我国世界自然遗产地旅游业环境经济核算思路

目前，各级地方政府及旅游经营者对中国世界自然遗产地旅游价值的开发力度大，自然遗产地旅游经济发展异常繁荣，同时也带来了自然遗产地环境退化、资源破坏的严重后果。而用来衡量地区经济发展状况的传统旅游业经济核算结果仅体现旅游经济的增长与否及尺度，而忽略了旅游经济增长同时的环境、资源损耗。现借用SEEA 2000框架，结合中国国情，提出中国世界自然遗产地环境经济核算的框架，经过重新整合，突出优质而独具特色的自然环境部分的环境资产类在自然遗产地旅游业中的生产性资产地位，将原SEEA 2000中拆分核算的5大部分、10大步骤整合为4大部分、9大步骤，并对其当前可操作性进行了客观分析。并指出，虽然目前详尽执行世界自然遗产地环境经济核算有一定难度，但理清核算思路具有现实指导意义。     

Subjective modeling choices and the robustness of impact evaluations in conservation science

Arbitrary modeling choices are inevitable in scientific studies. Yet, few empirical studies in conservation science report the effects these arbitrary choices have on estimated results. I explored the effects of subjective modeling choices in the context of counterfactual impact evaluations. Over 5000 candidate models based on reasonable changes in the choice of statistical matching algorithms (e.g., genetic and nearest distance mahalanobis matching), the parametrization of these algorithms (e.g., number of matches), and the inclusion of specific covariates (e.g., distance to nearest city, slope, or rainfall) were valid for studying the effect of Virunga National Park in Democratic Republic of the Congo on changes in tree cover loss and carbon storage over time. I randomly picked 2000 of the 5000 candidate models to determine how much and which subjective modeling choices affected the results the most. All valid models indicated that tree cover loss decreased and carbon storage increased in Virunga National Park from 2000 to 2019. Nonetheless, the order of magnitude of the estimates varied by a factor of 3 (from −4.78 to −13.12 percentage points decrease in tree cover loss and from 20 to 46 t Ce/ha for carbon storage). My results highlight that modeling choices, notably the choice of the matching algorithm, can have significant effects on point estimates and suggest that more structured robustness checks are a key step toward more credible findings in conservation science.     

Performance assessments for the geological storage of carbon dioxide: Learning from the radioactive waste disposal experience

The geological storage of carbon dioxide is currently being considered as a possible technology for reducing emissions to atmosphere. Although there are several operational sites where carbon dioxide is stored in this way, methods for assessing the long-term performance and safety of geological storage are at an early stage of development. In this paper the similarities and differences between this field and the geological disposal of radioactive wastes are considered. Priorities are suggested for the development of performance assessment methods for carbon dioxide storage based on areas where experience from radioactive waste disposal can be usefully applied. These include, inter alia, dealing with the various types of uncertainty, using systematic methodologies to ensure an auditable and transparent assessment process, developing whole system models and gaining confidence to model the long-term system evolution by considering information from natural systems. An important area of data shortage remains the potential impacts on humans and ecosystems.     

Water Quality Changes as a Result of Coalbed Methane Development in a Rocky mountain Watershed1

Abstract: Coalbed methane (CBM) development raises serious environmental concerns. In response, concerted efforts have been made to collect chemistry, salinity, and sodicity data on CBM produced water. However, little information on changes of stream water quality resulting from directly and/or indirectly received CBM produced water is available in the literature. The objective of this study was to examine changes instream water quality, particularly sodicity and salinity, due to CBM development in the Powder River watershed, which is located in the Rocky Mountain Region and traverses the states of Wyoming and Montana. To this end, a retrospective analysis of water quality trends and patterns was conducted using data collected from as early as 1946 up to and including 2002 at four U.S. Geological Survey gauging stations along the Powder River. Trend analysis was conducted using linear regression and Seasonal Kendall tests, whereas, Tukey’s test for multiple comparisons was used to detect changes in the spatial pattern. The results indicated that the CBM development adversely affected the water quality in the Powder River. First, the development elevated the stream sodicity, as indicated by a significant increase trend of the sodium adsorption ratio. Second, the development tended to shrink the water quality differences among the three downstream stations but to widen the differences between these stations and the farthest upstream station. In contrast, the development had only a minor influence on stream salinity, as indicated by that the stream electrical conductivity exhibited either no trend or a marginally significant positive trend. Hence, the CBM development is likely an important factor that can be managed to lower the stream sodicity. The management may need to take into account that the effects of the CBM development were different from one location to another along the Powder River.     

