基于模糊信息概率区间数的突发地质灾害降水因子评价研究

根据2010、2012两年云南省的820个地质灾害监测记录,基于模糊信息概率区间数的大小来开展降水量因子的评价研究。结果表明:突发地质灾害发生前10 d的单日降水量与灾害的关系很小,基本不能用于预警模型的建立和风险评价分析;累积降水量与突发地质灾害关系明显,特别是5~10 d的累积降水量预测概括率已达60%以上,可以用于突发地质灾害预警模型的建立和实际的监测预警;加衰减系数的有效累积降水量因子对突发地质灾害预测效果并无提升,与普通累积降水量因子相比并无优势。     

Contrasting responses of seed yield to elevated carbon dioxide under field conditions within Phaseolus vulgaris

The rising concentration of carbon dioxide [CO₂] in the atmosphere represents an increase in a growth-limiting resource for C₃ crop species. Identification of lines or characteristics of lines which have superior yield at elevated [CO₂] could aid in adaptation to this global change. While intraspecific variation in responses to elevated [CO₂] has been found in several species, intraspecific differences in crop yield responses to elevated [CO₂] under field conditions have seldom been documented. In this 4-year study, the responses of photosynthesis, growth, pod number, seed number and size, and seed yield to the elevation of [CO₂] to 180 μmol mol⁻¹ above the current ambient concentration were examined in four varieties of Phaseolus vulgaris in the field, using open-top chambers. There was a significant variety by [CO₂] interaction for seed yield, with seed yield at elevated [CO₂] ranging from 0.89 to 1.39 times that at ambient [CO₂] (mean 1.17×) in the different varieties, when averaged over 4 years. The highest yielding variety at elevated [CO₂] was not the highest yielding variety at ambient [CO₂]. The varieties with the largest and smallest yield responses both had an indeterminate growth habit. Down-regulation of photosynthesis at elevated [CO₂] only occurred in the two indeterminate varieties, and there was no significant correlation between the response of single leaf photosynthetic rate and the response of seed yield to elevated [CO₂] among varieties, nor between the responses of stem mass and seed yield. The change in the number of pods at elevated [CO₂] was the primary determinant of the response of seed yield. These results indicate that significant variation in the response of seed yield to elevated [CO₂] under field conditions does exist among varieties of P. vulgaris, and that variation in the response of pod and seed number may be more important than variation in photosynthetic response.     

城市土地利用类型与PM2.5浓度相关性研究——以武汉市为例

随着我国工业化的不断发展,在我国的主要经济发展地区的雾霾天气不断爆发,使我国的大气环境日益恶化,严重影响了人们的日常生活和身体健康。PM2.5作为雾霾的重要组成成分,也日渐成为环境领域的研究热点问题。随着全球性变化研究领域逐渐加强了对土地利用与生态环境的相关研究,因此无论从法律和社会经济发展的角度,还是从生态资源保护与环境可持续发展的角度,土地利用与PM2.5的相关研究都显得相当重要。研究目的:分析武汉市各类用地类型与PM2.5浓度的相关性程度。研究方法:使用ENVI与ArcGIS对武汉市2013年MODIS气溶胶产品进行空间分析与插值处理,再应用SPSS将其与武汉市2013年10个观测点的PM2.5浓度数据作相关性分析,以证实MODIS气溶胶厚度与PM2.5浓度的相关性,并建立两者的线性回归方程,然后利用计算后的武汉市整体PM2.5浓度分布与各土地利用类型进行相关性研究。研究结果:武汉市PM2.5浓度有明显的空间分布特征,绿化面积比例与PM2.5浓度呈显著负相关,建设用地面积比例与PM2.5浓度呈显著正相关,未利用地面积比例虽然与PM2.5浓度呈正相关,但相关性较低,而耕地与水体对PM2.5浓度没有显著影响。研究结论:土地利用类型对武汉市PM2.5浓度的分布有显著的影响,其与搭载MODIS传感器的遥感卫星监测方式的结合能成为研究大范围特定区域PM2.5浓度空间格局的新方法,并且增加城市绿化面积,控制建设用地规模能有效减少PM2.5浓度。     

上海城市交通与机动车排气污染调查

上海市机动车保有量逐年增加，车辆的排气污染愈来愈严重，据调查，１９９７年机动画排放的ＣＯ，ＭＮＨＣ，ＮＯＸ和ＰＭ分别达到５８．６，９．０８，６．２０和０．２３万吨。中心城区机动车排放的ＣＯ，ＮＭＨＣ和ＮＯＸ污染物５０％以上来自于小型车，是影响上海城区环境空气质量的主要污染源。     

Effects of calibration on L-THIA GIS runoff and pollutant estimation

Urbanization can result in alteration of a watershed's hydrologic response and water quality. To simulate hydrologic and water quality impacts of land use changes, the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L-THIA) system has been used. The L-THIA system estimates pollutant loading based on direct runoff quantity and land use based pollutant coefficients. The accurate estimation of direct runoff is important in assessing water quality impacts of land use changes. An automated program was developed to calibrate the L-THIA model using the millions of curve number (CN) combinations associated with land uses and hydrologic soil groups. L-THIA calibration for the Little Eagle Creek (LEC) watershed near Indianapolis, Indiana was performed using land use data for 1991 and daily rainfall data for six months of 1991 (January 1-June 30) to minimize errors associated with use of different temporal land use data and rainfall data. For the calibration period, the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.60 for estimated and observed direct runoff. The calibrated CN values were used for validation of the model for the same year (July 1-December 31), and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.60 for estimated and observed direct runoff. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.52 for January 1, 1991 to December 31, 1991 using uncalibrated CN values. As shown in this study, the use of better input parameters for the L-THIA model can improve accuracy. The effects on direct runoff and pollutant estimation of the calibrated CN values in the L-THIA model were investigated for the LEC. Following calibration, the estimated average annual direct runoff for the LEC watershed increased by 34%, total nitrogen by 24%, total phosphorus by 22%, and total lead by 43%. This study demonstrates that the L-THIA model should be calibrated and validated prior to application in a particular watershed to more accurately assess the effects of land use changes on hydrology and water quality.     

