南海重点海洋倾倒区表层沉积物富集特征及其潜在生态风险评价

根据2005南海三个重点海洋倾倒区,即九澳岛重点海洋倾倒区、黄茅岛重点海洋倾倒区、汕头重点海洋倾倒区的监测,分析其表层沉积物重金属的监测资料,采用富集系数法和Hakanson潜在生态危害系数法对其富集度和潜在生态危害程度进行了分析和评价.结果表明:在三个倾倒区表层沉积物所监测的重金属中,Cu和Pb元素的富集度相对最高,Hg和Cd元素的富集度较低,从空间上看,潜在生态危害系数评价结果显示,南海三个重点海洋倾倒区表层沉积物中的重金属对海洋生态系统的潜在生态危害非常轻微,均属于轻微潜在生态危害范畴,其中轻微潜在生态危害程度相对较重的是Cd和Hg元素,Cu和Pb元素的轻微生态危害程度较轻.     

公众灾害风险可接受性与避灾意愿的初探——以川渝地区旱灾风险为例

在综述前人研究的基础上,以川渝地区旱灾为例,通过实地调查与访谈,从公众可接受的旱灾损失与频率、假定旱灾风险情景下的避险意愿等角度,对公众旱灾风险可接受性进行了初步探讨。结果表明,公众合理可接受的旱灾损失与频率分别在26.5%~52.8%与32.0%~64.3%区间范围内;并以一般旱灾、严重旱灾风险情景为限制线,确定了公众合理可接受风险区域;随着灾害损失风险增加,公众规避风险投资意愿呈现出中间高两头低的趋势,当灾害损失达到约50%~70%时,公众避险投资意愿达到最高,意愿避险投资占可能损失的比重约为62%。鉴于川渝地区的旱灾形势,今后旱灾风险管理的关键,一是加强对旱灾的监测与预警预报;二是完善旱灾风险的常规化管理,发展高效灌溉农业,充分利用客水资源,完善提高现有农田水网建设;三是积极探索公众-企业-政府多方共同参与的高效风险管理模式。     

Characterizing ionic species in PM2:5 and PM10 in four Pearl River Delta cities, South China

PM_(2.5)and PM_(10)samples were collected at four major cities in the Pearl River Delta(PRD),South China,during winter and summer in 2002.Six water-soluble ions,Na~ ,NH_4~ ,K~ ,Cl~-,NO_3~- and SO_4~(2-)were measured using ion chromatography.On average,ionic species accounted for 53.3% and 40.5% for PM_(2.5)and PM_(10),respectively in winter and 39.4% and 35.2%,respectively in summer. Secondary ions such as sulfate,nitrate and ammonium accounted for the major part of the total ionic species.Sulfate was the most abundant species followed by nitrate.Overall,a regional pollution tendency was shown that there were higher concentrations of sulfate, nitrate and ammonium in Guangzhou City than those in the other PRD cities.Significant seasonal variations were also observed with higher levels of species in winter but lower in summer.The Asian monsoon system was favorable for removal and diffusion of air pollutants in PRD in summer while highly loading of local industrial emissions tended to deteriorate the air quality as well.NO_3~-/SO_4~(2-) ratio indicated that mobile sources have considerably contribution to the urban aerosol,and stationary sources should not be neglected. Besides the primary emissions,complex atmospheric reactions under favorable weather conditions should be paid more attention for the control of primary emission in the PRD region.     

长江上游山丘区土地承载力研究与评价——以四川省宜宾市为例

我国是一个以山地为主的国家,耕地有限且以山丘坡耕地为主,协调人地关系非常重要.以四川省宜宾市为例,通过土地资源生产潜力和人口数量预测模型的建立,采用环境容量等级系数计算和等级划分方法,对基于水土流失和生态工程建设作用下的长江上游流域山丘区土地利用类型与格局的变化及其它人类活动对土地承载力的影响进行了研究与评价.研究结果表明,宜宾市土地资源的生产潜力在2010、2015、2020年时总体上都能承载3种生活类型条件下的人口数量,3种生活类型下的容量等级基本都在"3"以上,即达到"满足"水平,并呈现出向"富余"水平提高的趋势,这表明尚具有较大潜力和空间的土地承载力是宜宾区域经济发展的有利驱动因素,人类活动对土地承载力产生的影响在可承受的生态阈值之内,为长江上游流域及我国广大山丘地区的生态环境建设和区域发展提供了可靠依据.     

