近50年中国温带地区不同景观带气温变化对比研究

运用线性趋势分析、气候倾向率分析和Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法对中国1962年-2011年温带地区不同景观带气温数据进行分析,研究温带地区不同景观带气温变化趋势以及气温突变状况,分析气温变化的异同。研究结果表明：近50年中国温带地区森林、草原、荒漠三个景观带的年平均气温、四季气温、年平均最高、最低气温都呈现显著增加的趋势,且均存在突变现象,虽然同属温带地区,但是气温增长速率及突变时间存在差异。温带草原带和温带森林带是气候变化的敏感区。     

基于区域梯度式学习情景的长江经济带环境治理研究

长江经济带作为国家重大战略,面临开发与保护的巨大挑战,构建科学、高效的生态环境保护机制为其保驾护航成为重中之重。作为一个流域式生态共同体,区域统筹协调下的生态环境保护和治理是根本关键。本研究导入区域协同治理理念,提出构建梯度式渐进学习环境协同治理框架,并采用数据进行长江经济带环境污染治理的多情景测度与评价实证检验了梯度间以及梯度内部的环境保护与污染治理协调机制的潜在影响。最终,从中央、区域和地方三个层面提出梯度式学习视野下长江经济带环境治理策略。     

(Why) did Desertec fail? An interim analysis of a large-scale renewable energy infrastructure project from a Social Studies of Technology perspective

ABSTRACT

In 2009 the Desertec Industrial Initiative (DII) was founded by several, predominant German enterprises. The objective of DII was to organise the conditions for the realisation of the Desertec idea, which aimed to both (a) supply Europe, in a large-scale manner, with electricity produced in solar power plants in North Africa and the Arabic peninsula and (b) contribute to the self-supply of the Middle East North Africa region (MENA). Protagonists of the desert energy idea saw this megatechnic project as a starting point for a new trans-Mediterranean EU-MENA union, critics in contrast as a neo-colonial project. Disputes over the adequate interpretation and implementation of the Desertec idea broke out from the beginning. In 2014/2015, the media talked of the failure of DII and of the Desertec concept. The majority of the members left DII at the end of 2014. On the other hand, in some MENA countries renewables are playing a crucial role in securing the future of the energy sector. This paper analyses the development of DII and the Desertec idea by using concepts from Social Studies in Technology, and especially by the multi-level perspective approach in Transition Studies. It shows how the interplay of different factors, such as technological developments, entrepreneurial performances and political processes, lead to internal conflicts and the non-realisation – up to now – of related large-scale energy projects. As an important aspect of the paper, different understandings of the future of our energy supply and of North–South relations are presented in detail.     

Assessing the effectiveness of specially protected areas for conservation of Antarctica's botanical diversity

Vegetation is sparsely distributed over Antarctica's ice‐free ground, and distinct plant communities are present in each of the continent's 15 recently identified Antarctic Conservation Biogeographic Regions (ACBRs). With rapidly increasing human activity in Antarctica, terrestrial plant communities are at risk of damage or destruction by trampling, overland transport, and infrastructure construction and from the impacts of anthropogenically introduced species, as well as uncontrollable pressures such as fur seal (Arctocephalus gazella) activity and climate change. Under the Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty, the conservation of plant communities can be enacted and facilitated through the designation of Antarctic Specially Protected Areas (ASPAs). We examined the distribution within the 15 ACBRs of the 33 ASPAs whose explicit purpose includes protecting macroscopic terrestrial flora. We completed the first survey using normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) satellite remote sensing to provide baseline data on the extent of vegetation cover in all ASPAs designated for plant protection in Antarctica. Large omissions in the protection of Antarctic botanical diversity were found. There was no protection of plant communities in 6 ACBRs, and in another 6, <0.4% of the ACBR area was included in an ASPA that protected vegetation. Protected vegetation cover within the 33 ASPAs totaled 16.1 km² for the entire Antarctic continent; over half was within a single protected area. Over 96% of the protected vegetation was contained in 2 ACBRs, which together contributed only 7.8% of the continent's ice‐free ground. We conclude that Antarctic botanical diversity is clearly inadequately protected and call for systematic designation of ASPAs protecting plant communities by the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Parties, the members of the governing body of the continent.     

Effects of premixed methane concentration on distribution of flame region and hazard effects in a tube and a tunnel gas explosion

Study of flame distribution laws and the hazard effects in a tunnel gas explosion accident is of great importance for safety issue. However, it has not yet been fully explored. The object of present work is mainly to study the effects of premixed gas concentration on the distribution law of the flame region and the hazard effects involving methane-air explosion in a tube and a tunnel based on experimental and numerical results. The experiments were conducted in a tube with one end closed and the other open. The tube was partially filled with premixed methane-air mixture with six different premixed methane concentrations. Major simulation works were performed in a full-scale tunnel with a length of 1000 m. The first 56 m of the tunnel were occupied by methane–air mixture. Results show that the flame region is always longer than the original gas region in any case. Concentration has significant effects on the flame region distribution and the explosion behaviors. In the tube, peak overpressures and maximum rates of overpressure rise (dp/dt)_max for mixtures with lower and higher concentrations are great lower than that for mixtures close to stoichiometric concentration. Due to the gas diffusion effect, not the stoichiometric mixture but the mixture with a slightly higher concentration of 11% gets the highest peak overpressure and the shock wave speed along the tube. In the full-scale tunnel, for fuel lean and stoichiometric mixture, the maximum peak combustion rates is achieved before arriving at the boundary of the original methane accumulation region, while for fuel rich mixture, the maximum value appears beyond the region. It is also found that the flame region for the case of stoichiometric mixture is the shortest as 72 m since the higher explosion intensity shortens the gas diffusion time. The case for concentration of 13% can reach up to a longest value of 128 m for longer diffusion time and the abundant fuel. The “serious injury and death” zone caused by shock wave may reach up to 3–8 times of the length of the original methane occupied region, which is the widest damage region.     

