濒海环境下工程装备保养周期的确定方法

采用模糊综合评价法,量化了环境因素对工程装备在濒海环境下保养周期的影响,由此提出保养周期的调整方案,有利于提高工程装备维护保养的科学化水平。基于对大量数据的分析,深入研究了濒海环境下各环境因素对工程装备的影响规律,在此基础上分别建立了主要影响因素的模糊隶属度函数,更为科学地建立了定性指标与定量指标的联系,有效抑制了人为因素在评价过程中的干扰;采用比较标度法建立了权重集,最终得出环境因素的综合影响系数。     

航空导弹贮存期寿命分析

系统地阐述了航空导弹贮存期寿命分析的相关背景和基本概念.从导弹贮存过程中故障发生的原因分类出发,区分了导弹贮存过程中涉及到的贮存寿命、免维修期、维修间隔期、使用寿命等概念.介绍了国内外导弹贮存期寿命分析相关研究领域的进展情况.最后,对航空导弹贮存期寿命分析领域的发展方向及关键技术进行了展望.     

向家坝水库营养盐时空分布特征及滞留效应

向家坝建库后改变了河流原有的水动力、营养盐分布及输移条件.为研究向家坝水库营养盐分布特征及滞留效应,通过2015～2016年分季度水库水质监测结果,分析向家坝水库水体总氮(TN)、总磷(TP)和溶解性硅(SiO_3~(2-)-Si)营养盐时空分布特征、滞留量、滞留效率.研究发现,向家坝水库TN、TP和SiO_3~(2-)-Si营养盐质量浓度均值分别为0. 905、0. 034和7. 98mg·L~(-1).其中,TN质量浓度在城镇人口密集区偏大,分布主要受点源影响;磷营养盐以颗粒态磷为主,TP质量浓度在水库中自上而下沿程降低,SiO_3~(2-)-Si质量浓度分布在时空上差异较小.向家坝对TN、TP和SiO_3~(2-)-Si营养盐滞留量为2. 30×10~4、0. 146×10~4和-2. 4×10~4t·a~(-1).在不同季度,TN和SiO_3~(2-)-Si滞留量有正有负,而TP则始终表现为正滞留. TN、TP和SiO_3~(2-)-Si月平均滞留效率分别为17. 5%、32. 8%和-2. 14%.整体上实际滞留效率表现为丰水期高于枯水期,并且TP的滞留作用更为显著. TN滞留量主要受反硝化作用,以及外源负荷输入影响; SiO_3~(2-)-Si输送通量主要受径流量影响;水库运行周期以及磷的颗粒形态则是TP滞留的主要因素.向家坝水库对营养盐的滞留效应与TN和SiO_3~(2-)-Si质量浓度变化无明显相关性,而水库对TP的滞留效应使TP质量浓度在水库纵向上沿程减小,在各监测样点垂向水深上TP质量浓度则有增大的趋势.     

Chemical characteristics and source apportionment of atmospheric particles during heating period in Harbin, China

Atmospheric particles（total suspended particles（TSPs）; particulate matter（PM） with particle size below 10 μm, PM10; particulate matter with particle size below 2.5 μm, PM2.5）were collected and analyzed during heating and non-heating periods in Harbin. The sources of PM10 and PM2.5were identified by the chemical mass balance（CMB） receptor model.Results indicated that PM2.5/TSP was the most prevalent and PM2.5was the main component of PM210, while the presence of PM10–100was relatively weak. SO-4and NO-3concentrations were more significant than other ions during the heating period. As compared with the non-heating period, Mn, Ni, Pb, S, Si, Ti, Zn, As, Ba, Cd, Cr, Fe and K were relatively higher during the heating period. In particular, Mn, Ni, S, Si, Ti, Zn and As in PM2.5were obviously higher during the heating period. Organic carbon（OC） in the heating period was 2–5 times higher than in the non-heating period. Elemental carbon（EC） did not change much. OC/EC ratios were 8–11 during the heating period, which was much higher than in other Chinese cities（OC/EC： 4–6）. Results from the CMB indicated that 11 pollution sources were identified, of which traffic, coal combustion, secondary sulfate, secondary nitrate, and secondary organic carbon made the greatest contribution. Before the heating period, dust and petrochemical industry made a larger contribution. In the heating period, coal combustion and secondary sulfate were higher. After the heating period, dust and petrochemical industry were higher. Some hazardous components in PM2.5were higher than in PM10, because PM2.5has a higher ability to absorb toxic substances. Thus PM2.5pollution is more significant regarding human health effects in the heating period.     

沼液施用对麦稻茬口期土壤微生物群落结构特征及功能的影响

为揭示麦稻茬口期沼液施用对土壤微生物群落及功能的影响,通过土柱试验,设置麦秆还田后3种处理［无氮肥（CM）、常规施肥（SN）和添加沼液（SZ）］,采用Illumina高通量测序技术分析了土壤淹水后1 d和21 d土壤细菌及真菌群落的组成、多样性和结构差异,并对其功能进行预测.微生物多样性分析表明,1 d时各处理的真菌α多样性指数均显著高于21 d处理且各处理间无显著差异;21 d时各处理细菌Simpson指数开始出现差异,SZ-21处理的细菌Simpson指数高于SN-21处理,而细菌Chao1指数显著低于SN-21处理;细菌群落结构分析表明,1 d时,SN处理的厚壁菌门、绿弯菌门和放线菌门与其它处理差异较大,而21d时,SZ和SN处理的各细菌菌门相对丰度相似;真菌群落结构分析表明,1 d时,SZ处理中的子囊菌门和接合菌门相对丰度高于SN和CM处理;21 d时,SN和SZ处理的子囊菌门相对丰度均低于CM处理,而接合菌门的相对丰度均高于CM处理.NMDS分析表明,21 d时,SN和SZ处理的细菌和真菌群落组成均有逐渐相似的趋势.PICRUSt功能分析表明,不同时期和不同处理的土壤细菌群落在功能层上表现相似,FUNGuild功能预测反映SZ-21和SN-21处理的真菌功能主要差异体现在腐生营养型和病理营养型上.综上说明茬口期施沼液在一定程度上可以替代化肥平衡土壤养分和维持土壤生态功能,但仍可能存在真菌致病风险.     

