Discriminate Analysis for Dust Storm Prediction in the Gobi and Steppe Regions in Mongolia

A discriminate analysis method for probability forecast of dust storms in Mongolia has been developed. The prediction method uses data recorded at 23 meteorological stations in the Gobi and steppe regions of Mongolia, including surface air pressure and geo-potential height at the 500-hPa level on grid points, and weather maps from 1975 to 1990. Weather elements such as air temperature, pressure, geo-potential height etc, which influence the formation of dust storms, are prepared as predictors. To select the most informative/important predictors (variables), we used a mean correlation matrix of variables together with the Mahalonobis distance, and correlation coefficients between dust storms and predictors with an orthogonalization for removing correlated predictors. The most informative predictors for dust storm prediction are intensities of surface cyclones and migratory anticyclones, passage of cold fronts, the horizontal gradients of the surface air pressure in the cold frontal zone, cyclonic circulations from the ground surface up to the 500-hPa level, the geo-potential height at 500-hPa level and its temporal changes. Selected predictors are used in discriminate analysis for formulating dust storm prediction equations. Sandstorm data have been classified into three classes, viz., strong, moderate and weak dust storms, depending on their intensities, durations and areas covered. Predictions of the probabilities of dust storm occurrence use the prediction equations for each class. The prediction is made from 12 hours to 36 hours. Verification of the probability forecasts of dust storms is also shown. The accuracy of forecasts is 72.2–79.9% with the data used for developing equations (dependent variables), in contrast to 67.1–72.0% with unrelated data for deriving equations (independent variables).     

顶空气相色谱法测定食品中甜蜜素含量

采用顶空气相色谱法测定食品中甜蜜素含量,探讨了气液相平衡条件及色谱条件的选择,实验结果表明甜蜜素的标准溶液在0.1-0.4μg/l范围内具有良好的线性关系,回收率为87.5%-101.8%,相对标准偏差为2.6%.     

Arts as a vehicle for community building and post‐disaster development

Use of the arts in international aid is common in an ad hoc form, but it has not been systematically theorised or evaluated. The arts have the potential to be a culturally contextualised and sustainable intervention for adults and children in the aftermath of war or disaster. On the micro level, the arts are a method to enable the retrieval and reprocessing of traumatic memories that are often encoded in images rather than in words. On a macro level, they can help to reconstruct a group narrative of a disaster as well as mobilise people back into control of their lives. This paper researches a long‐term project using arts in Sri Lanka following the civil war and tsunami. A central finding is the need to understand arts within their cultural context, and their usefulness in strengthening the voices and problem‐solving capacities of the victims of the disaster.     

The role of digital data entry in participatory environmental monitoring

Many argue that monitoring conducted exclusively by scientists is insufficient to address ongoing environmental challenges. One solution entails the use of mobile digital devices in participatory monitoring (PM) programs. But how digital data entry affects programs with varying levels of stakeholder participation, from nonscientists collecting field data to nonscientists administering every step of a monitoring program, remains unclear. We reviewed the successes, in terms of management interventions and sustainability, of 107 monitoring programs described in the literature (hereafter programs) and compared these with case studies from our PM experiences in Australia, Canada, Ethiopia, Ghana, Greenland, and Vietnam (hereafter cases). Our literature review showed that participatory programs were less likely to use digital devices, and 2 of our 3 more participatory cases were also slow to adopt digital data entry. Programs that were participatory and used digital devices were more likely to report management actions, which was consistent with cases in Ethiopia, Greenland, and Australia. Programs engaging volunteers were more frequently reported as ongoing, but those involving digital data entry were less often sustained when data collectors were volunteers. For the Vietnamese and Canadian cases, sustainability was undermined by a mismatch in stakeholder objectives. In the Ghanaian case, complex field protocols diminished monitoring sustainability. Innovative technologies attract interest, but the foundation of effective participatory adaptive monitoring depends more on collaboratively defined questions, objectives, conceptual models, and monitoring approaches. When this foundation is built through effective partnerships, digital data entry can enable the collection of more data of higher quality. Without this foundation, or when implemented ineffectively or unnecessarily, digital data entry can be an additional expense that distracts from core monitoring objectives and undermines project sustainability. The appropriate role of digital data entry in PM likely depends more on the context in which it is used and less on the technology itself.     

