西北地区雷暴气候特征分析

雷电产生于中尺度对流天气系统,具有明显的局地和时效特征,对西北地区气象站点历史雷暴资料的统计发现,夏季最强,春秋次之,冬季几乎无雷暴发生;地理分布呈三大中心区;与海拔高度、经度、纬度的相关分析及年际变化分析表明,地形地势是影响该地区雷暴的主要因子.高原上的雷暴云较其它地区容易产生冰雹,冰雹日数与雷暴日数比值最大为0.36.西北夏季大部分地方的闪电密度小于1个.km-2.a-1,夏季3个月的闪电密度有3个最强中心,新疆西部是最强的闪电密度中心,超过9个.km-2.a-1,7月中心最强,6月次之,8月较弱.     

旅游开发中的区域联动战略--以安徽省"两山一湖"地区为例

阐述了旅游区域联动发展战略的内涵、类型、原则及意义,分析了安徽省"两山一湖"地区实施旅游区域联动战略的必要性、可能性和发展现状,提出了若干对策.     

生态示范区可持续发展灰色评估系统设计应用

介绍了如何在国家级生态示范区的可持续发展评估中运用灰色系统理论构建定量评估系统模型,并给出了关系型指标表、量纲模型、多元灰色预测模型和发展系数模型以及应用实例.根据该评估系统模型所开发的灰色评估系统由数学模型、计算机软件和硬件组成,可自动完成量纲统一、指标预测、相关分析、综合评估和趋势图表的运算和输出.     

大学生沉溺网络透析及防范措施

因沉溺网上聊天、交友、玩游戏、看色情而影响大学生学习、生活、身体健康,以致诱发犯罪的问题如洪水猛兽席卷而来.防止大学生沉溺网络,走向犯罪是当前社会、学校、家庭不容忽视的问题.立法、执法、管理、教育应形成合力.     

Discriminate Analysis for Dust Storm Prediction in the Gobi and Steppe Regions in Mongolia

A discriminate analysis method for probability forecast of dust storms in Mongolia has been developed. The prediction method uses data recorded at 23 meteorological stations in the Gobi and steppe regions of Mongolia, including surface air pressure and geo-potential height at the 500-hPa level on grid points, and weather maps from 1975 to 1990. Weather elements such as air temperature, pressure, geo-potential height etc, which influence the formation of dust storms, are prepared as predictors. To select the most informative/important predictors (variables), we used a mean correlation matrix of variables together with the Mahalonobis distance, and correlation coefficients between dust storms and predictors with an orthogonalization for removing correlated predictors. The most informative predictors for dust storm prediction are intensities of surface cyclones and migratory anticyclones, passage of cold fronts, the horizontal gradients of the surface air pressure in the cold frontal zone, cyclonic circulations from the ground surface up to the 500-hPa level, the geo-potential height at 500-hPa level and its temporal changes. Selected predictors are used in discriminate analysis for formulating dust storm prediction equations. Sandstorm data have been classified into three classes, viz., strong, moderate and weak dust storms, depending on their intensities, durations and areas covered. Predictions of the probabilities of dust storm occurrence use the prediction equations for each class. The prediction is made from 12 hours to 36 hours. Verification of the probability forecasts of dust storms is also shown. The accuracy of forecasts is 72.2–79.9% with the data used for developing equations (dependent variables), in contrast to 67.1–72.0% with unrelated data for deriving equations (independent variables).     

Arts as a vehicle for community building and post‐disaster development

Use of the arts in international aid is common in an ad hoc form, but it has not been systematically theorised or evaluated. The arts have the potential to be a culturally contextualised and sustainable intervention for adults and children in the aftermath of war or disaster. On the micro level, the arts are a method to enable the retrieval and reprocessing of traumatic memories that are often encoded in images rather than in words. On a macro level, they can help to reconstruct a group narrative of a disaster as well as mobilise people back into control of their lives. This paper researches a long‐term project using arts in Sri Lanka following the civil war and tsunami. A central finding is the need to understand arts within their cultural context, and their usefulness in strengthening the voices and problem‐solving capacities of the victims of the disaster.     

The role of digital data entry in participatory environmental monitoring

Many argue that monitoring conducted exclusively by scientists is insufficient to address ongoing environmental challenges. One solution entails the use of mobile digital devices in participatory monitoring (PM) programs. But how digital data entry affects programs with varying levels of stakeholder participation, from nonscientists collecting field data to nonscientists administering every step of a monitoring program, remains unclear. We reviewed the successes, in terms of management interventions and sustainability, of 107 monitoring programs described in the literature (hereafter programs) and compared these with case studies from our PM experiences in Australia, Canada, Ethiopia, Ghana, Greenland, and Vietnam (hereafter cases). Our literature review showed that participatory programs were less likely to use digital devices, and 2 of our 3 more participatory cases were also slow to adopt digital data entry. Programs that were participatory and used digital devices were more likely to report management actions, which was consistent with cases in Ethiopia, Greenland, and Australia. Programs engaging volunteers were more frequently reported as ongoing, but those involving digital data entry were less often sustained when data collectors were volunteers. For the Vietnamese and Canadian cases, sustainability was undermined by a mismatch in stakeholder objectives. In the Ghanaian case, complex field protocols diminished monitoring sustainability. Innovative technologies attract interest, but the foundation of effective participatory adaptive monitoring depends more on collaboratively defined questions, objectives, conceptual models, and monitoring approaches. When this foundation is built through effective partnerships, digital data entry can enable the collection of more data of higher quality. Without this foundation, or when implemented ineffectively or unnecessarily, digital data entry can be an additional expense that distracts from core monitoring objectives and undermines project sustainability. The appropriate role of digital data entry in PM likely depends more on the context in which it is used and less on the technology itself.     

