基于模糊贝叶斯网络的煤气化职业健康风险分析

针对煤气化行业职业健康风险影响因素不确定及模糊的特点,建立了职业健康风险计算模型。该模型将模糊数学与贝叶斯网络相耦合,模拟事件概率,找出导致风险的主要因素。通过分析煤气化行业中存在的多种风险因素,应用问卷调查法和模糊集理论模拟了根节点的发生概率,得出职业健康风险概率的预测值;应用贝叶斯网络反向推理的功能计算根节点后验概率并排序,确定了薄弱环节。该模型不仅能解决概率缺失情况下的风险量化推算问题,定量进行职业健康风险评估,还可以实现关键因素的识别,并能有针对性地提出改进措施,为职业健康风险预防提供决策依据。     

基于动态元网络的地铁施工安全事故致因分析

为有效避免地铁施工安全事故的发生,将动态元网络的分析方法应用于地铁施工安全事故致因分析,建立地铁施工安全事故网络节点体系,提出重点控制因素。以杭州地铁一号线施工安全事故为例,在充分考虑人的主观能动性后,建立以人员、行为、事件和组织为节点的节点体系,确定节点的数量及节点之间的相互关系,建立施工安全事故网络模型并进行分析,对打击效果进行对比分析,找到比较理想的打击策略,确立节点的重要度排序,研究结果表明:应重点控制有效的监督相关节点,即可有效地避免或者减少此类事故的发生。得出的结论与事故通报结果基本相符,这为避免地铁施工安全事故提供了新的研究思路。     

急倾斜上保护层开采保护效果的参数敏感度研究

为对急倾斜上保护层开采过程中,保护层开采多参数同时变化时的保护效果变化规律进行量化研究,将被保护层膨胀变形曲线的形态参数作为保护效果考察指标,基于可旋转CCD试验方案进行有限元计算,建立了保护层开采保护效果的响应面模型,得到了不同保护效果指标受多个保护层开采参数变异影响的敏感度。通过对急倾斜上保护层开采实例进行敏感度分析得到:范围相关保护效果指标受保护层开采参数变异影响的敏感度最高,位置相关保护效果指标敏感度次之,卸压程度相关保护效果指标敏感度最小。范围相关保护效果指标中,上部卸压角受侧压系数变异影响最敏感,敏感度为1.70;下部卸压角受层间距变异影响最敏感,敏感度为1.02;倾向保护范围长度受层间距变异影响最敏感,敏感度为-1.89。     

陆上原油长输管道泄漏爆炸事故情景构建研究

以某陆上原油长输管道为例,设定了陆上原油长输管道泄漏爆炸事故情景背景信息及演化过程,从预防、准备、预警、响应、恢复等阶段,梳理分析了事故情景应对全过程的任务及职责主体;针对各项任务从计划预案、人员队伍、装备物资、培训演练、运行机制等方面开展了情景应对能力评估;并针对存在的差距和不足,从企业和政府2个层面提出了针对此类情景的应急能力提升对策建议。该研究可为相关政府及企业加强油气长输管道事故应急准备能力建设提供参考。     

Teams as boundaries: How intra‐team and inter‐team brokerage influence network changes in knowledge‐seeking networks

What role does an ego's brokerage location—within a team (intra‐team) or outside the team (inter‐team)—play in the evolution of an instrumental knowledge‐seeking network in terms of both proximal (i.e., within the team) and distal (i.e., outside the team) tie formation and tie decay? We address this question by drawing on literature about social networks, brokerage, and teams. We use temporally separated data from 302 students embedded in 97 teams to test our hypotheses about the impacts of intra‐team and inter‐team brokerage on proximal and distal network evolution, specifically on four network changes in knowledge‐seeking networks: proximal tie formation, proximal tie decay, distal tie formation, and distal tie decay. We find that these four changes depend on individual network brokerage location even after controlling for personality and task characteristics. Specifically, inter‐team brokers change their networks both within and outside their teams, whereas intra‐team brokers curtail their network changes. We argue that these opposite effects occur because inter‐team brokers have greater autonomy than intra‐team brokers. This study adds to the ongoing dialog about network evolution in social network literature and to the conversations about brokerage and its location in the context of team‐based work.     

合成有机物结构-生物降解性关系的研究

本文综述了合成有机物生物降解性的研究方法.以及定性结构-生物降解性关系(SBR).重点综述了芳香类化合物的结构与生物降解性的关系.研究这一关系有助于有毒化学品生物降解性的预测.     