三峡蓄水期间汉丰湖消落区营养状态时间变化

为探明三峡蓄水后汉丰湖消落区水质营养状态的变化特征,于2013年10月至2014年2月对水质进行连续观察,测定了水质物理参数、营养盐与叶绿素(Chl-a)的质量浓度.结果表明,水体中营养盐与Chl-a质量浓度的增加,在淹水后营养程度有升高现象,2014年2月与2013年10月相比,TN、TP、高锰酸盐指数与Chl-a质量浓度分别增加了4.7、1.0、0.2、3.27倍,TN、TP质量浓度均超过藻类生长限值,随滞留时间延长易造成水体富营养化,应引起重视.Chl-a单因子评价反映出水质由贫营养向富营养演变.TN/TP结果表明,TN、TP分别在不同时间内制约着藻类的生长;2013年10~12月与2014年2月,藻类生长受TN限制;2014年1月,藻类生长受TP限制.Chl-a与p H、DO、NH+4-N、NO-3-N、TN、高锰酸盐指数及TP呈显著正相关,而与SD、水温呈显著负相关;蓄水期间,水质受到了同一污染源的影响.因子分析结果表明,汉丰湖消落区水质主要受p H、DO、NO-3-N、TN的影响,同时Chl-a、TP、NH+4-N与好氧性有机物的污染不可忽视;在蓄水稳定初期水体具有自净能力,随蓄水滞留时间的延长,水质污染程度整体上呈现逐步恶化的趋势,应加以控制;三峡蓄水期间,南河、东河营养程度相对较高,应加强治理.     

经口摄入土壤多溴联苯醚生物可给性变化及影响因素的体外消化模拟

误食土壤是污染物(如多溴联苯醚)人体(主要是儿童)暴露的重要途径,人体消化道内污染物吸收的生物可给性是针对此种暴露方式进行定量风险评估的有效途径之一.本研究采用体外消化实验模拟3种不同有机碳含量的天然土壤中典型多溴联苯醚(BDE-28、BDE-47、BDE-99和BDE-153)在胃和小肠消化液中的释放,验证部分消化释放的多溴联苯醚因消化残留固相表面的再吸附造成低估实际生物可给性,并通过不同水土比的拟合计算予以校正.结果表明,校正后的消化率普遍高于校正前;就不同土样而言,BDE-28、BDE-47、BDE-99和BDE-153在不同初始暴露浓度条件下平均提升比例范围分别为14.3%~42.3%、11.1%~32.1%、4.9%~12.3%和0.0%~7.7%.因此,未经校正的消化率会显著低估PBDEs消化道内的生物可给性,尤其是低溴代组分及PBDEs初始浓度较高或高TOC含量的土样.校正后BDE-28、BDE-47、BDE-99和BDE-153的消化率分别维持在21.9%~54.7%、18.8%~43.1%、13.4%~27.2%和9.3%~19.9%.此外,PBDEs的消化率与其辛醇-水分配系数的对数lg KOW呈显著负相关;而与土壤TOC含量及PBDEs初始暴露浓度的相关性并不显著,尤其是高溴代组分.     