Application of optimal harvesting decision model to the analysis of Chinese forestry economic policy

This paper firstly extends the single period forest optimal harvesting decision model to infinite periods,in order to indicate how to determine the optimal rotation period aimed at maximizing forest revenue in all directions when repeat planting and harvesting trees on the same plot of earth till infinite future.The study also analyzes the influence of discounted rates,timber price,harvesting costs,planting costs,and tax on the determination of optimal rotation period;and how the optimal rotation period will change when we introduce the factors of continuously rising timber price and ecological revenue.Secondly,the authors introduce the intergenerational equity principle into the above model to design a resource-exploiting mode which satisfies bom the dynamic efficiency principle and the intergenerational equity principle.Last but not least,the research applies the above model to the analysis of Chinese forestry economic policy and explains the economic theory of institutions such as Government Purchasing Ecological Forest,Tree Compensation,and Forestry Subsidization,which provides a necessary theoretical foundation for future application of these new institutions.Besides,in regard to mis theoretical framework,the authors analyze the necessity of the Natural Forest Protection and Grain for Green projects which are currently being implemented in China.We also point out the emphasis of work to insure the project sustainable and successful.Finally,the research discusses the enterprise’s incentive to over-the-quota harvesting and the government’s means of restricting such behavior,which highlights the fact mat improved supervision and higher penalties are helpful in restricting over-the-quota harvesting.     

A case study on period vehicle routing in a refuse collection system

Period vehicle routing, a multi-period extension of the capacitated vehicle routing problem, is the problem of determining a service combination of each customer as well as the vehicle routes in each period of the planning horizon while satisfying the restrictions on the vehicle capacity and the travel distance (time). The problem can typically be found in refuse collection systems in which end-of-life products or wastes are collected and moved to the facilities where further treatment is taken care of. In this study, we report a case study on the problem for the objective of minimising the fleet size, i.e. the maximum number of vehicles simultaneously required over the planning horizon. To solve the problem, we adopt the two-stage heuristic in which an initial solution is obtained by assigning a service combination to each collection point, and then it is improved by changing the service combination assigned to each collection point. Computational experiment was done on the case data and significant improvement over the conventional method is reported.     

分形维数在洪水分期的应用

分数阶积分是分形理论的一个重要分支,应用分数阶积分进行时间序列维数估计,其精度比box维数、量规法等方法高。在此方法的基础上,以金沙江上游石鼓站42年的流量数据为研究对象,对流量散点序列进行了分形分析,在初步证明洪峰散点序列是一种分形的前提下,将分数阶积分应用到洪水分期上,通过估算的维数确定洪水分期原则并定量划分了洪水的分期时间,论证了洪水分期的合理性,并将分数阶积分估算维数法与容量维数法进行比较。对比传统洪水分期方法,分形维数分期结果较为客观,受经验和人为影响较小,但是容量维数方法需要选择大量的洪峰点,分析计算的工作量很大,而分数阶积分具有运算方便、结果准确等优点,而且建立的分形函数关系方便进一步分析研究。〖     

中线调水对汉江下游枯水期的水安全影响研究

针对现状以及南水北调中线工程不同调水方案下的水文条件,从可利用水资源量和水环境容量两个方面来研究中线调水对汉江下游枯水期水量和水质状况的影响。以人均月可利用水资源量和人均月水环境容量作为评价指标,提出相应的水安全评价方法和评价标准,来定量评价调水前后汉江下游枯水期水安全的变化程度。研究结论认为：各调水方案对汉江下游水量安全的影响程度比水质安全大;调水对枯水期水安全影响较大的月份是12月、1月和2月,而11月、3月则要好一些;现状条件下的水安全评价结果都在“较为安全”级别以上,而各调水方案的实施对汉江下游水安全都有一定影响,其中以方案Ⅱ的影响最大,方案Ⅲ则由于引江济汉补偿工程的兴建,其水安全保障程度要高于其他方案.     

“十四五”我国VOCs排放总量控制方案研究与建议

我国大气污染防治工作已从以细颗粒物(PM_2.5)控制为主转变为PM_2.5与臭氧(O3)协同控制新阶段,O3已成为空气质量达标和持续改善的重要制约因素。挥发性有机物(VOCs)是生成臭氧的重要前体物之一,大幅削减VOCs的排放量是现阶段O3污染防治的关键。本文基于“十四五”我国VOCs排放的预测结果,提出了VOCs总量控制的总体思路、范围和技术路线,设计了VOCs排放总量控制方案,确定了总量分配指标和指标权重,进一步得出各省(区、市)2025年控制情景下VOCs排放的削减率、削减量以及排放总量,并以此为基础对“十四五”时期VOCs总量控制提出了以区域总量控制为主,结合重点行业、重点企业集群实施总量控制;强化重点行业、重点企业、集群或园区综合治理;建立以环境质量为核心,综合VOCs排放量核查核算及减排绩效评估的考核体系;同时提出了建立市场化的减排机制和舆论监督的实施机制等建议。