COMPARISON OF TWO AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS FOR MONTHLY STREAM FLOW GENERATION1

ABSTRACT: Two autoregressive models for monthly stream flow generation are compared based on the reproduction of the historical record in terms of several important statistics such as the mean, standard deviation, skewness coefficient, correlation coefficient, and the reservoir storage components. In the comparison, both theoretical considerations and practical applications are employed to evaluate the performance of each model.     

基于层次分析法-熵权法的污染地块异味污染物优先度评价方法——以农药类污染地块为例

土壤中异味污染物的风险管控已成为我国农药化工等行业污染地块环境管理的迫切需求。为筛查土壤优先控制异味污染物,研究基于土壤中挥发性异味污染物的迁移、暴露过程和危害效应的系统量化与分析,建立了污染地块异味污染物优先度评价指标体系;采用层次分析法-熵权法确定指标综合评价权重,分析了异味污染物优先度的影响因素,并选取3个农药类案例地块进行验证性评价。结果表明,构成地块异味污染物优先度排序指标体系第二层次的4个准则中,影响程度从高到低为：危害性、迁移性、防护性与暴露性;第三层次15个要素主客观综合权重范围为0.033 6~0.149 6,其中嗅阈值权重最高。案例地块异味污染物基于层次分析法-熵权法的优先度评价等级与基于实测数据通过异味活度值和健康风险影响评价的等级具有一致性。本研究结果可为异味污染地块优先控制异味污染物的筛查提供参考。     

生态足迹影响因子的定量分析

人口的膨胀和人类工业化进程的加剧，使得人类向自然界获取越来越多的资源，同时向环境源源不断的输入废弃物，已经严重超过了自然生态系统的供给能力和环境容量，生态环境日益恶化，水土流失、草场退化、植被消亡、生物多样性锐减、全球变暖等情况已经严重到难以遏制的地步，危及到人类自身的生存。在和平与发展成为世界两大主题的今天，人们越来越关注可持续发展的问题。在现有资料的基础上，利用主成分分析方法，定量地讨论了中国各省（区市）1999年生态足迹大小与其影响因子间的关系。结果表明，生态足迹的大小是各省（区市）的大中型企业个数、全社会固定生产投资等众多因子共同作用的结果，其中总人口和GDP是生态足迹大小的主要影响因子，其因子载荷量分别达到了0.940和0.913。值得一提的是非农业人口与生态足迹的相关系数超过了农业人口，这说明由于消费模式和生活水平等的差异，非农业人口对生态足迹的影响大于农业人口对生态足迹的影响。在此基础上建立了生态足迹影响因子的多元线性回归模型，以期为生态足迹在进行区域可持续发展评价的方法上提供新的思路。     

Artificial neural network modeling of caste odor discrimination based on cuticular hydrocarbons in termites

Summary. Individuals in an insect colony need to identify one another according to caste. Nothing is known about the sensory process allowing nestmates to discriminate minute variations in the cuticular hydrocarbon mixture. The purpose of this study was to attempt to model caste odors discrimination in four species of Reticulitermes termites for the first time by a non-linear mathematical approach using an "artificial neural network" (ANN). Several rounds of testing were carried out using 1 – the whole hydrocarbon mixtures 2 – mixtures containing the hydrocarbons selected by principal component analysis (PCA) as the most implicated in caste discrimination. Discrimination between worker and soldier castes was tested in all four species. For two species we tested discrimination of four castes (workers, soldiers, nymphs, neotenics). To test cuticular pattern similarity in two sibling species (R. santonensis and R. flavipes), we performed two experiments using one species for training and the other for query. Using whole hydrocarbons mixtures, worker/soldier discrimination was always successful in all species. Network performance decreased with the number of hydrocarbons used as inputs. Four-caste discrimination was less successful. In the experiment with the sibling species, the ANN was able to distinguish soldiers but not workers. The results of this study suggest that non-linear mathematical analysis is a good tool for classification of castes based on cuticular hydrocarbon mixture. In addition this study confirms that hydrocarbon mixtures observed are real chemical entities and constitute a true chemical signature or odor. Whole mixtures are not always necessary for discrimination. Received 23 July 1998; accepted 9 October 1998.     

活性炭滤池中微生物特征及其对溶解性有机碳的去除作用

采用异养菌总数计数（HPC）法检测了北京地区J水厂活性炭滤池中微生物量,并分析了活性炭滤池进出水中有机物的组成、活性炭的吸附作用及微生物作用对溶解性有机碳(DOC)去除的贡献率.结果表明,不同炭龄、不同运行周期活性炭滤池中的微生物量有显著的差异.由于溶解性可生物降解有机碳（BDOC）占溶解性有机碳（DOC）的比例较小,且受微生物数量、活性等因素的影响,微生物对DOC的去除效果极为有限,在1.5年和5年炭龄活性炭滤池中对DOC的去除率仅占总去除率的18.8%和26.4%.此外,微生物对较为敏感的嗅味物质2-MIB和geosmin去除作用也不显著,去除率在15%以下（初始浓度为100ng·L-1）;在使用5年活性炭滤池中,微生物对2-MIB和geosmin去除率为12%和14%,分别占总去除率的32%和29%.因此,北京地区地表水净水厂活性炭滤池中微生物对有机物控制的贡献率较低,对DOC的去除主要以活性炭的吸附为主.     

