区域性煤矿百万吨死亡率指标的宏观预测研究

为了对煤矿安全状况进行宏观预测,提出区域性煤矿安全状况评价指标体系并建立了以煤矿百万吨死亡率指标标征区域性煤矿安全状况的灰色预测模型。在对煤矿综合机械化采煤率、大型煤矿产量比例、原煤全员效率指标预测分析的基础上,利用多元回归法综合预测煤矿百万吨死亡率指标。实例计算证明:建立的预测模型具有输入数据少、建模简单、计算快捷等优点;客观地反映出区域性的煤矿安全状况;该模型可进行煤矿安全的短期预测,并为制定煤矿安全控制指标提供理论依据。     

汽车气制动ABS调节阀测试系统气动测试回路设计研究

针对气制动防抱死制动系统(ABS)调节阀测试系统气动回路设计进行研究;根据我国的汽车生产和检测现状,在确定气动测试回路总体方案的基础上,进行主控部分、负载回路、控制回路的设计和计算,所设计的气路检测系统可用于测试8种典型的气制动元件的密封性及动静态特性,通过不同的组合能够满足每一种阀的测试需求。该气动测试回路有效解决了简单阀类测量方法的不足,满足不了生产率及测量精度要求的问题。     

道路交叉口冲突仿真分析

针对基于事故的安全评价在数量、周期、均值、随机性等方面以及基于现场冲突观测识别在主观性、可靠性、成本、指标全面性等方面存在的问题,提出基于冲突仿真的交叉口安全预评价分析方法:研究利用安全间接分析(SSAM)模型分析冲突的基本原理和冲突时间(TTC)、遭遇时间(PET)等分析指标的计算方法;以及利用VISSIM仿真软件进行冲突仿真分析应注意的策略。以邢台市某道路交叉口安全改善方案为例,进行改善前后冲突仿真的比较分析。研究结果表明,改善后在通行效率显著提升的同时,交叉、追尾、车道变换冲突的数量均显著减少,TTC值有所增加,说明改善后安全程度有所提升。笔者提出的方法和案例应用为道路交叉口改善措施的安全预评价提供了一种分析途径和有益借鉴。     

Mechanical Property Characterization of Plasticized Sugar Beet Pulp and Poly(Lactic Acid) Green Composites Using Acoustic Emission and Confocal Microscopy

Sorbitol and glycerol were used to plasticize sugar beet pulp-poly(lactic acid) green composites. The plasticizer was incorporated into sugar beet pulp (SBP) at 0%, 10%, 20%, 30% and 40% w/w at low temperature and shear and then compounded with poly(lactic acid) (PLA) using twin-screw extrusion and injection molding. The SBP:PLA ratio was maintained at 30:70. As expected, tensile strength decreased by 25% and the elongation increased. Acoustic emission (AE) showed correlated debonding and fracture mechanisms for up to 20% w/w plasticizer and uncorrelated debonding and fracture for 30–40% sorbitol and 30% glycerol content in SBP–PLA composites. All samples had a well dispersed SBP phase with some aggregation in the PLA matrix. However, at 40% glycerol plasticized SBP–PLA composites exhibited unique AE behavior and confocal microscopy revealed the plasticized SBP and PLA formed a co-continuous two phase system.

Enhancing community-based disaster preparedness with information technology

A critical component of community-based disaster preparedness (CBDP) is a local resource database of suppliers providing physical, information and human resources for use in disaster response. Maintenance of such a database can become a collaborative responsibility among community-based non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and public and private community organisations. In addition to mobilising resources, this process raises awareness within the community and aids in assessing local knowledge and resources. This paper presents the results of a pilot study on implementing a community-based resource database through collaboration with local American Red Cross chapters and public and private community organisations. The design of the resource database is described. The resource database is accessible via the internet and offline using laptops and handheld Personal Digital Assistants. The study concludes that CBDP is strengthened through a combination of appropriate information technology and collaborative relationships between NGOs and community-based organisations.     

The humanitarian common logistic operating picture: a solution to the inter‐agency coordination challenge

Although significant progress has been made in developing the practice of humanitarian logistics, further improvements in efficiency and effectiveness have the potential to save lives and reduce suffering. This paper explores how the military/emergency services’ concept of a common operating picture (COP) can be adapted to the humanitarian logistics context, and analyses a practical and proven approach to addressing the key challenge of inter‐agency coordination and decision‐making. Successful adaptation could provide the mechanism through which predicted and actual demands, together with the location and status of material in transit, are captured, evaluated, and presented in real time as the basis for enhanced decision‐making between actors in the humanitarian supply network. Through the introduction of a humanitarian logistics COP and its linkages to national disaster management systems, local communities and countries affected by disasters and emergencies will be better placed to oversee and manage their response activities.     

