A RISK-BASED MODEL FOR DROUGHT CONTINGENCY PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: A risk-based model is presented for determining action levels in real-time operation of public water supplies under drought conditions. The model, applicable to surface water supplies, is built around the almost universally adopted structure for drought management, a sequence of increasingly stringent measures to reduce demand. Action levels are determined by finding minimum storage levels that will satisfy a prescribed set of probability constraints over the remainder of a drawdown-refill cycle. Results are presented for the City of Raleigh, NC.     

DOMESTIC WASTEWATER TREATMENT BY PEATLANDS IN A NORTHERN CLIMATE: A WATER QUALITY STUDY1

ABSTRACT: The use of peatlands as the main form of wastewater treatment in a northern climate was studied for the James Bay Energy Society. The Fontanges campsite (70° 17′ 30″ W; 54° 34′ 00″ N) was chosen as the study site. In less than 1.5 km from the point of discharge BOD₅, COD, total hardness, inorganic carbon, orthophosphates, total phosphorus, ammonia and total nitrogen were reduced by at least 90 percent. The peatland treatment system studied is divided into four components, each having a specific function. The first part combines the action of microorganisms and adsorption on peat, thus reducing the organic content while increasing the inorganic constituents. The second part uses peat to adsorb the inorganic elements already present in the wastewater and those produced in the first part of the system. The third component acts as an aerator, increasing the dissolved oxygen and decreasing the BOD₅ levels of the water. The fourth part removes most of the remaining nutrients, thus acting like a tertiary treatment. Overall, peatlands seemed to be effective in treating domestic settled wastewater in a cold climate.     

MULTIOBJECTIVE DECISION MAKING TECHNIQUES FOR RESERVOIR OPERATION1

ABSTRACT: Six applications of multiobjective decision making techniques for finding optimal or satisfying operating rules for reservoir systems are presented. The examples include situations with hydropower vs. water supply (for irrigation), flood control vs. low flow augmentation, selection of an operating rule, low-flow vs. reliability, and low flow and recreation vs. water quality. The techniques applied include the constraint method, compromise programming, goal programming, Tchebycheff approach (max-mm), Consensus, and ELECTRE I and II.     

METEOROLOGICAL EXPERIMENTS FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITES

Four satellites have been used in meteorology. They are TIROS, ESSA, Nimbus, and Applications Technology Satellite (ATS). The first three operate in the orbital altitudes of about 1000 to 1200 km while the fourth, ATS, is at geosynchronous altitude of 36,000 km. Cloud cover is being observed operationally from low orbit and experimentally from synchronous altitude. Wind velocity has been inferred from the frequent cloud cover pictures taken by ATS and satellite-balloon systems are being developed which will locate and track constant-density level balloons for determining wind flow. Spectrometers and radiometers operating in the electromagnetic spectral region from the ultraviolet to the microwave region are being developed to quantitatively measure temperature, water vapor, density, and wind profiles. These will furnish data for the development and testing of atmospheric models for numerical prediction. In addition, experiments are being developed to measure ozone and other constituents of the air, solar energy, surface conditions, heat balance and other atmospheric attributes which affect the structure and dynamics of the atmosphere.     

A CODED ALGORITHM FOR CAPACITY EXPANSION OF A WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes a mathematical model, an algorithm and a computer program that were specially developed to study the problem of a water quality management system undergoing a rapidly increasing environmental stress. The model output will determine the locations, sizes and the timing of construction of new treatment plants plus an overall treatment plant operating policy so that environmental standards are maintained at a minimum cost. The model, as formulated, is a 0-1 mixed integer programming problem which is solved by decomposing it into a capital budgeting problem (solved by Little's branch and bound algorithm) and an operational policy problem (solved by linear programming). The coded algorithm (in FORTRAN 10) has been tested with a semi-realistic example.     

PROCEDURES FOR THE EVALUATION OF ENGINEERING ALTERNATIVES1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes a method of analyzing the nonquantifiable parameters which should be considered in the evaluation of engineering alternatives. The nonquantifiable parameters can include environmental impact, feasibility of implementation, and performance. The method considers rating all the alternatives on the basis of a set of criteria which reflect these parameters. A procedure is discussed for obtaining review and guidance in the evaluation of engineering alternatives from the local elected officials or governing bodies and for obtaining the views and desires of the local communities. This is achieved through the formation of project review committees and an evaluation procedure which allows for the technical rating of alternatives by the engineer and the weighing of the evaluation criteria by the political and social groups. With the growing environmental concern and the high cost of engineering projects, the involvement of the public during the evaluation of engineering projects is becoming increasingly important to the final success of the project.     