溶藻活性物质对棕囊藻溶藻及其脂肪酸影响的模拟

为了探讨芽孢杆菌B1分泌的胞外溶藻活性物质对球形棕囊藻的溶藻特性和藻毒素物质脂肪酸的影响,比较了模拟自然水体中叶绿素a、p H、溶解氧DO、高锰酸盐指数和营养元素N、P浓度在溶藻前后的变化,并利用GC-MS检测了球形棕囊藻脂肪酸的成分和含量.用体积比1∶100的芽孢杆菌B1胞外活性物质处理模拟水体14 d,发现水体中叶绿素a、p H值和高锰酸盐指数随处理时间的增加而降低,DO和N、P浓度随处理时间的增加而增加.在第14 d时,处理组水体中p H值由8.50降低到7.51,叶绿素a降低82.3%(P0.05),DO增加29.5%(P0.05),高锰酸盐指数降低55.2%(P0.01).NH+4-N、NO-2-N、NO-3-N和PO3-4-P浓度分别增加了0.46、1.50、6.24和1.30倍.投加活性物质处理14 d后,球形棕囊藻藻毒素中的主要3种脂肪酸C18:2、C16:0和C18:1分别降低了100%、97.7%和85.4%(P0.01),总脂肪酸含量降低83.4%(P0.01).结果表明,芽孢杆菌B1胞外溶藻活性物质在模拟自然水体中能有效抑制球形棕囊藻的生长,并降低藻毒素脂肪酸的含量.研究结果为芽孢杆菌B1胞外活性物质的生态安全性应用提供理论基础.     

开顶式气室原位研究水稻汞富集对大气汞浓度升高的响应

采用开顶式气室熏气实验和土壤加汞培育实验,原位研究水稻各器官汞富集对大气汞质量浓度升高的响应关系.结果表明,水稻根中汞含量与大气汞质量浓度无显著相关性(P0.05),与土壤汞含量呈显著正相关(R=0.998 8,P0.05),表明水稻根中的汞主要来自于对土壤中汞的吸收累积.水稻茎中汞含量随大气汞质量浓度的升高呈线性增加(RB=0.964 6,RU=0.983 1,P0.05),且上部茎中汞含量高于下部茎;茎下部汞含量随土壤汞含量的升高呈线性增加(R=0.990 1,P0.05),茎上部汞含量随土壤汞含量的升高呈二次拟合增加(R=0.998 9,P0.05),且下部茎汞含量高于上部茎,说明茎汞含量受土壤和大气汞浓度的共同影响.水稻叶中汞含量与大气汞质量浓度呈显著正相关(R=0.998 5,P0.05),与土壤汞含量也有很好的线性关系(R=0.998 3,P=0.058 5),表明水稻从大气吸收的汞主要积累在叶片中,从土壤吸收的汞主要富集在根中并通过茎部向叶部传输.利用实验建立的函数关系对水稻地上生物质中汞的大气来源估算,至少60%~94%和56%~77%水稻叶和上部茎中的汞来自大气,而大气对下部茎仅贡献8%~56%.由此水稻地上部分生物质汞主要来自对大气汞的吸收,为区域大气汞的收支及汞循环模型提供理论依据.     

分子生物学技术在水处理中的应用研究进展

利用现代分子生物学技术对微生物进行分析和研究,以解决传统微生物分析成本高、速度慢、准确度较低和灵敏度较差等缺点。介绍分子生物学技术在水处理中的应用现状,并对未来发展方向提出建议。目前分子生物学技术在供水工程中主要用于水中细菌、病毒、原生动物、蠕虫等病原微生物的快速检测以及管网微生物种群的分析,在污水处理中主要用于脱氮除磷过程菌群数量和空间分布的剖析、污泥膨胀成因分析以及监测微生物种群多样性来优化处理工艺。分子生物学技术的深入研究将进一步促进水行业的发展。     

双台子河口湿地植被修复生境健康评价方法研究

以2014—2015年双台子河口滨海湿地植被修复20个站位调查资料为基础,对湿地修复结构指标、功能指标和环境指标进行研究,结合湿地生态系统健康理论,构建湿地生态环境健康评价指标体系。运用层次分析法(AHP)确定权重,对各个指标赋予权重,将健康评价分为3个等级,确立了生态健康评价方法,对近岸破损湿地翅碱蓬修复生境进行评价。进一步引用评价净影响值(EI)方法判断生境修复前、后的健康对比状态,从而确定翅碱蓬对该破损湿地的修复效果显著。从景观生态学和健康评价角度分析来看,建立此评价方法是可行的,可为今后湿地的管理与保护提供科学依据。