梯级水库设计洪水地区组成研究中的JC法

工程上分析设计洪水地区组成时，希望能够求得最不利情况与最可能情况的权衡点，然而按照现行规范中提出的方法却难以达到这一目的，尤其对于梯级水库。引入JC法进行了梯级洪水地区组成研究，直接寻求最不利的洪水组成情况，该法还可定量计算设计洪水风险，为现行洪水地区组成方案研究提供了新思路和新方法。     

从地气耦合角度讨论沙漠的成因

沙漠的成因是干燥气候和强大风力的产物.中国的大沙漠多在地壳运动相对稳定的地区,如塔里木地区、准噶尔地区、阿拉善地区、鄂尔多斯地区以及内蒙古东部地区等,因此可以认为,可能还有地下因素参与了沙漠的形成.其形成机制可能是:地壳运动稳定地区地下的携热水汽或其他携带热量的气体不易逸出,这样就不易在稳定地区大气中造成低气压状态,因而不易吸引冷热气团来交会降雨以及不易形成水汽的垂直对流降雨,这些后果叠加在更大范围的气候干燥背景上,使这些地区更加干旱,于是形成大沙漠.这种沙漠的扩展又在一些原来不是沙漠的农业区形成沙漠或沙地.     

快速工业化区域建设用地问题与制度优化研究——以佛山市南海区为例

快速工业化区域是工业化快速发展、工业化水平迅速提升、经济社会结构急剧变化的新兴地域类型。普遍存在着建设用地总量急剧扩张、空间无序分散、城乡缺乏统筹等问题。本文从佛山市南海区典型案例入手，运用新制度经济学原理。归纳和解析了快速工业化区域城乡建设用地的主要问题，认为双二元管理体制、农村土地产权不完善、城乡土地市场发育不平衡和部门规划不协调等是建设用地发展的主要体制性障碍因素，并从管理、产权、市场、规划等方面系统提出相应的制度优化对策。     

东北典型黑土区耕地轮作休耕的空间重构

轮作休耕是保障黑土区耕地资源可持续利用的重要手段。科学合理确定粮食作物轮作休耕的耕地利用规模及空间分布,对实现黑土区耕地修养生息、提升地力和平衡粮食供求结构具有重要意义。以东北典型黑土区——克山县、拜泉县和依安县为研究区,运用作物种植空间适宜性评价模型、多目标优化（MOP）模型和智能体土地布局优化配置（AgentLA）模型,基于地块尺度构建耕地轮作和休耕布局,适度调整轮作休耕规模及分布。结果发现：（1）研究区主要作物种植适宜性高值和低值区存在明显空间差异。玉米和大豆种植适宜性高值区交汇于依安县北部和克山县西部,是玉米—大豆轮作优势区域。主要作物种植适宜性低值区交汇于依安县南部和拜泉县西南部,是休耕的重点区域。（2）基于种植结构优化的轮作规模实现了大豆种植比例增加和玉米种植比例减少,缓解了目前玉米阶段性供大于求、大豆供给不足的现实矛盾。通过设定多种粮食供求情景确定休耕规模有利于灵活应对粮食市场变动。（3）兼顾耕地空间适宜性和集聚性的轮作休耕布局有利于充分利用耕地资源禀赋比较优势、发展规模化经营,对提高耕地利用效率具有重要作用。研究通过科学重构黑土区耕地轮作和休耕空间布局,实现了耕地空间适宜性、空间集聚性、种植结构合理性和粮食供求稳定性的同步提升,为实现黑土区耕地资源合理可持续利用和粮食安全提供政策参考。     

长三角地区生态城镇化空间格局及影响因素

生态城镇化作为新型城镇化的重要组成部分,是生态文明理念的具体实践。以长三角地区41个城市为研究区域,构建区域生态城镇化指标体系,测度2000—2018年生态城镇化的发展水平,探究生态城镇化指数的时空演化特征及影响因素的作用机制。结果表明：（1）长三角地区生态城镇化水平整体呈上升趋势,高值区逐渐在浙江集聚,低值区在江苏北部和安徽北部集中,各城市生态城镇化指数差距逐渐缩小,区域生态一体化程度不断提高。（2）长三角地区生态城镇化水平的空间自相关性逐渐增强,其空间演化具有较强的变动性、依赖性和整合性,变动性自西至东逐渐减弱,依赖性自西北至东南逐渐增强。（3）财政投入水平、城乡收入差距、工业发展水平、土地投资强度、人口密集程度和科技发展水平对长三角地区生态城镇化水平的影响依次降低,在众多因素的综合作用下,各城市生态城镇化水平逐渐趋同。加强区域生态一体化建设,提高区域生态城镇化水平,是建设美丽中国的有效途径,也是实现区域高质量发展的必然选择。     

Rural vehicle emission as an important driver for the variations of summertime tropospheric ozone in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during 2014–2019

