维修时间不确定性下配电网灾后维修队安排的鲁棒恢复研究*

为最小化灾后配电网损失量,准确描述完整维修队工作时间（分为路途时间与具体维修时间）,依据台风路径对维修队所需路途时间进行分类,并利用期望概率描述具体维修时间的不确定性。建立2阶段分布式鲁棒优化模型,采用CCG算法分析国内某地区配电网算例发现:考虑维修时间不确定性可以有效减少配电网损失量。     

基于人工神经网络的气体泄爆最大超压预测研究

为解决传统经验公式在预测气体泄爆中最大超压出现时的较大偏差或过于保守的问题,提出使用人工神经网络预测气体泄爆最大超压。基于124组实验数据,采用BP与RBF神经网络,通过优化算法计算与迭代循环对泄爆样本中的影响因素进行降维与选择,并确定2类神经网络本身在学习与计算气体泄爆样本时的相关参数。结果表明:PCA（主成分分析法）在当前样本条件下的降维效果较差,而通过迭代对比确认气体泄爆样本中的5类特征全部保留时神经网络的训练模拟效果最好;通过对124组实验数据进行随机挑选训练集与测试集的训练模拟结果发现,神经网络对气体泄爆中最大超压的预测效果较好;通过对比Molkov提出的和经Fakandu等改进的NFPA 68经验公式以及2类神经网络的预测结果表明,神经网络相比于传统气体泄爆经验公式具有明显优势。     

施工组织正式网络结构特征对组织安全行为的影响关系研究

为提升建筑施工安全管理水平,探讨施工组织正式网络的结构特征对组织安全行为的影响关系。基于社会网络分析方法,引入安全沟通作为中介变量,建立施工组织正式网络结构特征、安全沟通和组织安全行为的假设模型。基于91个施工组织正式网络结构特征分析,使用多层回归分析方法检验假设模型。结果表明:网络密度、出度中心势和聚类系数均显著正向影响组织安全行为;中间中心势和平均路径长度均显著负向影响组织安全行为;入度中心势对组织安全行为影响不显著;安全沟通分别在出度中心势和中间中心势与组织安全行为的关系中起完全中介作用;安全沟通分别在密度、平均路径长度和聚类系数与组织安全行为的关系中起部分中介作用;安全沟通在入度中心势与组织安全行为的关系中未起到中介作用。     

基于CREAM和贝叶斯网络的空管人误概率预测方法

针对研究管制人因可靠性时存在的模糊性和片面性问题,采用认知可靠性与失误分析方法（CREAM）中的扩展预测法,计算10项管制通用任务的人误概率;在此基础上,以管制行为形成因子作为根节点构建贝叶斯网络,建立其与情景控制模式的不确定关系模型,对管制员在多任务中的人误概率进行预测。研究结果表明:在由相同评判者给出行为形成因子影响效应的前提下,由CREAM扩展预测法和构建贝叶斯网络的方法预测得到的多数任务的人误概率差异较大,从方法的客观性、合理性和适用性角度分析,贝叶斯网络在研究该问题时更具优势。     

隧道救援站通风网络优化设计及人员疏散研究*

为确定铁路隧道救援站最佳通风结构,对烟道布置提出合理建议,采用计算流体力学（CFD）的方法,对铁路隧道救援站通风网络进行优化设计。同时,采用模拟计算的方法对救援站人员疏散进行模拟分析,确定救援横通道布置及防护门开度设置的合理性。研究结果表明:在同等通风参数工况设置下,采用多节点排烟竖井结构后各救援横通道流量分配更均匀,救援站压力平衡性更好,通风效率可提升15%;通过疏散模拟证实,在长560 m的紧急救援站范围内设置10条疏散横通道,横通道设1.7 m宽的逃生门能够满足疏散要求。     

基于改进模体方法的国家应急组织合作网络基元比较

为分析和比较应对非常规突发事件过程中,由不同类型组织个体及其不同频次合作关系构成的应急复杂组织网络的微观结构特征,研究运用表征个体差异和关系强弱的改进模体分析方法,以中国和美国国家应急组织合作网络为例,比较分析其基元同构与异构特征。结果表明:中美应急组织系统不同类型的应急主导和支持组织构成的主要合作模式具有同构性,但子图结构数量分布具有异构性;考虑个体间关系频次差异,中美应急组织网络基元合作模式具有形式同构但相对数量分布异构的特征;比较而言,美国合作网络为分布式、分权化和关系型基元构型,中国合作网络具有集中式、集权化和契约型基元特征。     

