Long-Term Ecosystem Dynamics in the Serengeti: Lessons for Conservation

Abstract:  Data from long-term ecological studies further understanding of ecosystem dynamics and can guide evidence-based management. In a quasi-natural experiment we examined long-term monitoring data on different components of the Serengeti-Mara Ecosystem to trace the effects of disturbances and thus to elucidate cause-and-effect connections between them. The long-term data illustrated the role of food limitation in population regulation in mammals, particularly in migratory wildebeest and nonmigratory buffalo. Predation limited populations of smaller resident ungulates and small carnivores. Abiotic events, such as droughts and floods, created disturbances that affected survivorship of ungulates and birds. Such disturbances showed feedbacks between biotic and abiotic realms. Interactions between elephants and their food allowed savanna and grassland communities to co-occur. With increased woodland vegetation, predators' capture of prey increased. Anthropogenic disturbances had direct (hunting) and indirect (transfer of disease to wildlife) effects. Slow and rapid changes and multiple ecosystem states became apparent only over several decades and involved events at different spatial scales. Conservation efforts should accommodate both infrequent and unpredictable events and long-term trends. Management should plan on the time scale of those events and should not aim to maintain the status quo. Systems can be self-regulating through food availability and predator-prey interactions; thus, culling may not be required. Ecosystems can occur in multiple states; thus, there may be no a priori need to maintain one natural state. Finally, conservation efforts outside protected areas must distinguish between natural change and direct human-induced change. Protected areas can act as ecological baselines in which human-induced change is kept to a minimum     

A general model for tagging on multiple component fisheries: an integration of age-dependent reporting rates and mortality estimation

A major objective of analyzing multiple year tag return data in fisheries is to estimate fishing and natural mortality rates which may vary by age class and calendar year. To do this one needs to be able to estimate the reporting rates for the tags recovered. Some fisheries such as that for Southern Bluefin Tuna (Thunnus maccoyii) have multiple components with potentially different reporting rates for the tag returns. In this paper we develop a general model for multi-cohort, multi-year tag return analyses where there are multiple components to the fishery with potentially different reporting rates. We require the assumption that one component has a reporting rate of 100% (i.e., this could be the component of a boat based fishery where scientific observers are present). We show further how it is possible to partition the overall likelihood developed into two conditionally independent components. The first component of the likelihood is the standard multinomial likelihood that allows estimation of fishing and natural mortality rates. It uses the tag return matrix summed over all the components of the fishery. It requires an average reporting rate for the tag returns (where the average reporting rate is a weighted average of the individual reporting rates of the different components). The second component is also multinomial for the individual component tag returns and allows us to estimate individual component reporting rates. However, this requires that we augment our second component tag return likelihood with a catch data likelihood for the corresponding components. The methodology is illustrated on some Southern Bluefin Tuna tagging and catch data. We also discuss important model assumptions and give suggestions for future research including the integration of tag-return and catch at age data analyses.     

改性天然沸石去除水中氨氮的研究

分别采用NaCl、KCl和CaCl2对黑龙江省某市天然沸石进行改性，考察了pH值、氨氮初始浓度以及温度对改性沸石交换性能的影响，并对改性沸石的交换动力学进行了研究。结果表明，NaCl和KCl改性对沸石原矿交换容量有不同程度提高，而KCl改性后容量有所降低。pH、NH4初始浓度以及温度对交换性能有明显影响，pH6．0附近沸石交换容量最大；NH4初始浓度越高，反应速度越快，相同初始浓度下，钾型沸石交换速度较快，而沸石原矿交换速度最慢。采用Langmuir型离子交换等温线进行非线性回归的结果显示，低温有利于交换反应的进行。溶液中NH4^＋在改性沸石上的离子交换反应可采用Vermeulen模型描述，沸石原矿拟合相关系数较差。改性沸石多次再生后，其交换容量均有所降低。     

石油天然气勘探开发环境保护立法的法律思考

文章根据石油天然气勘探开发的实际情况,对石油天然气生产、储存、集输过程中的污染防治和生态环境保护进行了深入的研究,提出了相应的法律措施和手段.     

再生胶工业废气的生物法净化研究

采用生物法废气净化技术净化治理橡胶再生低浓度有机废气 ,工业试验装置连续运行 10 0d的结果显示 ,其对再生胶废气中甲苯的净化效率可较长时间保持在 90 %左右 ,废气经处理后可以实现达标排放。废气处理成本约为工厂再生胶产值的 0 12 %～ 0 14% ,具有较好的技术先进性和经济合理性。后续的工程化装置连续运行并达标验收     

润滑油中橡胶5880耐老化性能研究

为了掌握润滑油中橡胶5880制品耐受情况,并进行寿命评估.采用加速老化方法,针对压缩和自由放置两种状态,分别测试分析橡胶5880在润滑油和热空气中20％恒定压缩永久变形率、拉伸强度、拉断永久变形、拉断伸长率等基本性能随时间和温度的老化衰减规律.无论是热空气还是润滑油中,橡胶5880的拉伸强度和拉断永久变形指标对热老化不敏感,无法定量表征寿命和性能之间关系,而压缩永久变形率和拉断伸长率基本符合时温等效原理.总体上,润滑油中因为屏蔽氧气,橡胶5880性能衰减更慢.同时采用指数型性能-时间衰减规律和Arrhenius公式定量描述了橡胶5880性能-时间-温度之间的关系,推算润滑油中橡胶5880密封制品的寿命约为5 a,其他不受力制品的寿命将大于25 a.     

橡胶及制品自然贮存老化行为研究进展

针对橡胶及制品自然贮存老化行为的研究现状,从宏观性能、微观结构、自然贮存试验方法等方面进行综述。其中,宏观性能主要包括力学性能和其他宏观性能两个方面;微观结构方面主要包括FTIR技术、热分析技术、SEM及XPS技术等三个方面;自然贮存试验方法方面主要是部分橡胶及制品的相关自然贮存试验规范及标准。橡胶及制品自然贮存老化行为研究应加强自然贮存试验,综合运用分析手段掌握橡胶及制品的真实老化行为,从而改善橡胶性能,延长其使用寿命。     

水体中有机污染物自然降解研究进展

水体中有机污染物的自然降解是影响污染物在环境中归趋过程的一个重要机制,一直是环境界研究的重点。归纳了水体中有机污染物自然降解的研究现状和研究方法,并以生物降解和光降解为例,指出目前在自然降解实验研究设计方面值得关注的一些问题。     

我国农业自然资源法的问题与改善途径初探

在介绍我国农业自然资源基本法律体系的基础上,分析了现行法律存在的主要问题,提出了强化农业资源管理的若干建议：①制定农业自然资源综合法律,完善农业自然资源法律体系；②更新充实现行农业自然资源法,以适应社会主义市场经济的要求；③从机制和手段两方面革新管理体制,强化农业自然资源相对统一的综合管理。     

区域农业可持续发展的生态安全及其评价研究

资源、生态环境是区域农业可持续发展的核心和基础。农业可持续发展的生态安全是指农业赖以发展的自然资源、生态环境处于一种不受威胁、没有危险的健康、平衡的状态 ,具有战略性、整体性、区域性、层次性和阶段性等特点。文章以浙江省嘉兴市为例 ,讨论了区域农业可持续发展的生态安全评价的基本过程和方法 ,提出了包括资源生态环境压力、质量和保护整治能力三方面23项指标在内的生态安全评价的指标体系 ,以及不安全指标阈值的确定和不安全指数的计算方法 ,提出了区域农业可持续发展的生态安全建设的途径和对策。