土层分层厚度对场地地表地震动参数的影响

以江淮地区典型场地资料为原型,选取不同的土层分层厚度,构造多种场地土层计算模型,选择Taft、Kobe和El Centro三条强震记录作为地震输入,采用一维频域等效线性化波动方法分析了分层厚度对场地地表地震动参数的影响。研究表明:土层分层厚度对场地地震动参数存在影响,主要表现为采用较大分层厚度计算得到的地表峰值加速度A_(max)和反应谱特征周期T_g相对偏低,应采用尽可能小的土层分层厚度;分别采用1.0m和2.0m分层厚度计算得到的地表加速度反应谱形状基本重合,A_(max)和T_g也基本一致,最小选取2.0m土层分层厚度可以满足工程精度的要求。     

中线调水对汉江下游枯水期的水安全影响研究

针对现状以及南水北调中线工程不同调水方案下的水文条件,从可利用水资源量和水环境容量两个方面来研究中线调水对汉江下游枯水期水量和水质状况的影响。以人均月可利用水资源量和人均月水环境容量作为评价指标,提出相应的水安全评价方法和评价标准,来定量评价调水前后汉江下游枯水期水安全的变化程度。研究结论认为：各调水方案对汉江下游水量安全的影响程度比水质安全大;调水对枯水期水安全影响较大的月份是12月、1月和2月,而11月、3月则要好一些;现状条件下的水安全评价结果都在“较为安全”级别以上,而各调水方案的实施对汉江下游水安全都有一定影响,其中以方案Ⅱ的影响最大,方案Ⅲ则由于引江济汉补偿工程的兴建,其水安全保障程度要高于其他方案.     

分形维数在洪水分期的应用

分数阶积分是分形理论的一个重要分支,应用分数阶积分进行时间序列维数估计,其精度比box维数、量规法等方法高。在此方法的基础上,以金沙江上游石鼓站42年的流量数据为研究对象,对流量散点序列进行了分形分析,在初步证明洪峰散点序列是一种分形的前提下,将分数阶积分应用到洪水分期上,通过估算的维数确定洪水分期原则并定量划分了洪水的分期时间,论证了洪水分期的合理性,并将分数阶积分估算维数法与容量维数法进行比较。对比传统洪水分期方法,分形维数分期结果较为客观,受经验和人为影响较小,但是容量维数方法需要选择大量的洪峰点,分析计算的工作量很大,而分数阶积分具有运算方便、结果准确等优点,而且建立的分形函数关系方便进一步分析研究。〖     

基于AWTP指数的浙江省干旱规律时空分析

利用浙江省51个气象站1960-2009年的50 a逐日降水资料,基于降水的平均等待时间(AWTP)指数,采用小波分析和克里金空间插值方法对浙江省干旱时空特性进行分析。结果表明,浙江省的干旱随时间增加有加剧趋势。在50 a中,1979年干旱程度最强,相当干期值最大,达到52 d。在趋势变化上还同时叠加着明显的年际和年代际变化。浙江省干旱存在3 a左右的主周期;另外浙江省的干旱具有明显的区域性,干旱程度由南向北递增。嘉兴的平湖市及浙西金华周围内陆丘陵盆地发生干旱比其他地区更明显,其次是杭州市西部、温州市及台州市温岭等东南沿海山地丘陵地区,中东部的宁波市和绍兴市、西北部的湖州市以及浙江西南部等地区发生干旱程度较轻。     

濒海环境下工程装备保养周期的确定方法

采用模糊综合评价法,量化了环境因素对工程装备在濒海环境下保养周期的影响,由此提出保养周期的调整方案,有利于提高工程装备维护保养的科学化水平。基于对大量数据的分析,深入研究了濒海环境下各环境因素对工程装备的影响规律,在此基础上分别建立了主要影响因素的模糊隶属度函数,更为科学地建立了定性指标与定量指标的联系,有效抑制了人为因素在评价过程中的干扰;采用比较标度法建立了权重集,最终得出环境因素的综合影响系数。     

“十四五”我国VOCs排放总量控制方案研究与建议

我国大气污染防治工作已从以细颗粒物(PM_2.5)控制为主转变为PM_2.5与臭氧(O3)协同控制新阶段,O3已成为空气质量达标和持续改善的重要制约因素。挥发性有机物(VOCs)是生成臭氧的重要前体物之一,大幅削减VOCs的排放量是现阶段O3污染防治的关键。本文基于“十四五”我国VOCs排放的预测结果,提出了VOCs总量控制的总体思路、范围和技术路线,设计了VOCs排放总量控制方案,确定了总量分配指标和指标权重,进一步得出各省(区、市)2025年控制情景下VOCs排放的削减率、削减量以及排放总量,并以此为基础对“十四五”时期VOCs总量控制提出了以区域总量控制为主,结合重点行业、重点企业集群实施总量控制;强化重点行业、重点企业、集群或园区综合治理;建立以环境质量为核心,综合VOCs排放量核查核算及减排绩效评估的考核体系;同时提出了建立市场化的减排机制和舆论监督的实施机制等建议。     

Reproductive trade-offs from mating with a successful male: the case of the tephritid fly Anastrepha obliqua