Storage of CO2 in saline aquifers: Effects of gravity, viscous, and capillary forces on amount and timing of trapping

CO₂ can be effectively immobilized during CO₂ injection into saline aquifers by residual trapping – also known as capillary trapping – a process resulting from capillary snap-off of isolated CO₂ bubbles. Simulations of CO₂ injection were performed to investigate the interplay of viscous and gravity forces and capillary trapping of CO₂. Results of those simulations show that gas injection processes in which gravitational forces are weak compared to viscous forces (low gravity number N_gv) trap significantly more CO₂ than do flows with strong gravitational forces relative to the viscous forces (high N_gv). The results also indicate that over a wide range of gravity numbers (N_gv), significant fractions of the trapping of CO₂ can occur relatively quickly. The amount of CO₂ that is trapped after injection ceases is demonstrated to correlate with N_gv. For some simulated displacements, effects of capillary pressure and aquifer dip angle on the amount and the rate of trapping are reported. Trapping increases when effects of capillary pressure and aquifer inclination are included in the model. Finally we show that injection schemes such as alternating injection of brine and CO₂ or brine injection after CO₂ injection can also enhance the trapping behavior.     

IMPACT OF COAL SURFACE MINING ON THREE OHIO WATERSHEDS - SURFACE-WATER HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT: A study was conducted to determine the effects of mining and reclaiming originally undisturbed watersheds on surface-water hydrology in three small experimental watersheds in Ohio. Approximately six years of data were collected at each site, with differing lengths of premining (Phase 1), mining and reclamation (Phase 2), and post-reclamation (Phase 3) periods. Mining and reclamation activities showed no consistent pattern iii base-flow, and caused slightly more frequent higher daily flow volumes. Phase 2 activities can cause reductions in seasonal variation in double mass curves compared with Phase 1. Restoration of seasonal variations was noticeably apparent at one site during Phase 3. The responses of the watersheds to rainfall intensities causing larger peak flow rates generally decreased due to mining and reclamation, but tended to exceed responses observed in Phase 1 during Phase 3. Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) curve numbers increased due to mining and reclamation (Phase 2), ranging from 83 to 91. During Phase 3, curve numbers remained approximately constant from Phase 2, ranging from 87 to 91.     

RELATIONSHIP OF NITRATE CONCENTRATIONS TO DISTANCE OF WELL SCREEN OPENINGS BELOW CASING WATER LEVELS1

ABSTRACT: Data from 54 well in central and eastern Kansas developed in unconsolidated deposits of Quaternary age indicate that nitrate concentrations are inversely related to the depth of the well screen opening below the water level in the well casing because this relationship was found to exist in an area of Nebraska and in a large area of Kansas, the relationship is generally valid over a wide geo- graphical area. In addition, the data indicate that the incidence of nitrate concentrations exceeding 45 milligrams per liter and nitrate concentrations, in general, are significantly lower in water from wells with screens deeper than 25 feet below the water table in unconfined aquifers or where screens are placed in deep confined aquifers. No concentrations of nitrate greater than 45 milligrams per liter were in obseved wells where screens were deeper than 60 feet below the casing water level. These findings suggest that general placement of well screens as far below the water table as possible in unconfined unconsolidated aquifers in Kansas. and possibly other areas of the Midwest, may be an effective measure in preventing undesirable nitrate concentrations in ground water supplies. particularly in areas where nitrate is a problem.     

DEVELOPMENT OF WATERSIIED MODELS FOR TWO SIERRA NEVADA BASINS USING A GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: Techniques were developed using vector and raster data in a geographic information system (GIS) to define the spatial variability of watershed characteristics in the north-central Sierra Nevada of California and Nevada and to assist in computing model input parameters. The U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, a physically based, distributed-parameter watershed model, simulates runoff for a basin by partitioning a watershed into areas that each have a homogeneous hydrologic response to precipitation or snowmelt. These land units, known as hydrologic-response units (HRU's), are characterized according to physical properties, such as altitude, slope, aspect, land cover, soils, and geology, and climate patterns. Digital data were used to develop a GIS data base and HRIJ classification for the American River and Carson River basins. The following criteria are used in delineating HRU's: (1) Data layers are hydrologically significant and have a resolution appropriate to the watershed's natural spatial variability, (2) the technique for delineating HRU's accommodates different classification criteria and is reproducible, and (3) HRU's are not limited by hydrographic-subbasin boundaries. HRU's so defined are spatially noncontiguous. The result is an objective, efficient methodology for characterizing a watershed and for delineating HRU's. Also, digital data can be analyzed and transformed to assist in defining parameters and in calibrating the model.