中国碳排放强度与煤炭消耗的冲击效应分析

受能源消费结构的影响,煤炭作为我国经济发展的资源支柱,一方面推动着经济快速增长,另一方面也对中国节能减排、降低碳排放强度提出了挑战,因而准确认识碳排放强度与煤炭消耗之间的交互冲击作用机理,为挖掘碳减排路径提供了科学依据.本文选取1990 - 2008年间中国碳排放强度与煤炭消耗指标,采用EG协整检验证明碳排放强度与煤炭消耗之间存在长期稳定关系,并以此建立VAR模型和脉冲响应函数,考察碳排放强度与煤炭消耗之间的长期动态影响特征.冲击响应分析结果表明:(1)煤炭消耗比重的变化对碳排放强度的冲击影晌具有一定滞后性和波动性,但冲击作用长期持久;(2)碳排放强度对煤炭消耗比重的冲击影响在短期内较剧烈,但长期冲击影响不明显;(3)煤炭消耗比重的降低在长期内会促使碳排放强度的降低,因而可以通过降低煤炭消耗比重来达到降低碳排放强度的目的.最后,从结构性降低、产业传导性降低以及技术性降低等角度,提出减少煤炭消耗、降低碳排放强度的相关对策措施.     

环保型中小企业借贷环境分析

在经济多元发展的新历史阶段,环保型中小型企业作为正在蓬勃发展和活跃市场的重要经济个体,可以优化产业经济结构,推动循环经济发展.本文从软信息与关系型借贷研究入手,针对目前环保型中小企业财务信息不甚清晰、抵抗外界经济冲击能力有限和融资渠道特殊等特点,建立博弈模型,深入分析完全信息和不完全信息条件下,小额贷款公司与环保型中小企业客户之间的借贷关系.通过整体构建基于软信息特征的制度化信用风险控制准则,最终达到合理满足环保型中小企业激增的特殊融资需求.研究结果表明:以关系型借贷理论为依托,为满足各自的市场需求和利益保障,需要充分考虑环保型中小企业贷款客户的各类软信息,建立符合软信息时效性的信贷流程,决策权相对集中的组织结构和面向软信息收集的正向激励机制,从而实现对环保型中小企业客户贷款信用风险的有效控制,最终达到完善区域信用环境、支持中小企业发展和活跃社会主义市场经济的多重目标.     

大坝下游定点区域溶解氧饱和度预测

大坝通过坝身泄流时,巨大的洪水卷吸空气中的大量气体直泻到下游河床,造成下游河道特别是近坝区域气体含量过饱和,给下游水生生物带来不利影响,其中鱼类气泡病就是水体气体过饱和造成的典型病症。为探明大坝泄流对坝下河道溶解氧饱和度的影响,以三峡 葛洲坝区域坝下近坝区定点区域的溶解氧实测资料为基础,建立溶解氧饱和度的BP网络预测模型,对大坝不同运行工况进行下游溶解氧饱和度的预测仿真计算,并将仿真预测值与实测及数值模拟结果进行比较分析。结果得出BP网络模型能很好地逼近坝下近坝区指定区域的溶解氧饱和度,可根据大坝运行工况对下游水体溶解氧饱和度进行快速预测,为有效控制坝下水体溶解氧饱和度提供借鉴     

Dyella ginsengisoli LA-4吸附Cu2+特性及其动力学研究

研究一种新型吸附菌剂Dyella ginsengisoli LA-4(以下简称菌株LA-4)对Cu2+的吸附特性及其动力学,并利用表面响应法优化菌株LA-4对Cu2+的吸附条件.结果表明:(1)菌株LA-4的接种量、pH对Cu2+的吸附有重要的影响.(2)根据表面响应法 优化模型预测出菌株LA-4吸附Cu2+的最...     

Designing and Implementing a Network for Sensing Water Quality and Hydrology across Mountain to Urban Transitions

Water resources are increasingly impacted by growing human populations, land use, and climate changes, and complex interactions among biophysical processes. In an effort to better understand these factors in semiarid northern Utah, United States, we created a real‐time observatory consisting of sensors deployed at aquatic and terrestrial stations to monitor water quality, water inputs, and outputs along mountain to urban gradients. The Gradients Along Mountain to Urban Transitions (GAMUT) monitoring network spans three watersheds with similar climates and streams fed by mountain winter‐derived precipitation, but that differ in urbanization level, land use, and biophysical characteristics. The aquatic monitoring stations in the GAMUT network include sensors to measure chemical (dissolved oxygen, specific conductance, pH, nitrate, and dissolved organic matter), physical (stage, temperature, and turbidity), and biological components (chlorophyll‐a and phycocyanin). We present the logistics of designing, implementing, and maintaining the network; quality assurance and control of numerous, large datasets; and data acquisition, dissemination, and visualization. Data from GAMUT reveal spatial differences in water quality due to urbanization and built infrastructure; capture rapid temporal changes in water quality due to anthropogenic activity; and identify changes in biological structure, each of which are demonstrated via case study datasets.     