Tropospheric ozone (O₃) pollution is increasing in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region despite a significant decline in atmospheric fine aerosol particles (PM_2.5) in recent years. However, the intrinsic reason for the elevation of the regional O₃ is still unclear. In this study, we analyzed the spatio-temporal variations of tropospheric O₃ and relevant pollutants (PM_2.5, NO₂, and CO) in the BTH region based on monitoring data from the China Ministry of Ecology and Environment during the period of 2014–2019. The results showed that summertime O₃ concentrations were constant in Beijing (BJ, 0.06 µg/(m³•year)) but increased significantly in Tianjin (TJ, 9.09 µg/(m³•year)) and Hebei (HB, 6.06 µg/(m³•year)). Distinct O₃ trends between Beijing and other cities in BTH could not be attributed to the significant decrease in PM_2.5 (from -5.08 to -6.32 µg/(m³•year)) and CO (from -0.053 to -0.090 mg/(m³•year)) because their decreasing rates were approximately the same in all the cities. The relatively stable O₃ concentrations during the investigating period in BJ may be attributed to a faster decreasing rate of NO₂ (BJ: -2.55 µg/(m³•year); TJ: -1.16 µg/(m³•year); HB: -1.34 µg/(m³•year)), indicating that the continued reduction of NO_x will be an effective mitigation strategy for reducing regional O₃ pollution. Significant positive correlations were found between daily maximum 8 hr average (MDA8) O₃ concentrations and vehicle population and highway freight transportation in HB. Therefore, we speculate that the increase in rural NO_x emissions due to the increase in vehicle emissions in the vast rural areas around HB greatly accelerates regional O₃ formation, accounting for the significant increasing trends of O₃ in HB.     

Addressing transboundary conservation challenges through marine spatial prioritization

The Adriatic and Ionian Region is an important area for both strategic maritime development and biodiversity conservation in the European Union (EU). However, given that both EU and non‐EU countries border the sea, multiple legal and regulatory frameworks operate at different scales, which can hinder the coordinated long‐term sustainable development of the region. Transboundary marine spatial planning can help overcome these challenges by building consensus on planning objectives and making the trade‐offs between biodiversity conservation and its influence on economically important sectors more explicit. We address this challenge by developing and testing 4 spatial prioritization strategies with the decision‐support tool Marxan, which meets targets for biodiversity conservation while minimizing impacts to users. We evaluated these strategies in terms of how priority areas shift under different scales of target setting (e.g., regional vs. country level). We also examined the trade‐off between cost‐efficiency and how equally solutions represent countries and maritime industries (n = 14) operating in the region with the protection‐equality metric. We found negligible differences in where priority conservation areas were located when we set targets for biodiversity at the regional versus country scale. Conversely, the prospective impacts on industries, when considered as costs to be minimized, were highly divergent across scenarios and biased the placement of protection toward industries located in isolation or where there were few other industries. We recommend underpinning future marine spatial planning efforts in the region through identification of areas of national significance, transboundary areas requiring cooperation between countries, and areas where impacts on maritime industries require careful consideration of the trade‐off between biodiversity conservation and socioeconomic objectives.     

干旱区云凝结核分布及其影响因子的观测研究

利用DMT CCN仪对宁夏盐池、银川地区地面及高空的云凝结核(CCN)进行实时连续观测.大量资料分析结果表明, CCN日变化明显,受人为因素影响,清晨和傍晚出现高值.夜晚温度与CCN浓度呈正相关,白天相反;强降水对CCN具有一定冲刷作用;沙尘气溶胶没有有效增加盐池地区的CCN浓度.与华北地区比较,银川、盐池地区CCN浓度偏低.此外,研究表明,过饱和度越高,活化CCN浓度越大.根据N=CSK拟合活化谱,银川属于典型大陆性核谱.由于云内清除作用,高空CCN浓度下降明显,但逆温层的存在使得该区CCN浓度累积增加.     

喀斯特地区白三叶形态和遗传多样性研究

白三叶（Trifolium repens）的形态学特征随利用年限的增加而进化,单株叶数、生长点数、中叶长、中叶长宽比以及种群内个体之间变异性随着年限的增加而增加,而叶层高度、中叶宽则下降。三个不同年龄草地的平均单株叶质量、根质量、地上生物量、地上生物量与地下生物量的比值等指标数值接近,差异不显著。但是,与茎有关的指标如茎质量等差异显著,匍匐茎生物量随年限的增加而增加,以回避动物采食等干扰,并有利于占据动态空斑而增加种群的持久性。100年白三叶的等位基因数没有20年的高,意味着年限越长的种群以少数大克隆体占优势。     

针对大尺度区域的大气环境容量综合估算方法

针对大尺度区域的特点,提出了将箱模型法、模拟法与线性规划法相结合的大气环境容量估算方法.其基本思路是将大尺度区域划分为一系列小区域,将真实污染源简化为源单元,基于线性规划法寻求区域最大容量及其优化配置方案.采用箱模型以保证源单元尺度的环境质量要求,采用模拟法以考虑二次污染对前体物环境容量的制约,将箱模型容量与模拟法容量作为规划法的约束条件.新方法使3种传统方法相互取长补短,其显著特征表现为:兼顾了污染源的局地性和区域性的影响;兼顾了污染物的一次影响和二次影响;大气环境容量的规划布局具有区域优化特征.应用新方法对我国东南沿海某区域进行了大气环境容量的评估试验,结果表明该方法合理可行.