泄漏液池动态蒸发过程模型研究与分析

指出了现有液体蔓延和蒸发模型的不足,根据质量守恒定律,推导建立了动态液池蒸发模型.在详细分析液池蔓延和蒸发过程的基础上,结合苯的泄漏,利用新建立的数学模型对苯的蔓延和蒸发进行了模拟分析.     

某储罐区火灾多米诺效应场景推演

化工园区中危险源众多,一旦发生事故很容易在整个园区内蔓延和发展.针对化工园区内储罐密集,容易引发连锁反应导致事故扩大的特点,利用FDS软件对储罐火灾场景进行数值模拟,根据储罐所受热辐射确定化工园区内储罐火灾最可能的事故发生序列,并引入基于设备失效前时间的机械设备故障概率模型对罐区内单个储罐的火灾风险进行研究,得到储罐区...     

用水解酸化池-膜生物反应器处理活性艳红X-3B废水

采用水解酸化池-膜生物反应器处理含活性艳红X-3B的模拟废水,研究了水力停留时间（HRT）对水解酸化池废水处理效果的影响,考察了水解酸化池-膜生物反应器对废水的处理效果及膜生物反应器中污泥沉降性能对膜污染的影响。实验结果表明：水解酸化池HRT为16h时,废水的可生化性最好,挥发性脂肪酸质量浓度与COD比值为0．5;HRT为17h时,废水脱色率达69％,而COD的去除率受HRT影响较小;膜生物反应器主要起去除废水中COD的作用;水解酸化池-膜生物反应器处理后废水的脱色率和COD去除率分别为83％和97％;膜生物反应器中活性污泥沉降性能的变化直接影响膜污染的速率。     

Transaction costs and community-based natural resource management in Nepal

Transaction costs in community-based resource management are incurred by households attempting to enforce property right rules over common resources similar to those inherent in private property rights. Despite their importance, transaction costs of community-based management of common pool resources (CPRs) are often not incorporated into the economic analysis of participatory resource management. This paper examines the transaction costs incurred by forest users in community forestry (CF) based on a survey of 309 households belonging to eight different forest user groups (FUGs) in the mid hills of Nepal. The analysis reveals that the average 'poor' household incurred Nepalese rupees (NRS) 1265 in transaction costs annually, while wealthier 'rich' households incurred an average of NRS 2312 per year. Although richer households bear higher proportions of such costs, transaction costs for CF management as a percentage of resource appropriation costs are higher for poorer households (26%) than those of middle-wealth (24%) or rich households (14%). There are also village differences in the level of transaction costs. The results show that transaction costs are a major component of resource management costs and vary according to socio-economic status of resource users and characteristics of the community.     

我国汽车报废回收利用体系框架初探

主要介绍了国内外废旧汽车回收处理现状,并从法制建设、回收网络构建、回收技术研究、宣传教育等方面提出了我国应对废旧汽车回收利用的对策建议。     

基于大数据挖掘技术的地震舆情感知研究

对地震舆情信息的深入感知和有效管理,能够保障社会和谐发展.提出一个基于大数据技术和深度学习的地震舆情感知平台,基于Hadoop和MongoDB大数据技术实现对海量实时地震舆情数据的处理和存储.基于Word2vec和LSTM的融合模型能够有效实现震后网民的情感识别,为舆情预警提供支持.以台湾5.8级地震舆情数据为例,对该...     

基于Logistic回归的燃气管网风险因素重要度分析方法研究

为确定燃气管网风险评估的关键风险因素,以A省各地市燃气管网为研究对象,基于燃气专家经验确定燃气管线风险等级,提出基于Logistic回归的燃气管网风险因素重要度分析方法。采用样本增强及随机抽样的方式,选取400个均衡样本作为管网评估数据输入,通过因子分析方法对其进行降维,得到3个公共因子并作为一级指标反向构建燃气管网风险评估指标体系;利用有序多分类Logistic回归方法,根据回归系数绝对值大小对风险因素进行重要度排序。研究结果表明：外界环境对燃气管网风险的贡献程度相对较高,管道自身因素和巡检养护次之。研究结果可为城市燃气风险防控提供理论依据和方法参考。     

基于CA的城市形态扩展多解模拟——以北京市东部平原区情景分析为例

构建了一个基于人工神经网络的约束型城市扩展CA模型。利用该模型,预测了北京市东部平原区在3种情景规划之下的未来50年的城市形态,为不同的城市发展模式之间的比较分析奠定基础。然后以2024年的北京东部平原区模拟城市形态为基准,从自然生态功效、社会服务功效、经济利益功效3个方面对3种规划模式进行了情景分析,从而系统的比较了3种规划模式的复合生态功效,为城市规划决策提供有力的支持。     

Application of dynamic risk analysis in offshore drilling processes

Process safety is the common global language used to communicate the strategies of hazard identification, risk assessment and safety management. Process safety is identified as an integral part of process development and focuses on preventing and mitigating major process accidents such as fires, explosions, and toxic releases in process industries. Accident probability estimation is the most vital step to all quantitative risk assessment methods. Drilling process for oil is a hazardous operation and hence safety is one of the major concerns and is often measured in terms of risk. Dynamic risk assessment method is meant to reassess risk in terms of updating initial failure probabilities of events and safety barriers, as new information are made available during a specific operation. In this study, a Bayesian network model is developed to represent a well kick scenario. The concept of dynamic environment is incorporated by feeding the real-time failure probability values (observed at different time intervals) of safety barriers to the Bayesian network in order to obtain the corresponding time-dependent variations in kick consequences. This study reveals the importance of real-time monitoring of safety barrier performances and quantitatively shows the effect of deterioration of barrier performance on kick consequence probabilities. The Macondo blowout incident is used to demonstrate how early warnings in barrier probability variations could have been observed and adequately managed to prevent escalation to severe consequences.     

变压器油池火燃烧规律的实验研究*

为对变压器油池火灾进行准确有效的灭火,研究不同尺寸和不同厚度下变压器油的火灾动力学特征和基本燃烧特性,具体分析变压器油的燃烧过程和变压器油燃烧速率、火焰温度以及辐射热流随油池直径以及厚度的变化规律。结果表明:整个油品的燃烧过程分为预热燃烧阶段、稳定燃烧阶段和火焰熄灭阶段。对于厚度大于10 mm的油池燃烧,稳定阶段的燃烧速率与油层厚度无关,稳定阶段的燃烧速率随着油池直径的增加而增加。同时,变压器油火灾连续火焰区温度接近750 ℃。对于稳定燃烧阶段下的变压器油燃烧,基于辐射通量可得出在燃烧过程中,辐射热量占总燃烧热的占比约为1/3。研究结果可丰富变压器油燃烧的基础数据,为变压器火灾的灭火提供参考。