三峡蓄水期间汉丰湖消落区营养状态时间变化

为探明三峡蓄水后汉丰湖消落区水质营养状态的变化特征,于2013年10月至2014年2月对水质进行连续观察,测定了水质物理参数、营养盐与叶绿素(Chl-a)的质量浓度.结果表明,水体中营养盐与Chl-a质量浓度的增加,在淹水后营养程度有升高现象,2014年2月与2013年10月相比,TN、TP、高锰酸盐指数与Chl-a质量浓度分别增加了4.7、1.0、0.2、3.27倍,TN、TP质量浓度均超过藻类生长限值,随滞留时间延长易造成水体富营养化,应引起重视.Chl-a单因子评价反映出水质由贫营养向富营养演变.TN/TP结果表明,TN、TP分别在不同时间内制约着藻类的生长;2013年10~12月与2014年2月,藻类生长受TN限制;2014年1月,藻类生长受TP限制.Chl-a与p H、DO、NH+4-N、NO-3-N、TN、高锰酸盐指数及TP呈显著正相关,而与SD、水温呈显著负相关;蓄水期间,水质受到了同一污染源的影响.因子分析结果表明,汉丰湖消落区水质主要受p H、DO、NO-3-N、TN的影响,同时Chl-a、TP、NH+4-N与好氧性有机物的污染不可忽视;在蓄水稳定初期水体具有自净能力,随蓄水滞留时间的延长,水质污染程度整体上呈现逐步恶化的趋势,应加以控制;三峡蓄水期间,南河、东河营养程度相对较高,应加强治理.     

经口摄入土壤多溴联苯醚生物可给性变化及影响因素的体外消化模拟

误食土壤是污染物(如多溴联苯醚)人体(主要是儿童)暴露的重要途径,人体消化道内污染物吸收的生物可给性是针对此种暴露方式进行定量风险评估的有效途径之一.本研究采用体外消化实验模拟3种不同有机碳含量的天然土壤中典型多溴联苯醚(BDE-28、BDE-47、BDE-99和BDE-153)在胃和小肠消化液中的释放,验证部分消化释放的多溴联苯醚因消化残留固相表面的再吸附造成低估实际生物可给性,并通过不同水土比的拟合计算予以校正.结果表明,校正后的消化率普遍高于校正前;就不同土样而言,BDE-28、BDE-47、BDE-99和BDE-153在不同初始暴露浓度条件下平均提升比例范围分别为14.3%~42.3%、11.1%~32.1%、4.9%~12.3%和0.0%~7.7%.因此,未经校正的消化率会显著低估PBDEs消化道内的生物可给性,尤其是低溴代组分及PBDEs初始浓度较高或高TOC含量的土样.校正后BDE-28、BDE-47、BDE-99和BDE-153的消化率分别维持在21.9%~54.7%、18.8%~43.1%、13.4%~27.2%和9.3%~19.9%.此外,PBDEs的消化率与其辛醇-水分配系数的对数lg KOW呈显著负相关;而与土壤TOC含量及PBDEs初始暴露浓度的相关性并不显著,尤其是高溴代组分.     

开顶式气室原位研究水稻汞富集对大气汞浓度升高的响应

采用开顶式气室熏气实验和土壤加汞培育实验,原位研究水稻各器官汞富集对大气汞质量浓度升高的响应关系.结果表明,水稻根中汞含量与大气汞质量浓度无显著相关性(P0.05),与土壤汞含量呈显著正相关(R=0.998 8,P0.05),表明水稻根中的汞主要来自于对土壤中汞的吸收累积.水稻茎中汞含量随大气汞质量浓度的升高呈线性增加(RB=0.964 6,RU=0.983 1,P0.05),且上部茎中汞含量高于下部茎;茎下部汞含量随土壤汞含量的升高呈线性增加(R=0.990 1,P0.05),茎上部汞含量随土壤汞含量的升高呈二次拟合增加(R=0.998 9,P0.05),且下部茎汞含量高于上部茎,说明茎汞含量受土壤和大气汞浓度的共同影响.水稻叶中汞含量与大气汞质量浓度呈显著正相关(R=0.998 5,P0.05),与土壤汞含量也有很好的线性关系(R=0.998 3,P=0.058 5),表明水稻从大气吸收的汞主要积累在叶片中,从土壤吸收的汞主要富集在根中并通过茎部向叶部传输.利用实验建立的函数关系对水稻地上生物质中汞的大气来源估算,至少60%~94%和56%~77%水稻叶和上部茎中的汞来自大气,而大气对下部茎仅贡献8%~56%.由此水稻地上部分生物质汞主要来自对大气汞的吸收,为区域大气汞的收支及汞循环模型提供理论依据.