Rethinking receiver operating characteristic analysis applications in ecological niche modeling

The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) has become a dominant tool in evaluating the accuracy of models predicting distributions of species. ROC has the advantage of being threshold-independent, and as such does not require decisions regarding thresholds of what constitutes a prediction of presence versus a prediction of absence. However, we show that, comparing two ROCs, using the AUC systematically undervalues models that do not provide predictions across the entire spectrum of proportional areas in the study area. Current ROC approaches in ecological niche modeling applications are also inappropriate because the two error components are weighted equally. We recommend a modification of ROC that remedies these problems, using partial-area ROC approaches to provide a firmer foundation for evaluation of predictions from ecological niche models. A worked example demonstrates that models that are evaluated favorably by traditional ROC AUCs are not necessarily the best when niche modeling considerations are incorporated into the design of the test.     

落石冲击作用下架设油气管道响应分析

针对影响油气管道安全运营的落石冲击问题,基于弹塑性力学、Cowper-Symonds本构模型和有限元方法,建立了球形落石冲击油气管道的计算模型,对管道动态响应过程进行了数值模拟。对冲击速度、落石半径、管道内压力和落石冲击位置进行了参数敏感性分析,研究了各参数对管道冲击变形的影响规律。结果表明:落石的冲击能量主要用于管道塑性变形;冲击过程中,落石与管道的接触区域由初始的椭圆斑逐渐变成了椭圆环;管道塑性变形随着冲击速度和落石半径的增大而增大,随内压和落石偏移度的增大而减小。该研究工作为油气管道的安全评价及防护工程的设计提供了参考依据,对保障油气安全运输具有重要的工程意义。     

运行参数对水蚯蚓生物吸持六价铬性能影响研究

水蚯蚓能通过摄食剩余污泥而使污泥减量,但剩余污泥中常含有各种重金属污染物.本文以颤蚓科蠕虫(Tubificidae)为研究对象,以六价铬为典型重金属污染物,考察运行工艺参数:初始铬浓度、p H、水蚯蚓投加量和温度对水蚯蚓吸持六价铬的影响.实验结果表明,在研究浓度范围内(0.1~8.0 mg·L-1),水蚯蚓对六价铬的吸持速率随铬浓度的增大而加快,单位质量吸持量从14.4 mg·kg-1(以干重计,下同)增加到312.7 mg·kg-1,但六价铬的吸持率却随Cr6+初始浓度的增加而降低;p H从6.0增加到8.0,水蚯蚓对六价铬的吸持速率随p H的上升而提高,吸持率和单位质量吸持量先明显增强,p H达到7.5后逐渐趋于平衡,即吸持最佳p H为7.5;水蚯蚓投加量从1.0 g(以湿重计,下同)增加到5.0 g时,吸持速率及吸持率均上升,但单位质量吸持量却随着水蚯蚓投加量的增加而减少;当温度在10~20℃范围内时,水蚯蚓对六价铬的吸持速率相对较慢,到25℃时,吸持速率明显加快,吸持率和单位质量水蚯蚓的吸持量的变化趋势与吸持速率的变化相一致,但当温度达到30℃,水蚯蚓会大量死亡,综合考虑,处理系统最佳温度宜控制在25℃.     

Sub-lethal toxic effects of deltamethrin on blood biochemical parameters of Japanese quail,Coturnix japonica

Feeding deltamethrin-contaminated grains to domestic poultry, such as quails may result in toxic effects in these birds. This study was done to investigate the effects of recommended doses of deltamethrin, sometimes used in grain storage silos, on Japanese quail (Coturnix japonica). Quails were fed grains contaminated with 0.25 and 0.50 mg deltamethrin per kg diet for 21 days and the effects on survival and blood biochemical parameters were studied. Plasma uric acid, creatinine levels, and creatinine phosphokinase activity in the blood were increased. Aspartate aminotransferase and lactate dehydrogenase activities and glucose levels significantly increased in birds treated with the high dose of deltamethrin. Alanine aminotransferase activity and albumin or cholesterol levels were not changed, and acetylcholinesterase and alkaline phosphatase activities, total protein and globulin in plasma were decreased. Administration of 0.25 mg/kg deltamethrin caused increased blood triglyceride levels, 0.50 mg/kg deltamethrin decreased triglyceride levels.