基于复杂网络的燃气管线破裂灾害链风险分析*

为提高燃气管线突发事件应急处置决策水平和应急响应能力及效率,采用复杂网络理论和灾害链演化机理对燃气管线破裂灾害事件影响进行耦合分析,构建燃气管线破裂灾害链网络和风险评估模型,并计算得出燃气管线破裂灾害链风险度。为更准确地表达无传播路径的灾害事件之间的关系,将灾害网络中所有最短路径长度的最大值作为其最短路径长度,计算表明这种算法更符合灾害传播实际情况。结果表明:通过燃气管线破裂灾害链风险分析,能够为燃气管线灾害风险控制措施和方案制定提供参考,有利于提高燃气管线破裂灾害事件的应急处置能力和决策水平。     

基于社会技术系统的复工企业疫情防控风险路径研究*

为对复工企业疫情防控中的风险致因因素进行分析,探寻复工企业疫情防控的风险路径,基于社会技术系统理论,建立宏观工效学模型,通过查阅并分析国家、地方政府、企业文件以及相关文献,从人员、技术、组织管理、内部环境及外部环境5个子系统出发,识别出16个复工企业疫情失控致因因素;运用社会网络分析（SNA）构建复工企业疫情防控关系网络,对各因素节点中心度进行计算,分析各节点在网络中的位置及影响程度;采用贝叶斯网络（BN）进行参数学习和推理学习,找出复工企业疫情失控的最大致因链。结果表明:复工企业疫情失控关系网络中,存在政府监督管理不力→防疫物资筹备不足→日常监管不到位,政府监督管理不力→ 防疫宣传、培训缺失→员工防疫知识欠缺,政府监督管理不力→防疫宣传、培训缺失→日常监管不到位3条最长风险路径。研究结果可帮助复工企业针对最长风险路径中的因素进行管理,从而有效地为复工企业防疫提供理论支持。     

An application of a modified theory of planned behavior model to investigate adolescents’ job safety knowledge,norms, attitude and intention to enact workplace safety and health skills

Introduction: For many reasons, including a lack of adequate safety training and education, U.S. adolescents experience a higher rate of job-related injury compared to adult workers. Widely used social-psychological theories in public health research and practice, such as the theory of planned behavior, may provide guidance for developing and evaluating school-based interventions to prepare adolescents for workplace hazards and risks. Method: Using a structural equation modeling approach, the current study explores whether a modified theory of planned behavior model provides insight on 1,748 eighth graders’ occupational safety and health (OSH) attitude, subjective norm, self-efficacy and behavioral intention, before and after receiving instruction on a free, national young worker safety and health curriculum. Reliability estimates for the measures were produced and direct and indirect associations between knowledge and other model constructs assessed. Results: Overall, the findings align with the theory of planned behavior. The structural equation model adequately fit the data; most path coefficients are statistically significant and knowledge has indirect effects on behavioral intention. Confirmatory factor analyses suggest that the knowledge, attitude, self-efficacy, and behavioral intention measures each reflect a unique dimension (reliability estimates ≥0.86), while the subjective norm measure did not perform adequately. Conclusion: The findings presented provide support for using behavioral theory (specifically a modified theory of planned behavior) to investigate adolescents’ knowledge, perceptions, and behavioral intention to engage in safe and healthful activities at work, an understanding of which may contribute to reducing the downstream burden of injury on this vulnerable population—the future workforce. Practical application: Health behavior theories, commonly used in the social and behavioral sciences, have utility and provide guidance for developing and evaluating OSH interventions, including those aimed at preventing injuries and promoting the health and safety of adolescent workers in the U.S., who are injured at higher rates than are adults.     

A Bayesian network-based approach for the assessment and management of ageing in major hazard establishments

Currently, there is an increasing attention towards ageing of industrial equipment, as the phenomenon has been recognised as a cause of severe accidents, recorded in the last years in many process establishments. Recent studies described ageing through a number of key-factors affecting the phenomenon by accelerating or slowing it down. The Italian Competent Authority for the prevention of chemical accidents (Seveso III Directive) adopted a short-cut method, accounting for the assessment of these factors, to evaluate the adequateness of ageing management during inspections at Seveso sites. In this paper, a Bayesian Network was developed, by using the data gathered during the first application of the short-cut method, with the aim to verify the robustness of the approach for ageing assessment and the validity of the a priori assumptions used in assessing the key-factors. The structure of the Bayesian network was established by using experts’ knowledge, whereas the Counting Learning algorithm was adopted to execute the parameter learning by means of the software Netica. The results showed that this network could effectively explore the complex logical and uncertain relationships amongst factors affecting equipment ageing. Results of the present study were exploited to improve the short-cut method.