后疫情时期全国碳市场政策对经济和排放的影响

新冠肺炎疫情暴发一年多以来,国际国内形势仍面临极大不确定性。疫情显著降低了短期排放水平,但是经济恢复政策和疫情发展形势的不确定使得对未来经济发展和碳排放的判断变得复杂,碳排放是否会反弹对实现《巴黎协定》目标造成挑战,已经投入运行的全国碳市场能多大程度发挥政策效果等问题值得关注。本文首先定量评估了疫情对经济和环境的短期和长期的影响,基于此分析疫情后全国碳市场政策的实施效果。结果显示:疫情造成中国经济活动以及碳排放短期显著下降,2020年中国全年的GDP增长较基准情景下降3.84%,能源消费和碳排放分别较基准情景下降4.47%和5.12%。但是,接下来的十年内,GDP会逐渐恢复至基准情景,累计碳排放较基准情景增加0.06%。在没有其他气候政策干预的情况下,疫情带来的短期减排效应不足以保障中国各项气候目标的实现,落实碳市场政策十分必要。疫情之后启动全国碳市场,可以促进投资、减少能源使用和碳排放,到2030年,能源消费将下降7.44%,碳排放下降10.49%,碳价为229.73元/t。国外疫情若在2021年还不能得到控制,将会继续影响中国的对外贸易,使得中国GDP损失略有提高,但不会改变国内疫情之后经济恢复的大趋势。     

新型防突装置对封隔器胶筒力学性能影响研

为了进一步保证封隔器安全坐封,提高封隔器胶筒的力学性能,基于现有成熟技术,设计了一种新型防突装置,分析了不同防突装置材料和结构参数对封隔器胶筒肩部突出、接触应力、Von Mises应力的影响。结果表明:新型封隔器肩部突出距离相比常规封隔器降低了63.35%,使胶筒不易被破坏,延长了胶筒的寿命;对防突装置材料和结构参数进行优选,选择材料为铝合金,距胶筒端面距离H=2.5mm,厚度B=0.5mm的新型防突装置;新型防突装置的设计与应用为封隔器坐封提供了安全保障。     

天然气水合物水力提升中继舱舱体沉积安全性分析

针对天然气水合物水力提升过程中中继舱部件的沉积安全性问题,为了避免中继舱因沉积过多而导致整个提升系统的瘫痪,利用流场模拟软件CFD,分析了不同结构对中继舱内部流场的影响,对比了正方体、球体和圆柱体3种不同中继舱结构下的颗粒沉积情况、内部流速分布、粗细颗粒以及海水体积分数分布情况,得出圆柱体结构的安全性要优于另外两种结构。研究了圆柱体结构在不同工况下的沉积情况与安全性。结果表明:增加粗颗粒浓度,粗颗粒直径以及粗颗粒的密度都会导致中继舱沉积厚度增加,安全性降低,而增加进口速度则会导致中继舱沉积厚度减小,安全性有所提高。     

再生自然资源代际可持续利用的经济分析与制度安排--以渔业资源为例

自然资源由于其较强的公共性和外部性而使其因代际问题所导致的私有市场失灵比一般的产品严重,原因是自然资源代际利用中当代人都倾向于最大限度使用资源,从而引发自然资源“公地悲剧”问题比一般产品严重。再生自然资源虽然在代际利用中的利益冲突比非再生自然资源低,但代际问题所带来的市场失灵依然存在。因此,再生自然资源的代际可持续利用需要政府依据其经济特性进行一定的规制,制订出合理的使用制度。以渔业资源为例,在沙发尔（Schaefer）模型的基础上,利用成本——效益的经济学分析法,分析了再生自然资源代际可持续利用中的成本与收益,提出再生自然资源代际可持续使用的制度安排和优化措施,包括边际成本动态规制、明确界分所有权、实施可交易配额和公共补偿性规制。     

Application of water extract of slippery elm tree leaves as a natural reagent for selective spectrophotometric determination of trace amounts of molybdenum(VI) in environmental water samples

A novel spectrophotometric method for the determination of molybdenum(VI) by using a natural reagent, water extract of slippery elm tree leaves, is developed. Molybdenum(VI) reacts with this natural reagent to form an orange colored product. The formed product shows maximum absorbance at 418 nm with a molar absorptivity value of 0.57 × 10⁴ L mol^?1 cm^?1, and this method is linear in the 0.4–10 mg L^?1 concentration range. The detection limit value was found to be 0.0350 mg L^?1. The proposed method is simple, clean, low cost, selective, and sensitive. It was applied to the analytic samples with satisfactory results.     