Carbon dioxide emissions from cities in China based on high resolution emission gridded data

Based on the China high resolution emission gridded data (1 km spatial resolution), this article is aimed to create a Chinese city carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission data set using consolidated data sources as well as normalized and standardized data processing methods. Standard methods were used to calculate city CO₂ emissions, including scope 1 and scope 2. Cities with higher CO₂ emissions are mostly in north, northeast, and eastern coastal areas. Cities with lower CO₂ emissions are in the western region. Cites with higher CO₂ emissions are clustered in the Jing-Jin-Ji Region (such as Beijing, Tianjin, and Tangshan), and the Yangtze River Delta region (such as Shanghai and Suzhou). The city per capita CO₂ emission is larger in the north than the south. There are obvious aggregations of cities with high per capita CO₂ emission in the north. Four cities among the top 10 per capita emissions (Erdos, Wuhai, Shizuishan, and Yinchuan) cluster in the main coal production areas of northern China. This indicates the significant impact of coal resources endowment on city industry and CO₂ emissions. The majority (77%) of cities have annual CO₂ emissions below 50 million tons. The mean annual emission, among all cities, is 37 million tons. Emissions from service-based cities, which include the smallest number of cities, are the highest. Industrial cities are the largest category and the emission distribution from these cities is close to the normal distribution. Emissions and degree of dispersion, in the other cities (excluding industrial cities and service-based cities), are in the lowest level. Per capita CO₂ emissions in these cities are generally below 20 t/person (89%) with a mean value of 11 t/person. The distribution interval of per capita CO₂ emission within industrial cities is the largest among the three city categories. This indicates greater differences among per capita CO₂ emissions of industrial cities. The distribution interval of per capita CO₂ emission of other cities is the lowest, indicating smaller differences of per capita CO₂ emissions among this city category. Three policy suggestions are proposed: first, city CO₂ emission inventory data in China should be increased, especially for prefecture level cities. Second, city responsibility for emission reduction, and partitioning the national goal should be established, using a bottom-up approach based on specific CO₂ emission levels and potential for emission reductions in each city. Third, comparative and benchmarking research on city CO₂ emissions should be conducted, and a Top Runner system of city CO₂ emission reduction should be established.     

Ecosystem services in coupled social–ecological systems: Closing the cycle of service provision and societal feedback

Both the ‘cascade model’ of ecosystem service provision and the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response framework individually contribute to the understanding of human–nature interactions in social–ecological systems (SES). Yet, as several points of criticism show, they are limited analytical tools when it comes to reproducing complex cause–effect relationships in such systems. However, in this paper, we point out that by merging the two models, they can mutually enhance their comprehensiveness and overcome their individual conceptual deficits. Therefore we closed a cycle of ecosystem service provision and societal feedback by rethinking and reassembling the core elements of both models. That way, we established a causal sequence apt to describe the causes of change to SES, their effects and their consequences. Finally, to illustrate its functioning we exemplified and discussed our approach based on a case study conducted in the Alpujarra de la Sierra in southern Spain.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0651-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Evaluating anthropogenic N inputs to diverse lake basins: A case study of three Chinese lakes

The environmental degradation of lakes in China has become increasingly serious over the last 30 years and eutrophication resulting from enhanced nutrient inputs is considered a top threat. In this study, a quasi-mass balance method, net anthropogenic N inputs (NANI), was introduced to assess the human influence on N input into three typical Chinese lake basins. The resultant NANI exceeded 10 000 kg N km⁻² year⁻¹ for all three basins, and mineral fertilizers were generally the largest sources. However, rapid urbanization and shrinking agricultural production capability may significantly increase N inputs from food and feed imports. Higher percentages of NANI were observed to be exported at urban river outlets, suggesting the acceleration of NANI transfer to rivers by urbanization. Over the last decade, the N inputs have declined in the basins dominated by the fertilizer use but have increased in the basins dominated by the food and feed import. In the foreseeable future, urban areas may arise as new hotspots for nitrogen in China while fertilizer use may decline in importance in areas of high population density.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0638-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

城市生活垃圾处理方式生命周期评价的比较研究

生命周期评价理论与方法作为一种量化环境影响的工具,在诸多领域中得到了广泛的应用。在垃圾处理领域,生命周期评价最早在20世纪90年代得到应用。生命周期评价与城市生活垃圾处理的有效结合,将促进城市生活垃圾的减量化、资源化、无害化目标的实现。总结了生命周期评价理论与方法在城市生活垃圾处理中的应用现状。对国内不同城市生活垃圾处理方式环境影响因子进行比较分析,诸如全球变暖潜力、酸化潜力和富营养化潜力等因子。针对其目标范围定义、数据收集、评价方法的选择、结果解释及工艺改进等方面指出了目前研究的局限性和不足。并对未来城市生活垃圾处理生命周期评价的发展方向进行展望。