北京与津冀之间隐性土地资源流动研究

京津冀区域面临着严重的资源紧缺、生态环境恶化和发展失衡的问题,亟需制定科学合理的区域合作新机制。京津冀之间紧密的产品贸易背后隐藏的土地资源流动情况可以为新机制的建立提供科学支撑。这种隐性土地资源的流通情况可以用生态足迹来表征。因此,本研究主要运用京津冀三省市之间的投入产出矩阵来计算北京与津冀之间的生态足迹转入和转出量,并进行分析。研究结果表明,北京的社会经济发展需要周边津冀生态生产性土地资源的支撑,尤其是河北的农用地资源,包括耕地、林地和水产养殖用地。从生态贸易类型来看,2002年和2007年,就北京和河北之间生态足迹流通情况而言,北京是净生态输入型,属于"贸易逆差";河北是净生态输出型,属于"贸易顺差"。2007年北京对津冀生态资源的使用量比2002年有所下降。总体而言,北京对河北生态生产性土地资源的消耗对河北的生态压力不大,其中,水产养殖用地的生态压力最大,2007年水产养殖净流量占河北水产养殖土地的54.27%。2002年北京对天津生态生产性土地资源的依赖加大了天津的生态压力,林业用地和水产养殖用地的净流出量分别是天津相应承载土地面积的4.96倍和3.57倍;2007年,北京对天津生态土地资源利用程度降低,随之,北京对天津生态生产性土地资源的压力变小。尽管2007年与2002年相比,北京对河北生态生产性土地的消耗量降低了,但是,由于河北土地利用结构的变化影响着北京和区域的可利用的土地资源质量和生态环境质量,国家和北京应该帮助河北保护其土地资源,尤其是河北东南部的农田资源在区域中承担着重要的绿色隔离作用,应该受到严格的保护。此外,京津冀区域应该制定整体空间开发战略,加强土地资源保护力度,合理布局产业结构,构建生态安全格局。     

基于地面监测数据的2013~2015年长三角地区PM2.5时空特征

近年来,长三角地区灰霾天气持续增多,空气细颗粒物污染问题日益突出。基于2013年1月至2015年5月长三角地区及周边缓冲区内共214个空气质量监测站点PM_2.5逐时监测数据,运用普通克里金插值方法,从年、季、月尺度上分析了PM_2.5的空间分布格局和时间动态变化。结果表明:(1)2 a来,长三角地区PM_2.5浓度空间分布明显呈现整体北部高南部低,局部地区略有突出的分布特征;长三角地区PM_2.5浓度年均值为57.08μg/m³;其中,江苏省PM_2.5的年均值为三省市最高,为65.84μg/m³;其次为上海市,年均值为53.87μg/m³;浙江省PM_2.5的年均值较小,为51.53μg/m³。(2)从季节尺度分析,长三角地区PM_2.5浓度变化表现出冬春季高,夏秋季低的变化趋势;这与区域内冬季风向来源、降水稀少、气象扩散条件差有着密切的关系; (3)长三角地区月浓度变化大致呈U形分布; 12月份PM_2.5浓度最高; 3月份以后, PM_2.5浓度开始呈逐步下降趋势;在5~9月份,区域PM_2.5处于"U"字的谷底,其中6月份夏收时期秸秆焚烧、气象等因素导致PM_2.5浓度有略微升高;进入10月份后迅速攀升,且11、12月份呈现持续升高态势。     

