质条件相似,主要为长江高河漫滩地质地貌单元。本文选取该地区47个典型钻孔的岩土体剪切波速资料,采用三种数学模型进行统计回归分析,运用相关系数R(或测定系数R2)检验Vs—H之间的线性相关关系,并根据计算的SD值选择较优的数学模型。统计结果表明,该地区各类岩土体的Vs—H线性相关关系显著,说明采用上述数学模型进行Vs—H回归是可行的。对两个工程场地进行剪切波速预测,并对场地类别作出划分,检验结果表明,该地区各类岩土体的Vs—H经验关系是可靠的,符合当地岩土特征,在样本深度范围内有足够的工程应用精度,可以应用。     

Outlier identification and visualization for Pb concentrations in urban soils and its implications for identification of potential contaminated land

Outliers in urban soil geochemical databases may imply potential contaminated land. Different methodologies which can be easily implemented for the identification of global and spatial outliers were applied for Pb concentrations in urban soils of Galway City in Ireland. Due to its strongly skewed probability feature, a Box–Cox transformation was performed prior to further analyses. The graphic methods of histogram and box-and-whisker plot were effective in identification of global outliers at the original scale of the dataset. Spatial outliers could be identified by a local indicator of spatial association of local Moran's I, cross-validation of kriging, and a geographically weighted regression. The spatial locations of outliers were visualised using a geographical information system. Different methods showed generally consistent results, but differences existed. It is suggested that outliers identified by statistical methods should be confirmed and justified using scientific knowledge before they are properly dealt with.     

Assessment Tools for Urban Catchments: Defining Observable Biological Potential1

Abstract: Urbanization represents a strong and increasingly more prevalent impact on stream quality worldwide. One of the characteristic effects of increased urbanization is a consistent decline in biological stream condition. The characterization of this biological degradation with increasing urbanization presents a number of advantages for the study and management of urban streams and catchments. In this paper, the limitation of biological condition with urbanization, called observed biological potential, is characterized. Using an urban intensity index and a biological index developed specifically for urban systems in the Baltimore, Maryland; Cleveland, Ohio; and San Jose, California regions, two principal techniques were compared (quantile regression and bin regression) to define observed biological potential along urban gradients. Quantile regression was selected as the preferable tool for describing observed biological potential given the consistency with which it can be applied and its statistical efficiency, however, bin quantile regression performed similarly. Having identified a numeric approximation of observed biological potential, two methods for identifying factors related to distance from potential as a way of identifying critical environmental factors affecting biological condition in urban areas were explored. The results of this work can be used for identifying benchmarks for urban stream biological condition, identifying limiting catchment characteristics, and prioritizing urban stream management efforts.     

Modeling perceived collision risk in port water navigation

An increase in the likelihood of navigational collisions in port waters has put focus on the collision avoidance process in port traffic safety. The most widely used on-board collision-avoidance system is the automatic radar plotting aid which is a passive warning system that triggers an alert based on the pilot’s pre-defined indicators of distance and time proximities at the closest point of approaches in encounters with nearby vessels. To better help pilot in decision making in close quarter situations, collision risk should be considered as a continuous monotonic function of the proximities and risk perception should be considered probabilistically. This paper derives an ordered probit regression model to study perceived collision risks. To illustrate the procedure, the risks perceived by Singapore port pilots were obtained to calibrate the regression model. The results demonstrate that a framework based on the probabilistic risk assessment model can be used to give a better understanding of collision risk and to define a more appropriate level of evasive actions.     

基于回归分析的火灾发生气象因子的研究

利用二元回归分析法,对火灾发生次数、空气湿度、风速进行回归分析并检验,得出了火灾发生次数、空气湿度、风速三者之间的显著线性关系。