应用GIS-ANN进行土地盐碱化危险度评价--以吉林西部平原为例

土地盐碱化可破坏生态环境，制约社会经济的可持续发展，已成为一种严重的环境灾害。应用GIS技术提取土地盐碱化和环境信息，采用关联度法分析了土地盐碱化与各环境要素之间的关系，应用人工神经网络模型(ANN)进行了盐碱化危险度评价。结果表明，吉林西部平原有53．97％的土地盐碱化危险度为Ⅳ级和V级。实践证明，应用GIS—ANN集成技术评价土地盐碱化的危险度是一种较好的方法，为土地盐碱化的防治提供了科学依据。     

关于建立许家峪生态农业示范村的可行性研究

生态农业示范村建设是进行综合生态农业示范体系研究的基础,也是神态农业经营理念和技术推广的重要途径。因此,地理、交通、自然和人文环境的选择,生产经营模式的确定对生态农业经营效益和示范影响效果至关重要。本文通过对许家峪村的现状和作为冀东生态农业示范村的优势和存在问题以及适宜的经营模式进行了剖析和阐述。     

多目标灰色关联度决策模型分析

本文针对多目标决策的复杂性,运用灰色系统分析方法和物元分析理论,建立了决策方案的评价体系并对评价指标进行规范化处理。以决策方案的灰色关联度作为评判准则,建立了一种目标灰色关联度决策模型。     

内江市沱江流域实现可持续发展的途径探讨$$$$##6研究方法

本文对内江市沱江流域经济-环境系统1995～2010年时段可持续发展进行了预测分析，指出了该区域实现可持续发展的可能途径和对策措施．     

PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR NITRATE LOAD IN THE BULL RUN WATERSHED,OREGON1

ABSTRACT: Predictive models for nitrate in four streams in the Bull Run Watershed in the Cascade Mountains of Oregon were developed from a record of 17 years of nitrate samples. The models are time series regression models written in terms of Log(nitrate load). The independent variables are logarithm of 14-day mean daily stream discharge, current day's precipitation, logarithm of the previous day's precipitation, total precipitation for the previous seven days, a hydrograph position variable that indicates rising or falling limb, and average maximum air temperature for the preceding 14 days. The models describe annual cycle and seasonable trends and variations in nitrate load, but are unable to describe large day to day variations like those associated with hydrograph peaks.     

河流水质灾害中的S—P方程稳态分析和临界氧亏计算

污染物对水环境的影响主要发生在枯水期，此时水流状态处于稳态．Streeter－phelps（S－P）方程能预测简单稳态条件下的水质状况，并具有较高的计算织亏的精度．     

自然灾害变动的集成预测模型及其应用

本文提出了以非线性回归拟合发展趋势、正弦函数逼近周期变动和马尔可夫链刻划随机扰动的集成预测模型，并应用于山东省农业自然灾害成灾面积的变动规律模拟，得到了较好的预测效果。理论和实践表明，集成预测模型优于传统的单模型预测，为预测具有复杂机制的自然灾害演变提供了一种新方法。     

热辐射的破坏准则和池火灾的破坏半径

热辐射破坏是发生在开放气环境中的池火灾的主要破坏机理。本文讨论了热辐射的破坏准则，提出预测池火灾破坏半径的方法，进行了数值模拟计算，分而和时纳了池火灾的基本规律     

A framework to assess regional environmental impacts of dedicated energy crop production

Numerous studies have evaluated air quality and greenhouse gas mitigation benefits of biomass energy systems, but the potential environmental impacts associated with large-scale changes in land-use patterns needed to produce energy crops have not been quantified. This paper presents a framework to assess the potential soil, water, and biodiversity impacts that may result from the large-scale production of dedicated energy crops. The framework incorporates producer economic decision models with environmental models to assess changes in land use patterns and to quantify the consequent environmental impacts. Economic and policy issues that will affect decisions to produce energy crops are discussed. The framework is used to evaluate erosion and chemical runoff in two Tennessee regions. The analysis shows that production of dedicated energy crops in place of conventional crops will significantly reduce erosion and chemical runoff.     

PESTICIDES IN GROUND WATER: DO ATRAZINE METABOLITES MATTER?1

ABSTRACT: Atrazine and atrazine-residue (atrazine + two metabolites - deethylatrazine and deisopropylatrazine) concentrations were examined to determine if consideration of these atrazine metabolites substantially adds to our understanding of the distribution of this pesticide in groundwater of the midcontinental United States. The mean of atrazine.residue concentrations was 53 percent greater than that of atrazine alone for those observations above the detection limit (> 0.05 μg/l). Furthermore, a censored regression analysis using atrazine-residue concentrations revealed significant factors not identified when only atrazine concentrations were used. Thus, knowledge of concentrations of these atrazine metabolites is required to obtain a true estimation of risk of using these aquifers as sources for drinking water, and such knowledge also provides information that ultimately may be important for future management policies designed to reduce atrazine concentrations in ground water.