基于BP神经网络算法的密云水库水质参数反演研究

密云水库是北京市重要的地表饮用水源地,在保障首都水源安全方面起着重要作用,而密云水库水质参数的区域监测已成为当前亟待解决的问题。为了实现密云水库水质参数大范围、实时获取,该文基于遥感和GIS技术,采用BP神经网络算法,结合地面监测数据和Landsat 8遥感影像,分别建立了反演总磷、总氮、氨氮和COD(化学需氧量)4个水质参数的BP神经网络模型,并反演了密云水库2013-2018年非结冰期主要水质参数,分析了密云水库主要水质参数的年际变化特征、季节变化特征和空间分异特征。结果表明,(1)水质参数的Landsat 8敏感波段分别为:总氮为1、4波段,氨氮为1-7波段,总磷为1、3-7波段,COD为2-5波段。(2)密云水库主要水质参数在2013-2018年总体呈下降趋势,氨氮和COD为Ⅰ类水质,总磷为Ⅱ类水质,总氮为Ⅲ类水质。(3)4个水质参数指标春季最高、秋季次之、夏季最低,总氮、总磷、氨氮和COD的春季值分别是夏季值的1.08、1.36、1.6、1.45倍。(4)密云水库不同水质参数的空间差异性较大,总体来看,水库北部和东部的4个水质参数含量相对较高,这种分布与北部和东部村庄密集以及密云水库两大入库河流有关。综上所述,基于BP神经网络算法的密云水库水质反演研究是可行的,且得到了较为可信的研究结果,该研究可为密云水库水质管理与政策制定提供重要的科学依据。     

Social discrimination tuning in ants: template formation and chemical similarity

To investigate the role of template plasticity in shaping nest-mate recognition processes in ants, we constructed experimental mixed-species groups of Manica rubida with either Myrmica rubra, Tetramorium bicarinatum or Formica selysi. Selecting Ma. rubida as the focal species, we observed the behaviour within mixed-species groups and the transfer rates of cuticular hydrocarbons (CHC) onto the focal ants, and we also tested the aggression of the focal species reared either alone or in association with each of the three different species. We show that Ma. rubida workers were always amicable towards their mixed group members, as towards members of the respective parental colonies, irrespective of the associated species. They did, however, express different levels of aggression towards single-species groups of the other species tested, depending on the species with which they were reared. The study suggests that similarity in CHC profiles in two species leads to a narrow template in mixed groups, while dissimilarity is followed by lower levels of aggression (a broader template), at least against species with similar CHC compound compositions (i.e. both a broader template in the focal ants and familiarity with the compound groups of the tested individuals operate together). This refutes the hypothesis that ants reared in mixed-species groups are systematically more tolerant. It also demonstrates that heterospecific information is not treated equally during development. We suggest that post-imaginal learning, template reforming and decision making are more precisely tuned when the two species' chemical complexes are similar.     

Artificial neural network modeling of caste odor discrimination based on cuticular hydrocarbons in termites

Summary. Individuals in an insect colony need to identify one another according to caste. Nothing is known about the sensory process allowing nestmates to discriminate minute variations in the cuticular hydrocarbon mixture. The purpose of this study was to attempt to model caste odors discrimination in four species of Reticulitermes termites for the first time by a non-linear mathematical approach using an "artificial neural network" (ANN). Several rounds of testing were carried out using 1 – the whole hydrocarbon mixtures 2 – mixtures containing the hydrocarbons selected by principal component analysis (PCA) as the most implicated in caste discrimination. Discrimination between worker and soldier castes was tested in all four species. For two species we tested discrimination of four castes (workers, soldiers, nymphs, neotenics). To test cuticular pattern similarity in two sibling species (R. santonensis and R. flavipes), we performed two experiments using one species for training and the other for query. Using whole hydrocarbons mixtures, worker/soldier discrimination was always successful in all species. Network performance decreased with the number of hydrocarbons used as inputs. Four-caste discrimination was less successful. In the experiment with the sibling species, the ANN was able to distinguish soldiers but not workers. The results of this study suggest that non-linear mathematical analysis is a good tool for classification of castes based on cuticular hydrocarbon mixture. In addition this study confirms that hydrocarbon mixtures observed are real chemical entities and constitute a true chemical signature or odor. Whole mixtures are not always necessary for discrimination. Received 23 July 1998; accepted 9 October 1998.     

The Botanist Effect Revisited: Plant Species Richness, County Area, and Human Population Size in the United States

Abstract:  The "botanist effect" is thought to be the reason for higher plant species richness in areas where botanists are disproportionately present as an artefactual consequence of a more thorough sampling. We examined whether this was the case for U.S. counties. We collated the number of species of vascular plants, human population size, and the area of U.S. counties. Controlling for spatial autocorrelation and county area, plant species richness increased with human population size and density in counties with and without universities and/or botanical gardens, with no significant differences in the relation between the two subsets. This is consistent with previous findings and further evidence of a broad-scale positive correlation between species richness and human population presence, which has important consequences for the experience of nature by inhabitants of densely populated regions. Combined with the many reports of a negative correlation between the two variables at a local scale, the positive relation between plant species richness in U.S. counties and human population presence stresses the need for the conservation of seminatural areas in urbanized ecosystems and for the containment of urban and suburban sprawl.