Assessment of present and future risk to Italian forests and human health: Modelling and mapping

A review of ozone pollution in Italy shows levels largely above the thresholds established by EU regulation for vegetation and human health protection. The Italian air quality monitoring network appears quantitatively inadequate to cover all the territorial surface, because of scarcity and unequal distribution of monitoring sites. By applying the integrated assessment model RAINS-Italy to the year 2000, the whole of Italy exceeds the AOT40 critical level for forest, while Northern and central areas show strong potential of O₃ impact on human health with ∼11% of territory >10 O₃-induced premature deaths. Two scenarios for the year 2020, the Current Legislation and the Maximum Technical Feasible Reduction, show a reduction of AOT40Forest by 29% and 44%, SOMO35 by 31% and 47%, and O₃-induced premature deaths by 32% and 48%, compared to 2000. RAINS-Italy can be used to improve the map quality and cover areas not reached by the national monitoring network.     

River channel network design for drought and flood control: A case study of Xiaoqinghe River basin, Jinan City, China

Vulnerability of river channels to urbanization has been lessened by the extensive construction of artificial water control improvements. The challenge, however, is that traditional engineering practices on isolated parts of a river may disturb the hydrologic continuity and interrupt the natural state of ecosystems. Taking the Xiaoqinghe River basin as a whole, we developed a river channel network design to mitigate river risks while sustaining the river in a state as natural as possible. The river channel risk from drought during low-flow periods and flood during high-flow periods as well as the potential for water diversion were articulated in detail. On the basis of the above investigation, a network with “nodes” and “edges” could be designed to relieve drought hazard and flood risk respectively. Subsequently, the shortest path algorithm in the graph theory was applied to optimize the low-flow network by searching for the shortest path. The effectiveness assessment was then performed for the low-flow and high-flow networks, respectively. For the former, the network connectedness was evaluated by calculating the “gamma index of connectivity” and “alpha index of circuitry”; for the latter, the ratio of flood-control capacity to projected flood level was devised and calculated. Results show that the design boosted network connectivity and circuitry during the low-flow periods, indicating a more fluent flow pathway, and reduced the flood risk during the high-flow periods.     

How good is GLASOD?

The Global Assessment of Soil Degradation (GLASOD) has been the most influential global appraisal of land quality in terms of environmental policy. However, its expert judgments were never tested for their consistency and could not be reproduced at unvisited sites, while the relationship between the GLASOD assessments of land degradation and the social and economic impact of that degradation remains unclear. Yet, other methodologies that could respond to urgent calls for an updated assessment of the global environmental quality are not operational or, at best, in progress. Therefore, we evaluate the reliability and social relevance of the GLASOD approach and assess its candidacy for new global environmental assessments. The study concentrates on the African continent, capitalizing on new GIS data to delineate and define the characteristics of GLASOD map units. Consistency is tested by comparing expert judgments on soil degradation hazard for similar combinations of biophysical conditions and land use. Reproducibility is evaluated by estimating an ordered logit model that relates the qualitative land degradation classes to easily available information on explanatory variables, the results of which can be used to assess the land degradation at unvisited sites. Finally, a cross-sectional analysis investigates the relation between GLASOD assessments and crop production data at sub-national scale and its association with the prevalence of malnutrition. The GLASOD assessments prove to be only moderately consistent and hardly reproducible, while the counter-intuitive trend with crop production reveals the complexity of the production-degradation relationship. It appears that increasing prevalence of malnutrition coincides with poor agro-productive conditions and highly degraded land. The GLASOD approach can be improved by resolving the differences in conceptualization among experts and by defining the boundaries of the ordered classes in the same units as independent, quantitative land degradation data.     

Human Dimensions of Forest Disturbance by Insects: An International Synthesis

Ecological disturbances of forests by insects have a complex array of associated human dimensions presenting complications for natural resource decision making and relationships between stakeholders and managers. This article discusses the human context of forest disturbances by insects by reviewing four cases of bark beetle forest disturbance from British Columbia in Canada, Bavarian Forest National Park in Germany, the Kenai Peninsula in Alaska, and the north central region of Colorado. Findings and lessons learned from these studies are outlined along with their implications for managing forest disturbances by insects in general. Conclusions focus on the need to assess the broad array of impacts and risks perceived by local residents and the capacity for local action and involvement in managing forest disturbances. Communication and interaction between resource managers and local stakeholders can facilitate the identification of management priorities and potentially reduce some of the risks associated with forest disturbances by insects.     

BP神经网络在台风路径预报中的应用

利用前馈型BP神经网络模型,对发生于中国沿海的热带气旋的移动路径进行了预报应用研究.根据中国<台风年鉴>发布的每个台风过程记录,对预报试验的台风个例分别选取了经度、纬度、中心气压和最大风速等81个因子,由多元回归选取了其中相关性好的因子,进行网络的学习训练,在获取前24h间隔6h的4次台风信息的基础上,用来预报了台风未来24h,48h和72h的短期路径变化.将该方法预报结果与CLIPER模式预报结果进行了比较,结果表明,BP神经网络模式的预报精度比CLIPER模式的高.