A highly resolved temporal and spatial air pollutant emission inventory for the Pearl River Delta region, China and its uncertainty assessment

A highly resolved temporal and spatial Pearl River Delta (PRD) regional emission inventory for the year 2006 was developed with the use of best available domestic emission factors and activity data. The inventory covers major emission sources in the region and a bottom–up approach was adopted to compile the inventory for those sources where possible. The results show that the estimates for SO₂, NO_x, CO, PM₁₀, PM_2.5 and VOC emissions in the PRD region for the year 2006 are 711.4 kt, 891.9 kt, 3840.6 kt, 418.4 kt, 204.6 kt, and 1180.1 kt, respectively. About 91.4% of SO₂ emissions were from power plant and industrial sources, and 87.2% of NO_x emissions were from power plant and mobile sources. The industrial, mobile and power plant sources are major contributors to PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 emissions, accounting for 97.7% of the total PM₁₀ and 97.2% of PM_2.5 emissions, respectively. Mobile, biogenic and VOC product-related sources are responsible for 90.5% of the total VOC emissions. The emissions are spatially allocated onto grid cells with a resolution of 3 km × 3 km, showing that anthropogenic air pollutant emissions are mainly distributed over PRD central-southern city cluster areas. The preliminary temporal profiles were established for the power plant, industrial and on-road mobile sources. There is relatively low uncertainty in SO₂ emission estimates with a range of −16% to +21% from power plant sources, medium to high uncertainty for the NO_x emissions, and high uncertainties in the VOC, PM_2.5, PM₁₀ and CO emissions.     

贯通巷道风流流场数值模拟若干关键问题研究

根据计算流体力学基本理论,利用计算流体动力学(CFD)软件Fluent,运用三维k-ε湍流模型对贯通型巷道风流流场数值模拟中风流入口、出口位置对巷道风流流场分布的影响、湍动能k及湍动能耗散率ε的取值对模拟结果的影响等进行考察。通过研究确定模拟巷道的流体力学入口长度,确定模拟巷道出口位置;湍动能k及湍动能耗散率ε的取值对入口附近流动还没有充分发展区域拟解算的结果影响较大,而对流动充分发展的区域影响较小。将数值模拟风速值与理论计算风速值进行对比,模拟结果与计算结果非常一致,验证了数值模拟方法的正确性,为研究贯通型巷道风流传质过程、瓦斯运移规律及通风排污效率等提供了理论基础。     

Climate dynamics and extreme precipitation and flood events in Central Europe

Past changes and possible future variations in the nature of extreme precipitation and flood events in Central Europe and the Alpine region are examined from a physical standpoint. An overview is given of the following key contributory physical processes: (1) the variability of the large-scale atmospheric flow and the associated changes of the North-Atlantic storm track; (2) the feedback process between climate warming and the water cycle, and in particular the potential for more frequent heavy precipitation events; and (3) the catchment-scale hydrological processes associated with variations in major river flooding events and that are related to land-use changes, river training measures, and shifts in the proportion of rain to snowfall. In this context an account is provided of the possible future forecasting and warning methodologies based upon high-resolution weather prediction and runoff models. Also consideration is given to the detectability of past (future) changes in observed (modeled) extreme events. It is shown that their rarity and natural fluctuation largely impedes a detection of systematic variations. These effects restrict trend analysis of such events to return periods of below a few months. An illustration using daily precipitation from the Swiss Alps does yield evidence for pronounced trends of intense precipitation events (return period 30 days), while trends of stronger event classes are not detectable (but nevertheless can not be excluded). The small detection probability for extreme events limits possible mitigation of future damage costs through an abatement of climate change alone, and points to the desirability of developing improved early forecasting/warning systems as an additional no-regret strategy. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

提高乌鲁木齐市水磨沟区植被覆盖率的设想

通过对乌鲁木齐市水磨沟区植被的现状调查和对存在问题的分析,结合生态示范区建设指标体系,提出提高该区植被覆盖率及改善生态环境的设想。