Occupational exposure to airborne aromatic amines in rubber manufacturing: Determination by gas chromatography‐mass spectrometry

Aromatic amines (AAs) are used in a variety of chemical industries and consequently they are the object of great attention in occupational hygiene owing to the carcinogenic effects that many of them have shown. This work outlines a procedure for the determination of occupational exposure to airborne AAs in the rubber industry and the application of this method in a tyre manufacturing plant using p‐phenylenediamines as antiozonants. Samples were collected on a glass fibre filter followed by a silica gel tube and analyzed by GC‐MS/SIM using a capillary column coated with methyl silicone. p‐Phenylendiamines and other AAs probably formed as thermodegradation products were found in concentrations of up to 10 μg/m³ during rubber vulcanization.     

Effects of flow regimes altered by dams on survival, population declines, and range-wide losses of California river-breeding frogs

Widespread alteration of natural hydrologic patterns by large dams combined with peak demands for power and water delivery during summer months have resulted in frequent aseasonal flow pulses in rivers of western North America. Native species in these ecosystems have evolved with predictable annual flood-drought cycles; thus, their likelihood of persistence may decrease in response to disruption of the seasonal synchrony between stable low-flow conditions and reproduction. We evaluated whether altered flow regimes affected 2 native frogs in California and Oregon (U.S.A.) at 4 spatial and temporal extents. We examined changes in species distribution over approximately 50 years, current population density in 11 regulated and 16 unregulated rivers, temporal trends in abundance among populations occupying rivers with different hydrologic histories, and within-year patterns of survival relative to seasonal hydrology. The foothill yellow-legged frog (Rana boylii), which breeds only in flowing water, is more likely to be absent downstream of large dams than in free-flowing rivers, and breeding populations are on average 5 times smaller in regulated rivers than in unregulated rivers. Time series data (range = 8 - 19 years) from 5 populations of yellow-legged frogs and 2 populations of California red-legged frogs (R. draytonii) across a gradient of natural to highly artificial timing and magnitude of flooding indicate that variability of flows in spring and summer is strongly correlated with high mortality of early life stages and subsequent decreases in densities of adult females. Flow management that better mimics natural flow timing is likely to promote persistence of these species and others with similar phenology.     

Challenges to interdisciplinary research in ecosystem-based management

Despite its necessity, integration of natural and social sciences to inform conservation efforts has been difficult. We examined the views of 63 scientists and practitioners involved in marine management in Mexico's Gulf of California, the central California coast, and the western Pacific on the challenges associated with integrating social science into research efforts that support ecosystem-based management (EBM) in marine systems. We used a semistructured interview format. Questions focused on how EBM was developed for these sites and how contextual factors affected its development and outcomes. Many of the traditional challenges linked with interdisciplinary research were present in the EBM projects we studied. However, a number of contextual elements affected how mandates to include social science were interpreted and implemented as well as how easily challenges could be addressed. For example, a common challenge is that conservation organizations are often dominated by natural scientists, but for some projects it was easier to address this imbalance than for others. We also found that the management and institutional histories that came before EBM in specific cases were important features of local context. Because challenges differed among cases, we believe resolving challenges to interdisciplinary research should be context specific.     

基于空气负离子浓度的建筑室内空气清洁度评价

对深圳某办公楼部分房间的空气负离子浓度分布进行了观测研究,利用空气离子单极系数和安倍空气离子评价指数对不同设备制冷的办公室空气质量进行了评价分析。结果表明:自然通风状态下的空气清洁度比机械通风状态下高,利用可再生能源制冷技术的室内空气质量比普通空调制冷技术的好,放置负离子发生器对室内空气质量有显著提高。因此提高室内负离子浓度可以创造舒适的空气环境,并建议把空气负离子浓度列为室内环境的监测和评价指标,为今后城乡建设规划、城市林业规划和环境能源保护提供科学依据和设计思路。     

天然沸石对农田退水中氨氮的去除

利用静态吸附实验研究了沸石颗粒大小、氨氮初始浓度、接触时间及Na+离子浓度等因素对天然白银沸石去除模拟黄灌区农田退水中氨氮(NH4+-N)效果的影响,同时研究了吸附等温线特征,并考察了其吸附机理.研究结果表明,沸石颗粒大小、接触时间及NH4+和Na+初始浓度对NH4+-N交换容量都会产生一定影响;根据复相关系数(R2),NH4+-N的吸附等温线更符合三参数等温线模型;而对于两参数等温线模型,Langmuir模型比Freundlich模型能更好地描述NH4+-N在天然沸石上的离子交换过程;NH4+-N吸附实验数据与Elovich模型拟合最好(R2≥0.9766).研究结果表明了天然白银沸石是一种适合NH4+-N去除的离子交换剂,可用于黄灌区农田退水中NH4+-N的去除.