Main particulate matter components in Saxony (Germany)

Aerosol filter samples have been collected nearby the industrialised basin of Leipzig in Saxony (Germany) at the research station Melpitz of the Institut für Troposphärenforschung e.V. (IfT). Time series (1992–1998) and a three year comparison (1995–1997) of two different aerosol filter sampling systems, the Sierra-Andersen-PM 10 high volume sampler (daily sample, PM 10 inlet) and the Rupprecht and Patashnik Co. Inc. Model Partisol 2000 (weekly sample, PM 10 and PM 2.5 inlet) are presented and discussed. The comparison of the different sampling systems and strategies yields small differences between the daily and weekly samples for mass and different ions, which may be influenced by sampling duration and flow rates. A general trend of change in aerosol composition was observed: Soot and Sulphate concentrations decreased whereas Nitrate and Ammonium concentrations increased. During summers the mass of coarse particles is higher than in other seasons. One reason could be found in the occurence of longer periods of dry ground surfaces enabling reemission of crustal and biological material. The time series have been integrated in a longer historical aerosol mass trend for Saxony and do show a good agreement. Since 1990 a significant downward trend in gravimetric mass concentration was found.     

天津市PM2.5碳组分空间差异性及来源解析

2021年在天津市不同功能区共设置4个点位同步采集细颗粒物（PM_2.5）样品,测定了其中8种碳质亚组分的含量.结果表明,采样期间各点位ρ[有机碳（OC）]为3.7~4.4 μg·m^-3,ρ[元素碳（EC）]为1.6~1.7 μg·m^-3,OC浓度在中心城区最高,EC浓度差别较小.采用最小比值法对二次有机碳（SOC）进行估算,结果表明环城区二次污染较为突出,SOC占OC的比例达48.8%.各功能区碳质亚组分间的相关性强弱呈现出外围区>中心城区>环城区的特征,均表现出EC₁与OC₂和EC₁与OC₄相关性最强.正定矩阵因子（PMF）来源解析结果显示,道路扬尘源（9.7%~23.5%）、燃煤源（10.2%~13.3%）、柴油车尾气（12.6%~20.2%）和汽油车尾气（18.9%~38.8%）是天津市PM_2.5中碳组分的主要来源.不同功能区碳组分污染源存在差异,中心城区和外围区主要受汽油车尾气影响;环城区受二次污染和柴油车尾气的影响更为突出.     

Testicular DNA synthesis inhibition—an in vivo system for the detection of mutagenic and carcinogenic chemicals

By binding covalently to DNA chemical mutagens and carcinogens inhibit replication, which can be measured as a decrease in thymidine incorporation into DNA. This DNA synthesis inhibition (DSI) has been determined in testicular cells of mice for a large number of compounds and has been found to correlate very well with their known mutagenic and carcinogenic properties.

Not only could this test give a qualitative answer about potential carcinogenicity or mutagenicity, but, with regard to its in vivo characteristics, could furthermore give an indication of the carcinogenic and mutagenic potency and thus be of use in the risk evaluation of chemical substances; the relationship between the DNA synthesis inhibition and the underlying alkylation of guanine ‐0⁶ by different methylating agents is demonstrated.

As toxic effects decrease thymidine incorporation, too, means are discussed for distinguishing between “true”;, mutagenic, and “false”;, cytotoxic, DNA synthesis inhibition.

In conclusion, the implications of including the DSI‐test in a battery of mutagenicity tests are outlined.     

Sensitivity to biologically relevant odours may exceed the sum of component thresholds

Summary In four fruit-eating bats sniff-rate analysis revealed the threshold value for natural banana odour to be 1 × 10^–4 vol% of head-space while the threshold values for its major components were found to be 3–6 orders of magnitude higher; even the total of molecules present at the threshold dilution of banana odour was 2 orders of magnitude below the lowest threshold values obtained for single components. Thus, the responsiveness of the bats to threshold concentration of natural banana odour is discussed as an example of synergism of stimuli.     

畜禽粪便除臭及生物干燥技术研究进展

综述了近几年来国内外畜禽粪便除臭及脱水技术的研究进展,其中对生物干燥技术的发展进行了比较详细的介绍,以期推动我国畜禽粪便处理技术水平的提高。