Can natural behavior be cultivated? The farm as local human/animal culture

Although the notion of natural behavior occurs in many policy-making and legal documents on animal welfare, no consensus has been reached concerning its definition. This paper argues that one reason why the notion resists unanimously accepted definition is that natural behavior is not properly a biological concept, although it aspires to be one, but rather a philosophical tendency to perceive animal behavior in accordance with certain dichotomies between nature and culture, animal and human, original orders and invented artifacts. The paper scrutinizes the philosophy of natural behavior as it developed in the organic movement in response to a perceived contrast between industrialized and traditional agriculture. There are two reasons for focusing on the organic movement: (i) the emphasis on “the natural” is most accentuated there and has a long history, (ii) everyday life on organic farms presupposes human/animal interplay, which conflicts with the philosophical tendency to separate nature from culture. This mismatch between theory and practice helps us see why, and how, the philosophy of natural behavior needs to be reconsidered. The paper proposes that we understand farms as local human/animal cultures, and asks what we can mean my natural behavior in such contexts. Since domestic animals adapt to agricultural environments via interaction with caretakers, such interplay is analyzed as “hub” in these animals’ natural behavior.     

CNG汽车加气站火灾爆炸危险分析与预防

对压缩天然气（CNG）汽车加气站的危险因素进行了辨识，并且用事故树法对加气站的火灾爆炸危险进行了分析，从技术、教育、管理3个方面提出了预防控制措施。     

重庆开县"3.25"天然气井泄漏事故原因及影响分析

本文对重庆开县"3.25"井漏事故进行了纵向剖析,并与"12.23"事故的横向原因作了对比,并分析了对自然环境和社会环境的影响。从安全技术和安全管理的角度提出了降低本地区石油天然气开发事故发生率的防范措施。"3.25"事故主要原因是物的不安全状态、人的不安全行为以及地质条件复杂、地层孔隙发育、套管破裂引起的;同时对自然环境的影响主要是甲烷对温室效应的作用,对社会环境的影响主要是担心事故"经常化"以及对当地群众的心理上的影响。     

源液室火灾爆炸危险性分析及风险控制措施

对某企业源液室的危险有害因素进行了分析和辨识,利用火灾爆炸指数法进行了风险评价,针对源液室的现状提出了安全对策,同时建议其进行风险转移,以提高该企业抵抗风险的能力.     

单室燃气火灾后果模拟研究

燃气泄漏着火是引发火灾的一个重要原因，其发展过程包括多相湍流流动、燃烧、传热多个分过程。本文将理想单室燃气泄漏火灾的传热传质过程采用CFD（Compulational Fluid Dynamics）方法进行了计算机模拟，对其发展规律及危害性进行了深入研究，得出了火场中的流场、泻度场及有害气体浓度场的分布，为定量研究火灾烟气流动过程以及建立不同危险等级的危险区域提出了依据和研究方法。     

井喷点火过程天然气爆炸后果分析

井喷失控事故发生后，尽快点火是减少人员伤亡的最有效措施之一。然而，点火过程中一旦发生天然气爆炸，其可能的爆炸伤害范围、破坏范围以及是否在可接受风险范围，就成为决策能否点火的关键。本文应用蒸汽云爆炸的肿当量模型和冲击波峰值超压模型，提出了天然气井喷失控后，发生天然气爆炸的人员死亡区、重伤区和轻伤区的计算方法；假设井喷的天然气无阻流量，计算了可能的人员伤害范围，并对计算结果进行了分析。分析发现，在井喷失控后，最大限度地减少井喷失控时间，以及最大限度地防止天然气在某一区域的大量积聚，是减轻井喷失控天然气爆炸后果的最佳措施。