In lekking species, females may become sperm-limited when mating with sexually successful males, and this may be exacerbated by a poor male diet. Polygynous males may also be limited by the amount of accessory gland products (AGPs) they can transmit to females, which in turn may influence the females’ refractory period and longevity. Here, we tested the effect of male mating history, larval and adult diet on copula duration, mating intervals, female fecundity, fertilisation success, life span and likelihood to remate using sexually successful males of the lekking tephritid fly Anastrepha obliqua. Flies originated from either a native or exotic host fruit and were protein-fed or deprived. Male diet and larval host influenced copula duration, while the time elapsed between matings was affected by the interaction of mating order and male adult diet. Female fecundity was not influenced by female position in mating order or protein inclusion into the male diet. However, mating order and male larval diet influenced female fertilisation success. Importantly, as males mated successively they were less able to induce a refractory period on females, as the last females to mate with a male were more likely to remate and had slightly longer life spans than the first females to mate with males. These results might be attributed to a decrease in male AGPs with increasing male mating frequency. We discuss the role of conditional expression of male mating frequency with respect to A. obliqua’s life history, the trade-off that females face when mating with a successful male, the effect of larval diet on adult sexual performance and the possibility for sexual conflict to occur due to high male mating rates and fitness costs to females.     

农业干旱与气象干旱关联性——以淮河蚌埠闸以上地区为例

基于淮河蚌埠闸以上地区60个站点1961—2015年气象数据,计算作物水分亏缺指数（Crop Water Deficit Index,CWDI）与相对湿润度指数（Relative Moisture Index,M）,以冬小麦干旱作为农业干旱的代表,分析生育期内冬小麦干旱与气象干旱时空特征,并通过游程理论识别30场主要干旱事件的历时、烈度及重现期频率,展开农业干旱与气象干旱关联性研究,结果表明：（1）时间上,冬小麦生育期内农业干旱旱情年占比均高于气象干旱,年际差最多年份均发生在冬前生长期;（2）空间上,全生育期和各个生育期内的冬小麦干旱和气象干旱呈纬向分布,由南至北旱情逐渐加重,冬小麦干旱75%以上中旱占比发生在越冬期至灌浆成熟期,气象干旱仅在越冬期出现;（3）冬小麦干旱相较气象干旱存在延时,且烈度大于气象干旱,平均历时分别为18.8旬和17.3旬,平均烈度分别为12.2和9.9;（4）气象干旱历时达到1.28旬或干旱烈度达到3.35时,便会引发冬小麦干旱,且冬小麦干旱历时、烈度重现期频率大于气象干旱,农业干旱较气象干旱持续周期更长、频率及强度更大,气象干旱加剧农业干旱旱情。     

Distribution and sources of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and phthalic acid esters in water and surface sediment from the Three Gorges Reservoir

After the impoundment of the Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR), the hydrological situation of the reservoir has changed greatly. The concentration and distribution of typical persistent organic pollutants in water and sediment have also changed accordingly. In this study, the concentration, distribution and potential sources of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons(PAHs) and 6 phthalic acid esters(PAEs) during the water drawdown and impoundment periods were investigated in water and sediment from the TGR. According to our results, PAHs and PAEs showed temporal and spatial variations. The mean ΣPAH and ΣPAE concentrations in water and sediment were both higher during the water impoundment period than during the water drawdown period. The water samples from the main stream showed larger ΣPAH concentration fluctuations than those from tributaries. Both the PAH and PAE concentrations meet the Chinese national water environmental quality standard(GB 3838-2002). PAH monomers with 2–3 rings and 4 rings were dominant in water, and 4-ring and 5–6-ring PAHs were dominant in sediment. Di-n-butyl phthalate(DBP) and di-2-ethylhexyl phthalate(DEHP)were the dominant PAE pollutants in the TGR. DBP and DEHP had the highest concentrations in water and sediment, respectively. The main source of PAHs in water from the TGR was petroleum and emissions from coal and biomass combustion, whereas the main sources of PAHs in sediments included coal and biomass combustion, petroleum, and petroleum combustion. The main source of PAEs in water was domestic waste, and the plastics and heavy chemical industries were the main sources of PAEs in sediment.     

关于新时代我国粮食安全观的思考

新时代国内外环境发生了深刻变化,对国家粮食安全战略提出了新要求。重新思考和梳理新形势下粮食安全面临的一系列新问题和新变化,不仅有助于深化对粮食安全问题的系统认知,同时对推动供给侧改革背景下农业产业升级和农村持续发展具有积极意义。目前,我国粮食安全领域陷入产量多、进口多、库存多、补贴多和浪费多的“五多怪圈”。传统农学派、经济学派和资源环境学派等不同学科对粮食安全问题的理解和观点存在较大差异,体现了粮食安全问题的复杂性。粮食安全概念从强调对粮食量的保障和供给、强调市场条件下的个人购买能力,到从基本保障提升到生活品质、强调国家对风险的抵御能力,内涵不断充实和延伸,是社会经济发展的必然选择和要求。现阶段应当从全产业、多尺度、精准化、多维度、多因素视角全方位解读粮食安全的最新内涵。面对新时代,在我国粮食出现阶段性、结构性供大于求的背景下,构建“营养、绿色、多元、开放”的新时代粮食安全观势在必行。