中国参与经济全球化的区域格局响应研究

以加入WTO为标志.中国积极参与经济全球化已成为一种必然.但由于我国的国土规模、自然环境、气候条件等方面的地区差异很大,地区之间在发展水平上一直存在着差距,地区发展不平衡是个长期的国内政治经济现象.这种地区发展的差距表现为各类地区融入经济全球化的程度不同,反应不同.有些地区能够借助经济的全球化而发展自身,有些地区则无法从中受益,甚至因而处于更加落后的境地.本文从三大经济地带、各经济区和各省(市)区三个屡次分析和探讨了不同区域对经济全球化响应的差异,并对全球化条件下我国内部区域一体化格局进行了深入的研究.     

ArcGIS支持下的样本稀疏山区空间插值模拟探讨

样本稀疏地区空间插值法对区域化变量的精准管理具有重要意义。基于ArcGIS 90，在分析土壤属性空间分布特征的基础上，提出并构建了基于不同土壤类型的土壤特性空间预测模拟模型，对比了传统方法与改进方法空间插值精度，实现了数值插值在复杂地理环境区域的应用，得到以下结论：(1)基于经度、纬度、海拔高度及坡度等地理因子的土壤基础环境因子的空间预测模拟模型，突破以往只能描述土壤属性在水平方向变化的局限，较客观、合理地反映土壤属性随地理位置及海拔高度的立体变化特征；(2)基于不同土壤类型回归模型来增加样本点以推断评价指标在无取样地区的分布状况的处理方式具有一定的数学理论支撑，有效降低了插值误差，提高了评价精度，使评价结果更加接近现实。     

植被对黄土高原沟壑区坡地土壤有机碳的影响

选取高原沟壑区王东沟流域内典型的治理坡段,研究不同植被条件下土壤有机碳、氮的含量变化和坡面分布特征。结果表明:与荒草(白羊草)群落相比,油松群落条件下,土壤有机碳含量提高9.3%(P>0.05),而果园土壤有机碳含量降低40.1%(P<0.05)。沙棘、侧柏和刺槐群落下,土壤有机碳含量虽低于荒草群落,但尚未达到显著水平(P>0.05)。果园和刺槐群落下坡面有机碳变化趋势不明显;杏树群落下表现为坡中部含量高,上部和下部低;白羊草群落下坡面有机碳含量从上到下逐渐增加。不同植被条件下土壤全氮与土壤有机碳存在极显著(R²=0.925)的相关关系。     

污灌区农田土壤环境质量评价

分别利用主成分分析法和内梅罗污染指数法对取自鞍山的6种不同类型农田(弃耕地、旱田、菜田、大棚、污灌稻田和清灌稻田)的土壤环境质量进行评价.结果表明,农田种植和灌溉方式的不同会在区域农田土壤污染物含量和土壤环境质量上表现出较明显的差异性.6种类型农田中,弃耕地的土壤环境质量最好,以下依次是菜田、旱田、清灌稻田和大棚,污灌稻田的土壤环境质量最差.利用内梅罗污染指数法和主成分分析法对6种类型农田土壤的评价结果基本一致,除菜田和旱田的排序结果略有不同外,对其他4种类型农田土壤环境质量的评价结果完全一致.主成分分析法可以用于土壤环境质量评价和土壤污染物的定量化识别.      

绿洲-荒漠交错带土地利用/覆盖时空变化研究

选择新疆于田县为研究区,从导致区域生态环境问题的主要驱动因素--土地利用/覆盖变化(LUCC)为出发点,以遥感技术为依托,对3个时相的陆地卫星数据及相关统计资料进行了处理,利用得到的土地覆盖差值图像,定量分析评价了该区域1979-2001年的时空变化趋势及其主要驱动机制.结果表明:造成绿洲-荒漠交错带生态环境变化的原因主要是绿洲人口数量的剧增以及过渡樵采等,不合理的水土资源利用导致绿洲荒漠化和交错带地下水位下降.绿洲-荒漠交错带普遍存在植被覆盖度大面积下降现象,原先连续的过渡带已有转化成生态裂谷的趋势,绿洲的屏障作用进一步降低.在绿洲外围风沙前沿地带,地表裸露、松散,在起沙风的作用下,流沙侵入农田,进一步恶化了本已很贫瘠而又脆弱的农业生态环境.因此,现阶段绿洲外围生态环境较为恶劣,整体处于不稳定状况.